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Late December miracle early next week!?


ineedsnow

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http://www.weather.gov/images/aly/winter/MaxSnowWeb.png

ALY new winter potential maps, I like what they've done in the last couple years with their forecast maps and illustrations... Bottom line, potential for 5-6 max, or 2-3 min w/ .1-.25" of ice...I'll stick with my initial 3-6 then glaze for my area, then rain and warmth.. Looks like my birthday storm has lost luster for next week though

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http://www.weather.gov/images/aly/winter/MaxSnowWeb.png

ALY new winter potential maps, I like what they've done in the last couple years with their forecast maps and illustrations... Bottom line, potential for 5-6 max, or 2-3 min w/ .1-.25" of ice...I'll stick with my initial 3-6 then glaze for my area, then rain and warmth.. Looks like my birthday storm has lost luster for next week though

Those estimates seem high given the sleet potential.

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GFS continues to be the most bullish which is sort of surprising as I would have expected it from the Euro. If anything, the GFS continues to tickle better each run. It does make sense to me as well. On the other hand, the EC is also stubborn with it's warm tongue it seems. It's still early too lock in on a solution where so many variables decide an outcome. A difference of 1-2F aloft for an hour or two may mean the difference of 2-3". The EC does make more sense to me in the lower levels. GFS too quick and too warm, especially inland I feel. They'll be a very weak secondary popping which should help lock in cold longer as winds stay more NE. Also have to watch overnight cold tuck south to perhaps ice things up again towards the coast.

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THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE NEW
MEXICO CURRY COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER.

HIGH WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW HAVE LED TO EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND
LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS IN CURRY COUNTY. SNOW DRIFTS OF AT
LEAST 8 FEET COMBINED WITH ZERO VISIBILITIES...WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. DO
NOT ATTEMPT TRAVEL AT THIS TIME.

 

some pretty serious stuff going on there. pretty jealous.

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Those are just max numbers..here is their best guess so far

I was more posting how impressed I am with their progress on winter graphics.. A couple years ago it was like a first grader drew it, now they have all that info...storm track, max/min, most likely, etc. But yea, I'm not expecting much more than a couple few inches at best. I think it's strange how warm 700 is compared to the 850 heights, something isn't right there

Screenshot_2015-12-27-08-15-32.png

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OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE

NORMAL TEMPERATURES MEANS THE GROUND IS NOT YET FROZEN IN MANY

PLACES. THIS WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE SNOW...IF IT DOES

NOT FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH.

I heard a local OCM say that too. Unfortunately those excuses continue to be like a bad drug habit for some mets to break. They keep going back to it.

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GFS continues to be the most bullish which is sort of surprising as I would have expected it from the Euro. If anything, the GFS continues to tickle better each run. It does make sense to me as well. On the other hand, the EC is also stubborn with it's warm tongue it seems. It's still early to lock in on a solution where so many variables decide an outcome. A difference of 1-2F aloft for an hour or two may mean the difference of 2-3". The EC does make more sense to me in the lower levels. GFS to quick and too warm, especially inland I feel. They'll be a very weak secondarr popping which should help lock in cold longer as winds stay more NE. Also have to watch overnight cold tuck south to perhaps ice things up again towards the coast.

Yeah GFS and euro have been fairly stubborn for 3 runs in a row. Not too far apart but the slight difference is like 7" for BOS vs maybe 3-4".

Still have another couple model suites to fine tune it.

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I heard a local OCM say that too. Unfortunately those excuses continue to be like a bad drug habit for some mets to break. They keep going back to it.

I think that's only valid if you're talking about anafrontal stuff where the ground is still warm for the rain that fell previously.  Pavements temps will be well below freezing when the snow starts with that antecedent airmass.

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Those are just max numbers..here is their best guess so far

I was more posting how impressed I am with their progress on winter graphics.. A couple years ago it was like a first grader drew it, now they have all that info...storm track, max/min, most likely, etc. But yea, I'm not expecting much more than a couple few inches at best. I think it's strange how warm 700 is compared to the 850 heights, something isn't right there

Screenshot_2015-12-27-08-15-32.png

 

Right, I agree its nice seeing the options they have available.  They do a decent job on FB too.

 

But yea, 4-6 Im thinking here before the switch.  Being on the western side of the Greens in this event, that warm air can fly up the HV.

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