dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 ECMWF or NCEP about to get a major smack downI think the EC ramps up more today and the NAM comes back to reality a bit. It may not be this run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Dats a lot of liquid...... f78.gif Dats a lot of liquid...... f78.gif That's also quite a range between members. Some are very juicy in the far interior. Some not so much..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 . Ginxy will geek out with driftsanticipate tons of pics grainy cell pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 ECMWF or NCEP about to get a major smack downI think the EC ramps up more today and the NAM comes back to reality a bit. It may not be this run though. Yeah that's my thinking as well. EC ens were wetter than the op - though still well shy of the NAM and even GFS. euro is just weaker all around. Low to mid-level features that really help smoke E SNE on the GFS/NAM are hardly present on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 09z SREFs robust for E areas for 1"+. .5" for all other areas up into CNE 0.25" up to canadian border. too low on these numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 ECMWF or NCEP about to get a major smack down Tbh i see widespread .5 with .8 or so within 10 miles of n shore and s.shore , plus pym county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 ECMWF or NCEP about to get a major smack down Phil how bad was the euro down here? Not even much oe? My bet is we do see the normal compromise but much more heavily weighted to ncep this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not to be funny but w arctic air in place the storm looks to be traversing the "you know what" James.yep yep had that vision first thing after midnight when outside at the fire pit and the wind started roaring overhead, Walt Drag Arctic passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 too low on these numbersThink he was using NCEP based on time of his post. This will be >24hrs of snow for some spots so the NCEP 24hr totals won't catch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Think he was using NCEP basedon time ofhis post. This will be >24hrs of snow for some spots so the NCEP 24hr totals won't catch it.yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 yep yep had that vision first thing after midnight when outside at the fire pit and the wind started roaring overhead, Walt Drag Arctic passage It came through here five hours earlier--really impressive gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Somebody give us a SREf plume map, they must be insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Somebody give us a SREf plume map, they must be insane Already been posted a few back. Some are pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 ECMWF or NCEP about to get a major smack down Phil how bad was the euro down here? Not even much oe? My bet is we do see the normal compromise but much more heavily weighted to ncep this time. Qpf wise it was pretty meager everywhere. Maybe .6 or so on the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 New nam is backing off I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 New nam is backing off I think.Yup...not really surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 New nam is backing off I think. Manages .25+ in the overrunning for Mass and the southern tier of VT/NH. Not a bad start in case the coastal is meager for the interior folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yup...not really surprised. Way weaker at 5h. Major move to compromise. 4-8/5-10 seems plausible here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Somebody give us a SREf plume map, they must be insane BOS SREF mean 24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Congrats Scooter down to me. SREF 12"+probs 65-70% See what the NAM shows now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This run might end up euro-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Lol NAM looks horrible so far.. Much weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 BOS SREF mean 24" sref-09-bos-epic.png With pronounced clustering between 10-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Srefs are useless. Nam misses with the first coastal wave now which will drop totals significantly in coastal areas and is weaker with the main body. It looks like a major fold.Who cares what the Nam shows? I mean it doesn't change anyone's thinking no matter what it has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Who cares what the Nam shows? I mean it doesn't change anyone's thinking no matter what it has i mean the NAM has to be good at some point lol.. not sure when that is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not really the direction you want to see this go at this timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Matt your post vanished but the nam already missed with wave 1 which cut totals down. The secondary has less moisture to work with. Nice event but forget the srefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 i mean the NAM has to be good at some point lol.. not sure when that is!It usually catches on once the event is underway like Phil and Scooter always say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 995 low is closer to the coast on this run , so maybe a net positive.. need to see next few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Who cares what the Nam shows? I mean it doesn't change anyone's thinking no matter what it hasYou better hope the EC doesn't hold serve today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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