It's coming 1/31-2/1

[Snowlover11]

Toss the euro convective feedback.

[ILoveWinter]

13 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Toss the euro convective feedback.

It’s been a while, hope to see such gems over the next few days lol 

[Tatamy]

06z EPS is east of previous runs 

[mikem81]

Really bad trends overnight. Need to see some improvement in next 24 hours or this is over 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Hey Good morning, still far away and these have been trending north lately so we have that on our side. GEFS look great but who can really trust them. Euro AI is so close

[MJO812]

I want some of this snow to melt. Its a friggin mess to park. 

Alot of friends who are teachers are complaining this morning. The snow is concrete right now.

[NEG NAO]

you can tell the GFS OP is out to lunch because the GEFS has no huge snowfall amounts south of us like the OP does - treat the OP like one of the ensemble members.

[NEG NAO]

22 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Really bad trends overnight. Need to see some improvement in next 24 hours or this is over 

I would give it 72 hours at least - like the last storm no one is expectiing a HECS - a 2-4 or 3-6 is more reasonable IMO

[MJO812]

[wishcast_hater]

Spring starts at the end of March and we could use an early Spring after a winter like this. Bitter cold has been relentless.

Meanwhile 2 weeks ago some on this board decided to cancel winter.


.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

to refresh our memory what are some of his credentials and how did he perform with this past  weekends storm ?

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

to refresh our memory what are some of his credentials and how did he perform with this past  weekends storm ?

Hes a meteorologist in SNE.  He didnt do that well with the last storm.

Hes right about the pattern though. It's very favorable.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Do you think it’s going to be pure fluff after 6 days of melting in the sun and then refreezing? I have like 18” on my roof. Another 2 feet on top of that wouldn’t be great. And it’s too high for one of those scrapers.

I'd be more worried about ice damming than structural issues, unless your house is framed with balsa wood.

Based on the temperature forecast and the amount of snow on my roof, I am worried about ice damming.

[MJO812]

The media is starting to mention about this upcoming possible weekend storm. Here we go.

[CentralNJSnowman]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I would give it 72 hours at least - like the last storm no one is expectiing a HECS - a 2-4 or 3-6 is more reasonable IMO

TONS of people have been talking about this as a potential HECS.  Doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, but 2-4/3-6 is actually pretty unlikely with this one.  If it hits, it’s probably a big one, unless you’re in the relatively small ‘just missed’ area.  

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The media is starting to mention about this upcoming possible weekend storm. Here we go.

I don't even listen to them (all noise) - - only well known reputable METS - IMO have to keep all options open this far out

[WeatherGeek2025]

we're about 100 hours until

this storm actually gets even close to us all we need is 100 miles west jog and we get a SECS!

[NorthShoreWx]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you can tell the GFS OP is out to lunch because the GEFS has no huge snowfall amounts south of us like the OP does - treat the OP like one of the ensemble members.

That's a lot of QPF for an ensemble mean 5 days out.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

TONS of people have been talking about this as a potential HECS.  Doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, but 2-4/3-6 is actually pretty unlikely with this one.  If it hits, it’s probably a big one, unless you’re in the relatively small ‘just missed’ area.  

The EPS from last night showed a few inches - what evidence do you have that it will be all or nothing ?

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

That's a lot of QPF for an ensemble mean 5 days out.

thats snowfall not liquid

[the_other_guy]

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I want some of this snow to melt. Its a friggin mess to park. 

Alot of friends who are teachers are complaining this morning. The snow is concrete right now.

Teachers always complain. meanwhile, the rest of us show up to work on time with a smile on her we get fired. 

Go figure.

 

that said the city is in for a rough go in terms of melting because there’s no warm air and if another major snowstorm hits, it’s gonna hurt on those tight streets.

 

Throwing the snow in the street and watching it melt with traffic and 35 degrees isnt going to work this go around.

back in the 90s, they would close the school yard and let the teachers park there during a major snow situation… but with the political optics in the city these days, I don’t see that happening

[Snowlover11]

I’d like to start seeing a western shift if we are going to get somewhere with this.

[NorthShoreWx]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

thats snowfall not liquid

It's implied.  Personally, I find the actual QPF maps more helpful at this timeframe.

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The media is starting to mention about this upcoming possible weekend storm. Here we go.

Everyone I know is already talking about it, the media hype is nuts. 

It would be historical to get another big storm this quickly so not sure what will happen.  

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Teachers always complain. meanwhile, the rest of us show up to work on time with a smile on her we get fired. 

Go figure.

 

that said the city is in for a rough go in terms of melting because there’s no warm air and if another major snowstorm hits, it’s gonna hurt on those tight streets.

 

Throwing the snow in the street and watching it melt with traffic and 35 degrees isnt going to work this go around.

back in the 90s, they would close the school yard and let the teachers park there during a major snow situation… but with the political optics in the city these days, I don’t see that happening

They need dump trucks to clean the big piles from the streets. Like you said , we are use to warmups after big storms but we might not hit freezing for another week at least.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

I’d like to start seeing a western shift if we are going to get somewhere with this.

models are in windshield mode now - IMO won't be for 2 or 3 days till we get solution we can mostly believe but not totally

[NorthShoreWx]

4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Teachers always complain. meanwhile, the rest of us show up to work on time with a smile on her we get fired. 

Go figure.

 

that said the city is in for a rough go in terms of melting because there’s no warm air and if another major snowstorm hits, it’s gonna hurt on those tight streets.

 

Throwing the snow in the street and watching it melt with traffic and 35 degrees isnt going to work this go around.

back in the 90s, they would close the school yard and let the teachers park there during a major snow situation… but with the political optics in the city these days, I don’t see that happening

Do they still dump it in the river?

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It's implied.  Personally, I find the actual QPF maps more helpful at this timeframe.

post one

[NorthShoreWx]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

post one

No thanks.  There's enough of you doing that already.

My point was, that's far from a clear swing and a miss signal.

[Nibor]

Theres 2 camps on the 6z EPS. One is in a good spot for our subforum track near the benchmark. The other is way out to sea. I’m encouraged by the GEFS but I want to see the EPS make a significant shift west with its mean today.