Late December miracle early next week!?

[powderfreak]

That's a holy sh it run. We toss

 

That entire 18z GFS run is awesome.  Sick upslope event with the cold air dump at Day 7.

[Ginx snewx]

That entire 18z GFS run is awesome. Sick upslope event with the cold air dump at Day 7.

we ween

[moneypitmike]

That entire 18z GFS run is awesome.  Sick upslope event with the cold air dump at Day 7.

 

Yup--it's mighty kind to you.  We get to melt a bit before the cooler air arrives next weekend.

[powderfreak]

we ween

Yes we do and proud of it.

[Damage In Tolland]

One more mini torch to get thru now midweek after the storm and then maybe cold pattern takes over

[CoastalWx]

The 11-15 was AN on the op. Post Christmas rum and egg nog for some?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I don't see the giddyness over the 18z gfs in the long range.

[ORH_wxman]

The 11-15 was AN on the op. Post Christmas rum and egg nog for some?

Yeah d11-13 was mild on the op. Of course the ensembles are not that mild.

[Damage In Tolland]

I mean this coming week. Not Jan. First week of Jan looks cold

[ORH_wxman]

Anyways that is pattern talk. Should go in the other thread. This is all about the storm.

[powderfreak]

Yeah d11-13 was mild on the op. Of course the ensembles are not that mild.

 

But its better than anything we've seen so far.  That would be a serviceable above normal pattern IMO.  Not going for greatness though, just something wintery at times, haha. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I just want to beat 2006/2007 and 2011/2012

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Sweet, Greenfield is now listed as one of the forecast sites on the new experimental snowfall forecast table on the NWS BOX page.

http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Chance of Snow Accumulation

Experimental - Leave feedback

County:

Location Min Likely Max >=0.1" >=1" >=2" >=4" >=6" >=8" >=12" >=18"

Boston, MA 1 3 6 95% 74% 59% 28% 8% 1% 0% 0%

Edgartown, MA 0 0 2 48% 25% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Greenfield, MA 4 5 9 95% 95% 95% 74% 44% 20% 1% 0%

Hartford, CT 1 2 4 95% 95% 42% 13% 1% 0% 0% 0%

Hyannis, MA 0 <1 2 50% 30% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Nantucket, MA 0 0 1 47% 20% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Newport, RI 0 0 2 48% 31% 15% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Plympton, MA 1 2 5 95% 90% 47% 18% 4% 0% 0% 0%

Providence, RI 1 2 5 95% 95% 49% 21% 5% 0% 0% 0%

Springfield, MA 3 3 8 95% 95% 95% 63% 33% 13% 0% 0%

Taunton, MA 2 2 6 95% 95% 65% 31% 9% 1% 0% 0%

Westerly, RI 0 0 2 48% 27% 11% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Worcester, MA 3 4 7 95% 95% 95% 52% 24% 7% 0% 0%

[wxmanmitch]

Hey, what's the start time for Pittsfield on the euro folks? There's an 80% chance of me chasing. Plenty of rooms at the Hilton Garden Inn and Fairfield Inn. Thanks.

 

 

They do just fine in westerly flow events, better than MPM, just ask Mitch. They do get screwed different ways but it's not always from downslope.

 

 

Unless the models trend considerably colder in the next 24 hours, I'd avoid this area during a SWFE type situation. Easterly flow in the low levels causes downslope around Pittsfield (and anywhere in the US 7 corridor really). The downslope flow frequently causes a modest precipitation shadow as the air warms and descends on the west slope. It's usually not major, but we may get 4-5" while the eastern slope gets 7-8". Of course, midlevel forcing can override terrain effects. In addition, the warming will often extend to the midlevels since the terrain induced gravity wave propagates upward, causing us to flip to sleet quicker than equivalent latitudes to the east when the thermal profiles are marginal. 

 

If chasing, I'd recommend booking a room near Greenfield and going from there into S VT or NH as they should stay colder and avoid the problems we typically have in this type of setup.

 

Early call is 2-4" and then sleet for Pittsfield area. I'd go 4-7" for MPM's area before sleet. N ORH up toward Essex County MA does best with 5-8". Things don't look too good for the south of the Pike crowd this go around with maybe an inch or two to about BDL latitude.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

With 850mb temps dropping below -8C from MOnday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, any chance we get OES with the winds northerly?  GFS and NAM not so gung ho on that idea, maybe the inversion heights are too low.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

HIRES models picking up on OES event at hour 48, just out of their range, the 00z run tonight will be telling.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gfs pretty similar for CT. Maybe a tick cooler on the onset.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

GFS looks pretty much the same..... Maybe a tiny bit cooler.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The 11-15 was AN on the op. Post Christmas rum and egg nog for some?

Couldn't care less.

Borrowed time.

No rum here.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

00z GFS looks colder, thoughts on OES potential for Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning?

[ORH_wxman]

Maybe the slightest tick colder but pretty negligible. Goal posts are starting to narrow decently.

[BRSno]

2-4 sounds like a good call for now

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Will do you think OES is a good bet with the 850mb temps cooling to -8C or -10C by Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.  With northerly winds at the surface through 850mb.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Maybe the slightest tick colder but pretty negligible. Goal posts are starting to narrow decently.

Nice little event to start the season.

Been outta the loop tonight.

No changes?

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

GFS seems colder

[ORH_wxman]

Nice little event to start the season.

Been outta the loop tonight.

No changes?

Yeah still prob 4-7 N of pike in SNE. Wouldn't be shocked at an 8 spot up near NH border. Esp if we have one more tickle colder.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Nice.

Thanks.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Still a significant difference In thermal profiles and the resulting snowfall amounts prior to the changeover between the Euro/CMC and the GFS for the northern part of CT. The area north of the Pike looks good for a nice 3-6,4-8 type event obviously favoring latitude and elevation for the high end amounts. My question is whether the BDL, CEF corridor is a C-2 or more of a 2-4 snowfall event, possibly even 3-5 if enough dynamic cooling of the column to offset the warming aloft and we get a few hours of of mod/ heavy snow before the taint.

[78Blizzard]

00z RGEM @ hour 48 much colder at 850 and surface than 48 hour GFS.  Can't see 700 or 750.  High is 4 mb stronger @ 1045 mb vs 1041 on GFS.  Both positioned just se of James Bay.  But RGEM probably not in its wheelhouse yet.

[nzucker]

I still think this could easily trend colder. When's the last time we saw a 1004mb low slam into a 1044mb high? I definitely expect a lot of CAD at surface and quite possibly colder 850s ahead of the storm...that high has -30C @850mb in Labrador, -20C in Maine...we should be a bit colder than the -1/-2 that's been depicted.

0z GFS also looked a bit colder and further south. Confluence tries to force a redeveloper, and 100 miles south in that confluence could turn this into a NYC (or DXR) north storm rather than BOS north as currently modeled...