OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 not unimpressive at all It makes me happy that you pay attention to those 850 wind anomalies. A favorite of this weenie...I mean met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 0.75 CQX 0.50 BOS-UUU and a stripe from BGM-DDH The rest of CNE/SNE is <0.50 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If this were a normal one banger sure but it isn't and has never been modeled as.... The BZ is getting bumped initially pretty far offshore as a second low SLOWLY develops. Earlier non Euro models were overdone. Something got in there that was bad and they IMO were too strong aloft. Nice storm but it is what it is. Good ratios, not epic QPF unless you're in a favored area. what do you make of the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 RGEM is rather nice looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 H7 closes off overhead. Always a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro and NAM are pretty close to on e another in their depiction of the storm, no? Pretty much if 12z euro stays pat or gets worse and 18z nam is carbon copy of 12z this storm will most likely be meh outside oe areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 0.75 CQX 0.50 BOS-UUU and a stripe from BGM-DDH The rest of the CNE/SNE is <0.50 I'm starting to like that idea of two areas of higher QPF. The 00z Euro highlights those areas well too. Basically NH/MA border and eastern MA. Euro is really hammering the band of overrunning in southern NH starting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Boom on the Rgem. Seems like a good handle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It makes me happy that you pay attention to those 850 wind anomalies. A favorite of this weenie...I mean met.Lol, they have never failed me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Aside from everything else. Starting to think the WAA snows further north are going to help out those folks not really getting into the meat of the storm off the water. Bingo. What's probably being undersold at this point is the likelihood that the initial snowband that the models are progging to set up over NYS and extending eastward tonight. This band is likely to stall out in this region as mid-level frontogenesis ramps up. This will favor embedded stronger mesoscale snowbands that could train over the same locations for a 6-12 hour period. These might be strong enough to drop rates up to 1" per hour. The combination of good frontogenetical forcing plus a large dendritic snow growth region intersecting with this induced lift region could actually be more substantial than the more traditional precipitation associated with the surface cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Bingo. What's probably being undersold at this point is the likelihood that the initial snowband that the models are progging to set up over NYS and extending eastward tonight. This band is likely to stall out at mid-level frontogenesis ramps up. This will favors embedded stronger mesoscale snowbands that could train over the same locations for a 6-12 hour period. These maybe strong enough to drop rates up to 1" per hour. The combination of good frontogenetical forcing plus a large dendritic snow growth region intersecting with this induced lift region could actually more substantial than the more traditional precipitation associated with the surface cyclone. I agree. I mentioned to some met friends of mine that the WAA band is probably not getting the respect it deserves. I even mentioned the term "undersold" in an email..lol. It does look like the weenie snow algorithms are hitting it. In fact, the euro argues near a foot up in SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I agree. I mentioned to some met friends of mine that the WAA band is probably not getting the respect it deserves. I even mentioned the term "undersold" in an email..lol. It does look like the weenie snow algorithms are hitting it. In fact, the euro argues near a foot up in SNH. Harv? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Harv? And Dr Colby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ncep says Nam did not initialize well fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 how skilled is the rgem? i don't look at it much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I agree. I mentioned to some met friends of mine that the WAA band is probably not getting the respect it deserves. I even mentioned the term "undersold" in an email..lol. It does look like the weenie snow algorithms are hitting it. In fact, the euro argues near a foot up in SNH. Those isentropic charts I posted yesterday showed it really well too. That strongest isentropic lift is occurring in the heart of the snow growth zone for southern VT and NH right around the MA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 how skilled is the rgem? i don't look at it much I would trust it over the NAM. I don't have the best feel for it either, but purely anecdotal..... it does a decent job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Lol, they have never failed me problem is determining which model has them right. i find it hard to imagine the euro -u anomalies are nearly as intense or prolonged as it collapses the CCB southward really quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ncep says Nam did not initialize well fwiw kevin is in panic mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Those isentropic charts I posted yesterday showed it really well too. That strongest isentropic lift is occurring in the heart of the snow growth zone for southern VT and NH right around the MA border. It has that look of 20-25 DBZ fluff falling and piling up. Hopefully it serves for some seeder-feeder help with OES down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 how skilled is the rgem? i don't look at it much Its been by far the best model this season on winter storms if you ask me, but beyond 36 hours its not as good as it is inside of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It has that look of 20-25 DBZ fluff falling and piling up. Hopefully it serves for some seeder-feeder help with OES down here. I like the look for the Rt 2 corridor into adjacent S VT and S NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ncep says Nam did not initialize well fwiwwhere? i see the 0z discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 what do you make of the RGEM? I thought we weren't supposed to use it beyond 36.... I thought the RGEM and GGEM had done very well in earlier events down here when the Euro was WAY too dry and the GFS/NAM at times way too wet. I asked yesterday why it was being smacked around. Regardless it did slow the progression of the trailing system vs the 48h 0z run. Interesting and if close to right that's a massive hit in eastern areas. GFS will decide it, I put more stock in the entire group of solutions than any individual member. IE, if the GFS leans weaker towards the NAM/Euro I wouldn't discount the RGEM but wouldn't budge from the 4-8 6-12 type of idea here. Verbatim if the RGEM came to fruition that's a lot more than even 6-12 around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 kevin is in panic mode.Actually I'm very confident. I'm really feeling this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Fwiw, the rpm looks to hit favored areas in southeast ma hard, around a foot. It really screws extreme western Rhode Island and Connecticut verbatim, probably a 2-4 inch snowfall there if that verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It has that look of 20-25 DBZ fluff falling and piling up. Hopefully it serves for some seeder-feeder help with OES down here. I like that band. It may sneak up on people thinking tomorrow isnt gonna amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 So...,nam backed off and RGEM ramped up. My thinking is gfs stays the course as it's less prone to the wild swings depicted on the nam which tends to pick up little mesoscale things and magnify them. It was too juiced at 6z and probaby a hair too little now.t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 problem is determining which model has them right. i find it hard to imagine the euro -u anomalies are nearly as intense or prolonged as it collapses the CCB southward really quickly. The Euro does have a 12+ hour period with nearly 50 knots 900 mb easterly flow over the eastern half of MA. I have to imagine those would be pretty large negative anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This would be a massive hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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