Logan11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It looked good at various parameters, including its fictional simulated radar, but then you get to qpf and it's rather paltry outside of far east/southeast NE. But for me here...I'm pushing 7 inches already so it's not so vital. New NAM looks even better. Nice, one of the very few times where all guidance improves as the event arrives and is underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It looked good at various parameters, including its fictional simulated radar, but then you get to qpf and it's rather paltry outside of far east/southeast NE. But for me here...I'm pushing 7 inches already so it's not so vital. It's high ratio stuff. Radar is unimpressive away from the water but the atmosphere has been able to produce anyway. It will be really interesting tonight when it "does" have high QPF to see how much snow is really falling in those heavy bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 if you read his discussion..it's based on the higher than normal snow ratios..if ratios were 10:1 it would be 8-12 with modeled qpf..so with higher ratios he's going for higher totals. It makes sense..but that doesn't mean that every single place is going to get that amount as you know Any idea where he gets that ratio-adjusted qpf map? Very Cool. Never seen it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yea... SREF plumes from 15Z still puking out 12-20" in BOS on top of what is already on the ground ... lol. Overdone for sure, but even toning it down to 8-12" more is damn impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Last call..for alcohol..drink it up LAST CALL --- GAME TIME January 2, 2014 at 12:38pmSTAR DATE 201401.02 I have 0.3" in westbrook. A glorified dusting. When's my 11.7-15.7" coming? Tonight? Oooook DT. You got me beat! Didn't even bother to measure because it doesn't even look like 0.1". Should see steadier stuff moving back in in the next 2-3 hours. I'm sticking with my conservative 4-8" call for most of the state...8-10" in the hills. Seems there's always bigger bust potential on the high end when forecasting ratios. Although I admit...some of the amounts from the WAA are impressive and that's encouraging...but doesn't necessarily mean those ratios will translate to the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Now that is a coastal front: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/obs/BOSobs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Updated snow map from BOX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 We are under this beautiful 25 dbz band now across the CD of New York. Normally that would be moderate snow, but given the ratios it seems heavy. Visibility is about a half mile tops right now and it is 1 degree. You got me beat! Didn't even bother to measure because it doesn't even look like 0.1". Should see steadier stuff moving back in in the next 2-3 hours. I'm sticking with my conservative 4-8" call for most of the state...8-10" in the hills. Seems there's always bigger bust potential on the high end when forecasting ratios. Although I admit...some of the amounts from the WAA are impressive and that's encouraging...but doesn't necessarily mean those ratios will translate to the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 We are under this beautiful 25 dbz band now across the CD of New York. Normally that would be moderate snow, but given the ratios it seems heavy. Visibility is about a half mile tops right now and it is 1 degree. smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Updated snow map from BOX: Think they're overshooting here still. I figure a storm total of 7-9 here...an additional 5-7 from now. By the time the front sags back through and we get into the good banding the entire thing will be on the move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Okay, just got of a conference call with NWS Tan office.... They left Suffolk Co out of the blizzard warning because they don't really feel the people who live there deserve a blizzard. They've checked their list twice and have determined who's been naughty and nice as posters, and there's just too many non-deserving people who happen (much to their chagrin) to really be wanting the drama of a severe winter storm. It's just unfortunate for those in the minority nicers that have to take the punishment of personalized warning types... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Okay, just got of a conference call with NWS Tan office.... They left Suffolk Co out of the blizzard warning because they don't really feel the people who live there deserve a blizzard. They've checked their list twice and have determined who's been naughty and nice as posters, and there's just too many non-deserving people who happen (much to their chagrin) to really be wanting the drama of a severe winter storm. It's just unfortunate for those in the minority nicers that have to take the punishment of personalized warning types... :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 HRRR through 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The cape has seen very little snow in a matter of terms. May be time for a trim job or is this in track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Brunswick Maine Storm Total: 8.3", Liquid 0.45", Avg Ratio of 18:1 It appears all ASOS stations in Coastal Maine, Coastal NH and Coastal Mass that were under Blizzard Warnings did not meet the criteria of the warnings. Some stations like Hyannis were at Blizzard conditions periodically but were not for the 3hr minimum. Sandwich Mass CoOp station had 3hrs of 35+ mph winds but the station doesn't report precip or visibility therefore an incomplete. Personal opinion is that station probably experienced actual blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.