CT Rain Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Really like seeing those WAA/mid-level fronto snows ramping up each run. I buy a 10-16" range or something in N MA and adjacent S VT and S NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Runnin Down a Dream or Free Falling? I won't back down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS looked meh at first, but strengthens the S/W nicely down south. A nice hit. Kicker behind has sped up a bit too. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 if u have a combo of increasing backside energy at 12z and the sharper trough and smaller half-length from 06z, you probably end up with the RGEM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I won't back down.think the GFS handled the dynamics pretty well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Gfs qpf: 0.75 all of ma and ri, eastern half of ct, southern 1/4 of nh and vt. 1.0 canal east 0.5 rest of ct, another half of vt/nh. Downeast me. One could argue the GFS was a good step in the right direction and that it's placing far too much emphasis on a 2"+ QPF blob off the coast. Hi Res NAM dumps on eastern areas very heavily which is a theme carried through all models so far this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 I just sent my friend this text when he asked how much: "A lot right here near the coast. I think by Friday noon we have a foot. 3-4 tomorrow and the rest tomorrow night early Friday morning. If this break just right someone could get 15-16 inches or if they break wrong maybe 8-9." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I really hope the GFS is right on that overrunning up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yeah Ryan...those totals just over the border may be just as high as some areas in ern MA. The euro argues a jackpot in SVT and SNH through ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yeah Ryan...those totals just over the border may be just as high as some areas in ern MA. The euro argues a jackpot in SVT and SNH through ME. Not just the Euro, NAM and GFS both have really good 850 mb frontogenesis just sitting overhead tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 this will be one of those few cases where e coastal areas will completely maximize the wind available in the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 MAN the temp gradient is epic. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 this will be one of those few cases where e coastal areas will completely maximize the wind available in the boundary layer.yeah Phil one of those cases you dream about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not just the Euro, NAM and GFS both have really good 850 mb frontogenesis just sitting overhead tonight. Yeah loop 850..it's pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 How does SNE south of the border do with WWA snows do folks think? Are those areas totally missed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Models are wavering on the location of the best mid level frontal forcing, but it's there on all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 How does SNE south of the border do with WWA snows do folks think? Are those areas totally missed? It starts out there and then lifts north. So there might be a lull later in the aftn. However, as the storm consolidates it should redevelop again from the south and west. It's a tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not just the Euro, NAM and GFS both have really good 850 mb frontogenesis just sitting overhead tonight.Like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 How does SNE south of the border do with WWA snows do folks think? Are those areas totally missed? If you believe the model evolution, it starts over SNE but moves north after midnight. Holds near the VT/NH/MA border through Thursday afternoon before collapsing towards the developing low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Like image.jpgimage.jpg Models really starting to peg a nice stripe across our southern CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z RGEM totals. Thru 48h with more to come. Approaching 1.20" in SE MA. Looks overdone to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It starts out there and then lifts north. So there might be a lull later in the aftn. However, as the storm consolidates it should redevelop again from the south and west. It's a tough call.So a few inches by morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 So a few inches by morning? I think my mid morning you have 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So there's been a good amount of talk on the upper level temps, but have we ruled out ratios above 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Like image.jpgimage.jpg Like that alot. Keep that where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Gfs qpf: 0.75 all of ma and ri, eastern half of ct, southern 1/4 of nh and vt. 1.0 canal east 0.5 rest of ct, another half of vt/nh. Downeast me. Add SE MA to the 1.00" totals as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Add SE MA to the 1.00" totals as well. 12z gfs 72h 1-1-14.gif Yeah I didn't expand my map so I guesstimated the canal. Pretty close...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 this will be one of those few cases where e coastal areas will completely maximize the wind available in the boundary layer. It looks amazing for OES enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So there's been a good amount of talk on the upper level temps, but have we ruled out ratios above 10:1? * TEMPS...NO ISSUES WITH P-TYPE AS THERMAL PROFILES WILL ALL BE BELOW 0C. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS 1000MB TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY. ONCE WHEN THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY EXPECT A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPS 15-20F BELOW AVERAGE. WIND CHILL ADV MAY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS WIND CHILLS WILL DROP BELOW -15F. FRIDAY DAY TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20F. LOOKING AT THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE PROFILE AND TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN -10C TO -15C. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY FINE SNOW AND INCREASE THE SNOW RATIO TO 15:1 TO PERHAPS 20:1 IN SOME LOCATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Add SE MA to the 1.00" totals as well. 12z gfs 72h 1-1-14.gif I'd be feeling this one if I was still at Stonehill. SEMA jack quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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