HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not really the direction you want to see this go at this timeframe Bit of a flag but region wide still gets a nice event. Will, Scott, Ryan etc have been cautioning for two days about this being moderate not major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It usually catches on once the event is underway like Phil and Scooter always sayThe NAM was great when it gave you a foot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yeah NAM caving in a big way. SREFs will follow suit later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It usually catches on once the event is underway like Phil and Scooter always say i would rather use other models by then.. so pretty much worthless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You better hope the EC doesn't hold serve today.Not worried since the ens were juicier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The NAM was great when it gave you a foot though.No it wasn't. We all still get around a foot regardless of the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 anything over 6" for me is a win. watches up snow tomorrow with some bowl games to watch, start a fire and enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAm went from a 6z 979 slp to 12z 989.. come on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not worried since the ens were juicierThey were a little juicier for E MA...not the interior. 0.25-0.50" range for you and most of the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 They were a little juicier for E MA...not the interior. 0.25-0.50" range for you and most of the interior.Time will tell. I know where my money is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think the NAM is actually a realistic solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Who cares what the models show when they come in with less than a foot? I mean it doesn't change anyone's thinking no matter what they have FYP...ride the 10-20" call into the sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Kind of weird, the lead s/w is just a bit weaker and can't buckle the flow to curl in low pressure, but the backside energy was a bit better looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Eh thinking about it 4-8 or even 6-12 is safe here no change from yesterday. The wild card continues to be the oes which could add a lot. Srefs are utterly useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 FYP...ride the 10-20" call into the sunset.Yourre right, the nam is awesome. 2-4 should do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Time will tell. I know where my money is I hope you put it on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think the NAM is actually a realistic solution.Looks like a slightly juicier version of the EC QPF distribution now with the E MA jackpot and a secondary max around ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sref's are complete and utter crap and a waste. Nam/euro combo points to This being less impressive... However not set in stone yet Wondering how much coastal enhancement there may be. At least over-running looks solid, coastal looks putrid on euro, im still thinking oe gets imm. East areas. Hopefully euro is more robust and this is burp nam run. Could be..we wait. Ginxy how many Stan dev is that 850 inflow on gfs?backing down or amping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'll still take the .5" the NAM gives me and run. High advisory/low warning due to duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Honestly, the SREFs may be too robust, but I still wipe my azz with the NAM until it starts snowing. The model sucks, right or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 all the NAM-Queens are out in full force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Honestly, the SREFs may be too robust, but I still wipe my azz with the NAM until it starts snowing. The model sucks, right or wrong.Post of the year and it's day 1. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is going to be one of those storms where we wake up to bare ground in the open spaces - and tall drifts against buildings and fences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sref's are complete and utter crap and a waste. Nam/euro combo points to This being less impressive... However not set in stone yet Wondering how much coastal enhancement there may be. At least over-running looks solid, coastal looks putrid on euro, im still thinking oe gets imm. East areas. Hopefully euro is more robust and this is burp nam run. Could be..we wait. Ginxy how many Stan dev is that 850 inflow on gfs?backing down or amping up. -3.5 to -4 SD u wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Post of the year and it's day 1. Thank you I mean we are 6 hrs closer to an event where data is sampled so you have to consider it, but the model is a joke. FWIW the SREFs can be as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 the RPM is pretty much the definition of haves/have nots. substantial along extreme E MA coast and a secondary axis of good snow across NYS...elsewhere pretty ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I mean we are 6 hrs closer to an event where data is sampled so you have to consider it, but the model is a joke. FWIW the SREFs can be as well.Agree on srefs. Don't like them at all.most mets don't it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'll still take the .5" the NAM gives me and run. High advisory/low warning due to duration. Bonus of the overrunning is we get to watch some decent snow during daylight hours out here while the coast rocks more at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Agree on srefs. Don't like them at all.most mets don't it seems. I keep forgetting that you are a met now. No worries on the dryslot/sucker hole feature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 lol...BUF has 6-8" totals for BUF and 10-14" for ROC but only a winter weather advisory. I kind of agree though...very long duration light maybe occasionally moderate snow...so we won't receive 7" in 12 hours or 9" in 24 h. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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