February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[WxUSAF]

^so that suggests either nothing (most common solution), but a healthy minority of near warning level hits?

[SnowenOutThere]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

^so that suggests either nothing (most common solution), but a healthy minority of near warning level hits?

I think that makes sense. We have a loaded up storm that will bring precip so its just a matter of if there is enough cold to take advantage (assuming the track isn't terrible).

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Paleocene said:

Which results in some major differences lol. Euro 12z precip

Euro AI 12z precip (it's faster so slightly earlier panel)

 

And this is what’s wrong with models.  

[MDSnow93]

21 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

re: the above - pretty boom or bust

Thanks! I'll be interested to see how this chart evolves over the next few days. Hopefully we can get more members on board and get that 60th percentile down to 40th. Or maybe even 75th down to 25th if our WDI wants to cash in

[Cobalt]

16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

We have a loaded up storm that will bring precip so its just a matter of if there is enough cold to take advantage

That's the $150,000 question.

[NorthArlington101]

PARA Canadian (in theory the better version) is a HECS

[Paleocene]

28 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

And this is what’s wrong with models.  

Meh. For 48 hour QPF at D7+ I would expect some pretty major dispersion.  If it looked like this inside D5, I would agree with you.

[Ji]

PARA Canadian (in theory the better version) is a HECS

I’m more worried that we get goosed like euro ai is showing. Did ensembles agree with the op?

[ravensrule]

17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

PARA Canadian (in theory the better version) is a HECS

It's definitely amazing, an HECS is quite the stretch though. 

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

It's definitely amazing, an HECS is quite the stretch though. 

Yeah, that’s not a HECS. Maybe if it was March, it would be a HECS for that month.

[NorthArlington101]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

I’m more worried that we get goosed like euro ai is showing. Did ensembles agree with the op?

Probably not fair to compare the CMC Ens to the Para CMC since they are running different systems - but not really, lol.

Para CMC and the current CMC are close-ish to each other, though. Reform the low off the Carolina coast vs. over our heads/NJ

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

It's definitely amazing, an HECS is quite the stretch though. 

 

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah, that’s not a HECS. Maybe if it was March, it would be a HECS for that month.

HECS, MECS, whatever. 13" on my dome is high impact to me 

[rjvanals]

New Euro weeklies don’t look great 

[Scraff]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

HECS, MECS, whatever. 13" on my dome is high impact to me 

I more a fan of Tex MECS. Just sayin…cause I have literally nothing to add. Never really have. Never really will. 

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I more a fan of Tex MECS. Just sayin…cause I have literally nothing to add. Never really have. Never really will. 

You're the best, never change. 

[Paleocene]

18z icon looks like it'll take the ol' northerly route up to michigan if it went past 120 hours. love that <3

[87storms]

After looking at the 12z euro…I guess having a southeasterly wind at the surface before a southern stream system arrives isn’t ideal, right?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

This will be an interesting case study for euro vs ai euro in medium range.   They’re pretty wildly far apart. 

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

New Euro weeklies don’t look great 

They're not that bad. 1 week AN temps, next week. Several weeks around normal temps to slightly BN and normal or close to AN precip.

[stormy]

One thought to all this hulabaloo.

The pattern is changing after 2 months of colder than normal.

Pattern change creates model kaos.

Before the 18 z runs, I will be BOLD.

The 2 month colder than normal pattern is ending.................     March will probably be variable temperature wise and a hodge podge of rain/snow events.................................... 

[GATECH]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

One thought to all this hulabaloo.

The pattern is changing after 2 months of colder than normal.

Pattern change creates model kaos.

Before the 18 z runs, I will be BOLD.

The 2 month colder than normal pattern is ending.................     March will probably be variable temperature wise and a hodge podge of rain/snow events.................................... 

So March is going to March....Like it does every year....since the dawn of time....

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

PARA Canadian (in theory the better version) is a HECS

If i had to choose i'm going with this one....thanks

[87storms]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

They're not that bad. 1 week AN temps, next week. Several weeks around normal temps to slightly BN and normal or close to AN precip.

In an active pattern, all we need is one quick Arctic shot thru mid March. I’m more interested in precip at this point. This region really needs it.

[IronTy]

18 minutes ago, stormy said:

One thought to all this hulabaloo.

The pattern is changing after 2 months of colder than normal.

Pattern change creates model kaos.

Before the 18 z runs, I will be BOLD.

The 2 month colder than normal pattern is ending.................     March will probably be variable temperature wise and a hodge podge of rain/snow events.................................... 

How much wind tho?   

[BristowWx]

15 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

If i had to choose i'm going with this one....thanks

Yes I believe that is also my preferred solution.  

[Solution Man]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Yes I believe that is also my preferred solution.  

Me too….get it

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

PARA Canadian (in theory the better version) is a HECS

Nah, that’s a MECS. A HECS would be 18” or more region wide.

[mitchnick]

GfsAI a little further south than 12z . Temps ever so slightly cooler because it's a touch south. Probably not snow south of MD/PA line and dubious imby verbatim as well.

[CAPE]

New post in the *technical* thread for those interested in the pattern progression/storm chances going forward.

[Ji]

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

They're not that bad. 1 week AN temps, next week. Several weeks around normal temps to slightly BN and normal or close to AN precip.

we got to score this week