Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

True-but will be interesting to see if the other models follow suit-GFS will be interesting

Yes if Euro AI follows suit than it'll be very concerning if you want snow! GFS flip flops the best model now is euro ai in my opinion!

[Jersey_Snowhole]

5 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

ICON with the warm push





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By tomorrow it will be all rain

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

been a trend all day-continue northward ticks...

i don't know how, after all this time, folks can confidently talk about a foot plus of snow when we have seen multiple cases of things changing radically even the day before. this was entirely predictable. it might still be wrong. it's only wednesday ffs.

[Wxbear25]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

All the models have it down there. The key is it ejecting Saturday morning.

It’s interesting that one piece of this storm will bring rain to Southern CA on Friday.

Relative to its 12z run, it was noticeably southwest

The biggest change was how it handled the energy in Canada.

The whole orientation of the trough north of the border changed between the 12 and 18z run

 

ultimately, it’s that piece, more so than the southern stream itself, which will dictate how far north this comes

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, jdj5211 said:

Crappy when it’s not a great run. Good when it is a great run! As is the rule with all models.


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no i look at icon for one specific reason 2m temps... that's the only thing that it could be useful. it is the worst model of all

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Still 6+ almost entire subforum

does that really mean anything either....this is days away; best we can say is there is some weather ahead. that's all. be prepared either way. it does not hurt to be prepared. 

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

no i look at icon for one specific reason 2m temps... that's the only thing that it could be useful. it is the worst model of all

so what model would you consider the best, knowing of course that none of them are perfect...there was a met the other day that said this would not come north...lol

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

i don't know how, after all this time, folks can confidently talk about a foot plus of snow when we have seen multiple cases of things changing radically even the day before. this was entirely predictable. it might still be wrong. it's only wednesday ffs.

thats why I posted this little gem of a link - Snow and ice storm, March 4-6, 2001 - Storm Summary mass hysteria - all milk and bread sold out for next to nothing in accumulation

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

so what model would you consider the best, knowing of course that none of them are perfect...there was a met the other day that said this would not come north...lol

euro AI is the best model of all! follow that and it'll lead you to the real solution in my opinion

[winterwx21]

We saw how much mixing the CMC showed on the 12z run and Euro brought in mixing early Sunday afternoon, so this ICON run isn't something new. We're trending in that direction. Hopefully our major snowstorm won't fall apart. We will get a front end dump due to the arctic air in place, but it wouldn't be a shock if it's just a mediocre 2 to 4 or 3 to 5 dump before mixing like we've seen many times in the past. Of course the big amounts are very possible too -- a long way to go with this. 

[the_other_guy]

guys just to walk you off the cliff here, the high on Sunday somewhere between 19 and 23°.

 

This is not your NYC run of the mill snowstorm where this is going to rain or you’re not gonna get accumulation.

 

I think some of you are losing sight of that with this sleet potential.

Whatever falls is going to stick and it’s gonna stick hard

 

 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

guys just to walk you off the cliff here, the high on Sunday somewhere between 19 and 23°.

 

This is not your NYC run of the mill snowstorm where this is going to rain or you’re not gonna get accumulation.

 

I think some of you are losing sight of that with this sleet potential.

Whatever falls is going to stick and it’s gonna stick hard

 

 

True with the ground so cold also we don't want to get any freezing rain - that could be a nightmare - the folks down south are hoping they don't experience that - no fun living without electric in this weather

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

euro AI is the best model of all! follow that and it'll lead you to the real solution in my opinion

thanks

[cleetussnow]

13 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

By tomorrow it will be all rain

look at how close the taint is to Anthony's nose.  

[North and West]

Happens all the time. Everyone acts like where they are is where everyone is. No concept the forum runs a general 75 mile radius north south east and west of Central Park. 

Obviously the only place we should care about is the North and West homestead.


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[NJwx85]

This doesn’t look accurate to me. I think it’s a crappy output from a crappy model. You have 2m temps in the teens in VA and Eastern PA where it’s showing rain.

[Winterweatherlover]

12 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

By tomorrow it will be all rain

For that to happen the primary would have to go into the great lakes and the secondary hug the coast or not develop at all and precip somehow doesn't arrive until late in the day on Sunday since it will be like 10 degrees Sunday morning.

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

This doesn’t look accurate to me. I think it’s a crappy output from a crappy model.

is it counting sleet as rain because otherwise it makes no sense with the surface temps.

[the_other_guy]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

For that to happen the primary would have to go into the great lakes and the secondary hug the coast or not develop at all and precip somehow doesn't arrive until late in the day on Sunday since it will be like 10 degrees Sunday morning.

correct the only way this storm truly busts is if it suppresses south. If not, something dramatically would have to change.

[weatherpruf]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

We saw how much mixing the CMC showed on the 12z run and Euro brought in mixing early Sunday afternoon, so this ICON run isn't something new. We're trending in that direction. Hopefully our major snowstorm won't fall apart. We will get a front end dump due to the arctic air in place, but it wouldn't be a shock if it's just a mediocre 2 to 4 or 3 to 5 dump before mixing like we've seen many times in the past. Of course the big amounts are very possible too -- a long way to go with this. 

we are getting spoiled already...had some piddly events, everyone was mostly ok with it after last year, and now feeling let down that there might just be a nasty storm that could be a few inches of snow and sleet, when in other winters we'd kill for that. i'm no fan of sleet, but on top of snow with some cold, it can look wintry for awhile. we are too far from game time to know.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This doesn’t look accurate to me. I think it’s a crappy output from a crappy model.

wheres the mixing colors ? just snow and rain ?

[TJW014]

Just sayin': you don't want to be in the bullseye 4-5 days out. Never ends well. 

[TJW014]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

wheres the mixing colors ? just snow and rain ?

Icon doesn't show sleet or ice on Tidbits

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

Obviously the only place we should care about is the North and West homestead.


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Sometimes I wonder why I venture out of  our homeland. 

[mriceyman]

This doesn’t look accurate to me. I think it’s a crappy output from a crappy model. You have 2m temps in the teens in VA and Eastern PA where it’s showing rain.

Good call


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[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS rolling....

please hold serve 

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Just sayin': you don't want to be in the bullseye 4-5 days out. Never ends well. 

Go back here:
 

 

NYC was in the bullseye a week out. Wound up being a record producing snowstorm for NYC.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Icon doesn't show sleet or ice on Tidbits

Mr. Cowan should work on changing that

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

wheres the mixing colors ? just snow and rain ?

Pivotal weather shows freezing rain but I have a hard time believing it with a 1035mb low over Quebec and a weak surface low off the VA Capes. Primary low dies over West Virginia.

[Winterweatherlover]

6 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Just sayin': you don't want to be in the bullseye 4-5 days out. Never ends well. 

Except in the this case the bullseye is from Northern Virginia to I90 so theres a lot of wiggle room.