WxUSAF Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 ^so that suggests either nothing (most common solution), but a healthy minority of near warning level hits? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: ^so that suggests either nothing (most common solution), but a healthy minority of near warning level hits? I think that makes sense. We have a loaded up storm that will bring precip so its just a matter of if there is enough cold to take advantage (assuming the track isn't terrible). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, Paleocene said: Which results in some major differences lol. Euro 12z precip Euro AI 12z precip (it's faster so slightly earlier panel) And this is what’s wrong with models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDSnow93 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 21 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: re: the above - pretty boom or bust Thanks! I'll be interested to see how this chart evolves over the next few days. Hopefully we can get more members on board and get that 60th percentile down to 40th. Or maybe even 75th down to 25th if our WDI wants to cash in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: We have a loaded up storm that will bring precip so its just a matter of if there is enough cold to take advantage That's the $150,000 question. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 PARA Canadian (in theory the better version) is a HECS 4 4 2 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 28 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: And this is what’s wrong with models. Meh. For 48 hour QPF at D7+ I would expect some pretty major dispersion. If it looked like this inside D5, I would agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 PARA Canadian (in theory the better version) is a HECSI’m more worried that we get goosed like euro ai is showing. Did ensembles agree with the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: PARA Canadian (in theory the better version) is a HECS It's definitely amazing, an HECS is quite the stretch though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: It's definitely amazing, an HECS is quite the stretch though. Yeah, that’s not a HECS. Maybe if it was March, it would be a HECS for that month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 9 minutes ago, Ji said: I’m more worried that we get goosed like euro ai is showing. Did ensembles agree with the op? Probably not fair to compare the CMC Ens to the Para CMC since they are running different systems - but not really, lol. Para CMC and the current CMC are close-ish to each other, though. Reform the low off the Carolina coast vs. over our heads/NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, ravensrule said: It's definitely amazing, an HECS is quite the stretch though. 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Yeah, that’s not a HECS. Maybe if it was March, it would be a HECS for that month. HECS, MECS, whatever. 13" on my dome is high impact to me 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 New Euro weeklies don’t look great 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: HECS, MECS, whatever. 13" on my dome is high impact to me I more a fan of Tex MECS. Just sayin…cause I have literally nothing to add. Never really have. Never really will. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: I more a fan of Tex MECS. Just sayin…cause I have literally nothing to add. Never really have. Never really will. You're the best, never change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 18z icon looks like it'll take the ol' northerly route up to michigan if it went past 120 hours. love that <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 After looking at the 12z euro…I guess having a southeasterly wind at the surface before a southern stream system arrives isn’t ideal, right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 This will be an interesting case study for euro vs ai euro in medium range. They’re pretty wildly far apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 26 minutes ago, rjvanals said: New Euro weeklies don’t look great They're not that bad. 1 week AN temps, next week. Several weeks around normal temps to slightly BN and normal or close to AN precip. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 One thought to all this hulabaloo. The pattern is changing after 2 months of colder than normal. Pattern change creates model kaos. Before the 18 z runs, I will be BOLD. The 2 month colder than normal pattern is ending................. March will probably be variable temperature wise and a hodge podge of rain/snow events.................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, stormy said: One thought to all this hulabaloo. The pattern is changing after 2 months of colder than normal. Pattern change creates model kaos. Before the 18 z runs, I will be BOLD. The 2 month colder than normal pattern is ending................. March will probably be variable temperature wise and a hodge podge of rain/snow events.................................... So March is going to March....Like it does every year....since the dawn of time.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: PARA Canadian (in theory the better version) is a HECS If i had to choose i'm going with this one....thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: They're not that bad. 1 week AN temps, next week. Several weeks around normal temps to slightly BN and normal or close to AN precip. In an active pattern, all we need is one quick Arctic shot thru mid March. I’m more interested in precip at this point. This region really needs it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 18 minutes ago, stormy said: One thought to all this hulabaloo. The pattern is changing after 2 months of colder than normal. Pattern change creates model kaos. Before the 18 z runs, I will be BOLD. The 2 month colder than normal pattern is ending................. March will probably be variable temperature wise and a hodge podge of rain/snow events.................................... How much wind tho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 15 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: If i had to choose i'm going with this one....thanks Yes I believe that is also my preferred solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, BristowWx said: Yes I believe that is also my preferred solution. Me too….get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: PARA Canadian (in theory the better version) is a HECS Nah, that’s a MECS. A HECS would be 18” or more region wide. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 GfsAI a little further south than 12z . Temps ever so slightly cooler because it's a touch south. Probably not snow south of MD/PA line and dubious imby verbatim as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 New post in the *technical* thread for those interested in the pattern progression/storm chances going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 37 minutes ago, mitchnick said: They're not that bad. 1 week AN temps, next week. Several weeks around normal temps to slightly BN and normal or close to AN precip. we got to score this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts