moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Looks like primarily sleet for gc? No ice? Goid...my generator is on life support. Toast here in Essex. Ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Euro is in the gfs camp. Looks somewhat warmer aloft...not as warm as the NAM or GEM, but definitely warmer than GFS. Kind of a compromise. Euro would be pellets for pike region prior to 12z while GFS actually is still snowing at 12z for BOS-ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Guess I'll be up at 3am to see some flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 HRRR would be about 2-3" at Boston. Seems bullish. Tough forecast. It all depends if we can get a formidable initial band that does not move out or become fragmented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 Inch of snow here followed by zr by the looks of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 We may get an early oes bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 HRRR would be about 2-3" at Boston. Seems bullish. Tough forecast. It all depends if we can get a formidable initial band that does not move out or become fragmented.Yeah real tough forecast...nowcast if there ever was one. For most places north of I-90 or RT2 there's a wide range of possibilities...from 1-2" then sleet, to a 4-6" thump. Even up here, 3" then sleet wouldn't surprise me, but nor would 7" of snow and then sleet. When precip is falling at 0.1-0.15" per hour (that's what HRRR was showing) along the mix line, an extra hour of snow an be another 1-2". That's a tough call to make when being off by even 2 hours can bust big one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Let's get into ice mode here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yeah real tough forecast...nowcast if there ever was one. For most places north of I-90 or RT2 there's a wide range of possibilities...from 1-2" then sleet, to a 4-6" thump. Even up here, 3" then sleet wouldn't surprise me, but nor would 7" of snow and then sleet. When precip is falling at 0.1-0.15" per hour (that's what HRRR was showing) along the mix line, an extra hour of snow an be another 1-2". That's a tough call to make when being off by even 2 hours can bust big one way or another. I could see both sides. Initial high pressure provides a great frontogenic slope for uplift and precip. However, better dynamics are also west and north and don't move east until after dawn. Then there is the warm tongue. I can't see the euro specifics, but the GFS really cranks after 10-11z it appears and there is just enough cold. You can see strong convergence of the 850 LLJ over the coastline of SNE indicating strong lift and frontogenesis near 12z. My guess us euro is not as strong with that, and further N with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 We may get an early oes bonus. I've been wondering this too...early on around 06z, the LLs look too dry, but there could be some OES along the E coast of MA between 06z-09z or enhancement if the synoptic stuff has started by then. We have frigid temps near -10C at 900mb out of the east over the still warm ocean. So there could be some ice crystal production. I don't think the OES would last very long, but there could be a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 HRRR and WRF-NMM had some OES signal. Frankly, I thought it would be a stronger look on other mesos, but it will be there. Probably bands of flurries and maybe steadier band -SN that move inland as winds aloft go more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 don't forget also that the 700 mb inflow is going to pinch off as the last vestiges of the S/W smears through the confluence zone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 The 1/24 storm got pellets near Hubby and Ray I think, but this is much different. Strong 850-700 frontogenesis moves in after 9z, but the problem is that we may see this develop a little too late for even NE MA. I'd rather be up near Haverhill. My GF lives in Bradford. Will be her Dog's first snow. I know where I'll be!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Let's get into ice mode here South of pike own thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 From what I see from Ray up onto northern Middlesex and Essex will barely see rain if any. That is going snow then a ton of sleet. 850's are ice cold, 700mb torch, 30's at the surface. This is post main slug around 7-10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 South of pike own thread?Enjoy 1-2 of snow sleet up there. More than me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I'm about as emotionally invested in this storm as I am in the NY Giants making the playoffs. In other words, 0%. I've never like the looks of this from the get go as far as a warning criteria snow is concerned for the Mass Pike to Route 2 corridor. Too much WAA aloft and shallow cold. This will probably be 1-2" of front end snow if we're lucky for this region and then a pelt fest. I wonder if there will still be paint on the house or asphalt on the roof shingles by tomorrow. Given SWFE climo and the fact the best lift holds off a bit, WAA aloft will likely takeover before best omega gets in here, yielding lots of ice pellets. Well, at least it will put something on the ground and provide a good base for a snow pack if we should get more down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Enjoy 1-2 of snow sleet up there. More than meEnjoy your 1-2" and then enjoy me doubling it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Cold trend may not be done. With a high that strong , in that position.. House money says it's not done trending I'm glad I never invested in this event. Hopefully the icing occurs. I suspect folks in the I-90 corridor are going to be disappointed tomorrow..but maybe and hopefully it'll over perform for them Yes, thank god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yes, thank god. You can't script it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Yes, thank god.lol. And so it begins, granted about a month or so.late but at least we have the lolz to look forward to even if the snow chances are questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I'm about as emotionally invested in this storm as I am in the NY Giants making the playoffs. In other words, 0%. I've never like the looks of this from the get go as far as a warning criteria snow is concerned for the Mass Pike to Route 2 corridor. Too much WAA aloft and shallow cold. This will probably be 1-2" of front end snow if we're lucky for this region and then a pelt fest. I wonder if there will still be paint on the house or asphalt on the roof shingles by tomorrow. Given SWFE climo and the fact the best lift holds off a bit, WAA aloft will likely takeover before best omega gets in here, yielding lots of ice pellets. Well, at least it will put something on the ground and provide a good base for a snow pack if we should get more down the road. Was thinking the same thing...about the sleet that is, may want to cover the car up to keep the paint on, though I think I will transition to rain earlier than you.I actually thought we would get a better thumping, but as we got closer, that thought faded into sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 18z NAM continues to be ridiculously warm aloft. By 12z most of us are over to sleet. Up here it would be about 4" followed by scalping verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 lol. And so it begins, granted about a month or so.late but at least we have the lolz to look forward to even if the snow chances are questionable. Haha, the more questionable the snow chances, the better the posts are in hindsight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 32F past 495? toss that crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 18z NAM continues to be ridiculously warm aloft. By 12z most of us are over to sleet. Up here it would be about 4" followed by scalping verbatim. nam_ptype_slp_ne_7.png At 800mb, the NAM is +6C at ORH at 12z tomorrow while the GFS is -2C. What's 8C difference amongst friends less than 24 hours out? I think both are probably wrong, but it's amazing to see that much difference in two models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 18z NAM continues to be ridiculously warm aloft. By 12z most of us are over to sleet. Up here it would be about 4" followed by scalping verbatim. nam_ptype_slp_ne_7.png You can infer the mixing line from the HRRR reflectivity product. Pretty much SLK through CON by 12z tomorrow. I actually don't have a real issue with that depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 At 800mb, the NAM is +6C at ORH at 12z tomorrow while the GFS is -2C. What's 8C difference amongst friends less than 24 hours out? I think both are probably wrong, but it's amazing to see that much difference in two models. It is amazing. GFS would be snowing for you at 12z while the NAM is sleeting all the way up here at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 28, 2015 Author Share Posted December 28, 2015 New advisory from box has a half inch to two inches of snow the .25 of zr upped the ice potential from earlier wouldn't be surprised to see it upped even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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