Hurricane Isaias

[jconsor]

Impressive microwave pass confirming the last recon message which showed a closed eyewall.

https://x.com/yconsor/status/2108197204842446876

[WEATHER53]

Can you tell me what were other times that a hurricane formed in that general area after start of October?

Thanks 

[Boston Bulldog]

4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Can you tell me what were other times that a hurricane formed in that general area after start of October?

Thanks 

Many examples. Milton most recently 

[GaWx]

Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092026
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
 
...ISAIAS STRONGER...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION 
TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 90.2W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES

————————

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Isaias is strengthening in an environment of moderate vertical wind 
shear. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that the central pressure continues to fall and the 
maximum winds are now near 75 kt. The center of the hurricane is 
near the southwestern side of a Central Dense Overcast feature, and 
some convective banding features are evident over the eastern 
portion of the circulation. Additional aircraft reconnaissance 
missions are scheduled for today, tonight, and Friday, so we will 
have close monitoring of the intensity of the system up until 
landfall.

Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that Isais 
continues on a generally east-northward track with an initial 
motion of about 060/9 kt. During the next 36 hours, the hurricane 
should gradually turn toward the northeast and north as it moves 
between a ridge extending from the Bahamas across the Florida 
Peninsula and a zonally-oriented mid-level trough near the 
northwestern Gulf coast. On the forecast track, the center of the 
hurricane is forecast to move across the east-central to 
northeastern Gulf coast in 36-42 hours. Thereafter, the weakening 
cyclone should move over the southeastern United States bringing 
strong winds well inland. The track guidance has not changed much 
for this advisory cycle and the official forecast is similar to that 
of the previous advisory.

The intensity forecast up to landfall is somewhat challenging. 
On the one hand, the hurricane should move over waters of high 
oceanic heat content and within a fairly moist air mass through 
tomorrow. On the other hand, the SHIPS model input parameters show 
a significant increase in vertical wind shear, particularly when 
Isais nears the coast. Regarding, the shorter-term intensity 
forecast, a recent WSFM microwave satellite image at 37 GHz 
frequency shows a closed ring around the eye. This is typically a 
harbinger of rapid intensification. The 12-hour forecast does show 
a relatively large increase in strength, but in view of the 
expected stronger shear in 24-36 hours, some decrease in intensity 
is indicated as Isaias approaches the coast. Regardless, Isaias is 
expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall, and 
gusty winds are expected well inland after landfall given the 
anticipated expansion of the wind field and accelerating forward 
speed of the storm.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 23.7N  90.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 24.9N  89.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 27.1N  87.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 29.6N  87.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 32.3N  87.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 60H  11/0000Z 34.6N  88.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  11/1200Z 36.5N  87.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Can you tell me what were other times that a hurricane formed in that general area after start of October?

Thanks 

Plenty. You can find them here:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

[beanskip]

Another pass with extrapolated 974 mb. Whatever strengthening that is happening isn't happening super quickly. 

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Another pass with extrapolated 974 mb. Whatever strengthening that is happening isn't happening super quickly. 

Seems to be strengthening around the solar minima fighting back shear with convection then levels out as soon as convection starts to die down during the daytime. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, jconsor said:

Impressive microwave pass confirming the last recon message which showed a closed eyewall.

https://x.com/yconsor/status/2108197204842446876

Very impressive structure especially given the shear. If it maintains the current blow up of storms during the convective minimum that could allow significant intensification 

[GaWx]

Tropical Storm watches well inland in AL/GA:

 

This is for way up in C AL including Birmingham and Tuscaloosa:

**TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA** 

* STORM INFORMATION:   - ABOUT 710 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM AL OR ABOUT 640   MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY AL   - 23.7N 90.2W   - STORM INTENSITY 85 MPH   - MOVEMENT EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH    

SITUATION OVERVIEW   ------------------     HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF   COAST, MAKING LANDFALL FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 40   TO 50 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, RESULTING IN THE   POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. RAINFALL   AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES   WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN   AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY   DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ALONG AND EAST OF THE   TRACK ON SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL ALONG AND EAST OF   INTERSTATE 65. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS TIME.

[WEATHER53]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Plenty. You can find them here:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

But this is the latest forming first hurricane of season ever?

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

But this is the latest forming first hurricane of season ever?

Yeah although 1905 was about as late:

[cardinalland]

8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

But this is the latest forming first hurricane of season ever?

1905 was a day later (10/7 at 11:30pm vs 10/8)

 

In the satellite era, yes, by far (previous record was 9/11)

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

1905 was a day later (10/7 at 11:30pm vs 10/8)

 

In the satellite era, yes, by far (previous record was 9/11)

I thought we tied the record of 10/8 from 1851.

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Very impressive structure especially given the shear. If it maintains the current blow up of storms during the convective minimum that could allow significant intensification 

Should be a good flex tonight before it gets pummeled early tomorrow.

[olafminesaw]

Loving this approach, feel like the NHC should adopt something like this

[GaWx]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought we tied the record of 10/8 from 1851.

No, it’s the latest 1st H since 1851, inclusive. That’s the first year of these tracks at the NHC site.

[cardinalland]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought we tied the record of 10/8 from 1851.

The hurricane was declared as such at 11:30pm eastern on 10/7 after a Hurricane Hunters pass. So it’s a little dicey.

 

Of course there’s a good chance 1905 had a hurricane earlier in their season that we didn’t detect

[olafminesaw]

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

The hurricane was declared as such at 11:30pm eastern on 10/7 after a Hurricane Hunters pass. So it’s a little dicey.

 

Of course there’s a good chance 1905 had a hurricane earlier in their season that we didn’t detect

Technically according to this image, it was a H by 0Z on 10/8 in 1905 or 7PM EST on 10/7. So, that means 2026 was a little later if you go by this:

[ROOSTA]

SHEAR... FTL.  Combined with ML dews are a death knell.

Wouldn't be surprised if LF is as TS.

Tracking this was way to brief.

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

SHEAR... FTL.  Combined with ML dews are a death knell.

Wouldn't be surprised if LF is as TS.

Tracking this was way to brief.

It’s probably a decent Cat 1 at landfall but it’ll look like a ragged mess. 

[WEATHER53]

49 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Loving this approach, feel like the NHC should adopt something like this

After it gets to Sunday 7am position does it turn more eastward?

[beanskip]

When is this strengthening storm going to, you know, strengthen? Pressure has been stuck on 976 mb per recon for a couple hours. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, beanskip said:

When is this strengthening storm going to, you know, strengthen? Pressure has been stuck on 976 mb per recon for a couple hours. 

It’s battling dry air and shear and this will get worse as it approaches. Maybe tonight this tries to take off again which is likely its last chance. 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

It’s battling dry air and shear and this will get worse as it approaches. Maybe tonight this tries to take off again which is likely its last chance. 

It's clearing out on visible 

[cardinalland]

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Technically according to this image, it was a H by 0Z on 10/8 in 1905 or 7PM EST on 10/7. So, that means 2026 was a little later if you go by this:

I stand corrected. Thank you

[NavarreDon]

In the middle of both personal & business preparations, so haven’t posted much. I can say the vast majority of the public is taking the storm seriously. Should be able to post more tonight & then start OBS tomorrow when necessary.


.

[beanskip]

Even though precise track may not be as important on Isaias as other more powerful storms, fwiw pretty much every 12z model trended east from prior runs. Heck, the 12z HMON is almost to Panama City Beach. 

12z HAFS-B gains a whopping 32 mb of pressure in last 15 hours before landfall.

[MANDA]

Best looking system by far this season and close to home.  

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop60v.html

Don't think this makes major status and thinking Cat 1 at landfall but spreading out as it landfalls.  Jet interactions may make this just as bad or worse inland than at the coast.  Winds will extend quite a distance inland with massive power outages.  Ground is saturated along the gulf coast to boot.  Lots of trees will come down.  Tornado threat east of the track is going to be a problem as well.

Surge will be the biggest issue at the coast I think. 

Also think NHC will continue to nudge track east a bit in future advisories.  Places near landfall and to the right will get the worst of the winds and surge.  West side could have not much going on with a lopsided system.