Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 problem is determining which model has them right. i find it hard to imagine the euro -u anomalies are nearly as intense or prolonged as it collapses the CCB southward really quickly.well I never have access to those so my experience has been GEFS, will go with what 12 z says and run with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I like the look for the Rt 2 corridor into adjacent S VT and S NHLaptop rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The Euro does have a 12+ hour period with nearly 50 knots 900 mb easterly flow over the eastern half of MA. I have to imagine those would be pretty large negative anomalies.well that's good, especially over this airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I like that band. It may sneak up on people thinking tomorrow isnt gonna amount to much. I don't like it in that it's going to force our hand on headlines a shift earlier than I would like. We'll have to make decisions on the watch today because it will be snowing at or shortly after the midnight package tonight. I like it in that I think people underneath it will do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ncep says Nam did not initialize well fwiwwhere? i see the 0z discussion NAM was missing a bunch of precipitation in the southeast, that was met discussion have not seen anything on ncep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 RGEM is just outside the bm....980 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 RGEM is just outside the bm....980 image.jpg that would be a near KU for phl-bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Whatever NCEP models were seeing in the strength of the lead impulse at 500mb..they aren't seeing at 12z. Both the NAM/GFS. Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Gfs generous in overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Gfs is very nice for east coastal areas. As the overrunning lessens it hands off to the coastal with almost no change in snowfall rates. This run is going to be a burial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There will be a band of S+ I think right at the coastal front. Probably starts out near and just NW of BOS and then slowly seeps SE later in the aftn and evening. Man, I went 8-12" here, but the RPM idea is very viable. I loathe these systems that favor the immediate coast with oes contributions because they just render me so prone to subsidence screwgies. RPM evolution would not at all surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think alot of people see 8+ out of this im starting to feel it man the RGEM would be sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Gfs is going to deliver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z GFS is backing down a bit but still a great hit for eastern areas decent for the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS should make alot of people happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I still like 5-9'' here. We're SOL if the WAA snow sets up a hair north or doesn't pan out as strongly as modeled so I'm not sold on an 8-12'' type deal yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Gfs rocking tom petty this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS looked meh at first, but strengthens the S/W nicely down south. A nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Man, I went 8-12" here, but the RPM idea is very viable. I loathe these systems that favor the immediate coast with oes contributions because they just render me so prone to subsidence screwgies. RPM evolution would not at all surprise me. You will pile up WAA stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Is it backing down or is it a hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Gfs 8-12 region wide. Probably missing some meso effects but a nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Is it backing down or is it a hit? Verbatim it backed down a tad..but it overall didn't change much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Gfs rocking tom petty this morning.Runnin Down a Dream or Free Falling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z GFS is backing down a bit but still a great hit for eastern areas decent for the rest of us. Just a hair but mostly looks the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I love your forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Really like seeing those WAA/mid-level fronto snows ramping up each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That backside energy digging more saves the thing...because the trough is clearly less sharp in the OV in the early stages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Gfs qpf: 0.75 all of ma and ri, eastern half of ct, southern 1/4 of nh and vt. 1.0 canal east 0.5 rest of ct, another half of vt/nh. Downeast me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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