Franklin0529 Posted Wednesday at 04:58 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:58 PM I have a hard time buying the CMC progression with that cold dome overhead. Ukie smashes us with a foot Plus all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted Wednesday at 04:59 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:59 PM Just now, Tatamy said: There’s actually a burst of snow at the end. We dont usually do well with tail end/wrap around snows. Its usually a dump followed by lighter precip mix and shutting off. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted Wednesday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:04 PM 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: The Canadian is NOT a good model and I wouldn’t be concerned with it at all unless it started moving back towards a more suppressed look. It’s over amplifying the trough and not handeling the airmass to the North well. Canadian skill scores are notably higher than the GFS. I’d keep the Canadian option on the table for the moment. Let’s see what the UKIE AND EURO have to add shortly. GFS skill scores are at the bottom of the pack. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astoriaweather Posted Wednesday at 05:05 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:05 PM 27 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Big storms like this tend to shove the artic high away, not saying this is the case but it does throw up a red flag. We have seen it in the past. I wasn't living in NY then but in DC. But wasn't there a storm in January 2014 that many models suggested would be primarily snow but then at the end it transitioned into a major sleet storm for East Coast cities? Not saying it's likely in this set up, but I recall it was somewhat similar situation where you had a Low driving up into Western Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted Wednesday at 05:05 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:05 PM I love how we went from worrying about suppression to mixing in 24 hours. Cant it ever be easy?Question though, why is it the way it is? I thought the high pressure was too strong and too cold, and now it’s just like, “whoopsies, my bad, let me skidattle for you.”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted Wednesday at 05:05 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:05 PM Not to derail the thread but anyone see the long term GFS? Holy shit! 1 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted Wednesday at 05:09 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:09 PM Not to derail the thread but anyone see the long term GFS? Holy shit!:weenie:Hot weenie action?. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted Wednesday at 05:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:10 PM Just now, North and West said: Hot weenie action? . For this storm and the one showing up a week later. 1 3 3 3 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Wednesday at 05:17 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:17 PM 17 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: We dont usually do well with tail end/wrap around snows. Its usually a dump followed by lighter precip mix and shutting off. that's CCB sometimes it works very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Wednesday at 05:18 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:18 PM 8 minutes ago, North and West said: Hot weenie action? . made me laugh......i mean really...the connotations here.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted Wednesday at 05:20 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:20 PM 8 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: For this storm and the one showing up a week later. That’s nuts. I don’t want five feet of snow in my neighborhood. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted Wednesday at 05:22 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:22 PM 8 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: For this storm and the one showing up a week later. Almost 5 feet in Sparta. Nice. Imagine if it verified, or even half of it. I mean, we are due for a correction on the overall low precipitation amounts in the past year, year and a half. What a time it would be if the deluge came in the form of winter snow. Probably not, but fun to ponder. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted Wednesday at 05:26 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:26 PM For this storm and the one showing up a week later.. 2 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted Wednesday at 05:27 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:27 PM 25 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: We dont usually do well with tail end/wrap around snows. Its usually a dump followed by lighter precip mix and shutting off. Normaly backend snow is in a myth in this area but in this type of scenario I can see it ending as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted Wednesday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:32 PM Euro delayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted Wednesday at 05:33 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:33 PM 25 minutes ago, MANDA said: Canadian skill scores are notably higher than the GFS. I’d keep the Canadian option on the table for the moment. Let’s what the UKIE AND EURO have to add shortly. GFS skill scores are at the bottom of the pack. Basic physics tells you that you can’t run the upper level low into a 1038-1040mb high. If we didn’t have blocking it would be a completely different story. Heavy snow to a dry slot followed by the potential coastal on Monday is much more likely at this point than significant mixing issues. However, even 96 had some sleet up this way. Can’t rule it out but any guidance holding on to that primary North of say Pittsburg is likely wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Wednesday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:34 PM Are there a lot of suppressed solutions on the GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Wednesday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:36 PM 31 minutes ago, North and West said: Question though, why is it the way it is? I thought the high pressure was too strong and too cold, and now it’s just like, “whoopsies, my bad, let me skidattle for you.” . Notice how the bottom of the trough has moved west over the past couple of runs? That allows the primary to ride west of us. The High to the north eventually stops it but it brings warm air aloft to the east causing mixing. Prior to this the primary slid to our south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Wednesday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:36 PM only 14 more model cycles suites to go. At this range the very close avg of all QPF has NYC spot on 1 inch which is quite a feat for such an aligned 96-120H forecast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted Wednesday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:40 PM Euro got nuked. Lol We will be delayed but not denied! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Wednesday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:41 PM 28 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS is not amped.... Borrowed from MA forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Wednesday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:44 PM 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Borrowed from MA forum Good to have a mix of amped plus less amped solutions across models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Wednesday at 05:45 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:45 PM 4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Euro got nuked. Lol We will be delayed but not denied! It's running now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted Wednesday at 05:46 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 05:46 PM I keep refreshing Pivotal Weather like it’s a lever connected directly to the Euro’s supercomputer. Strangely, the model remains unimpressed by my enthusiasm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted Wednesday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:48 PM TWC now has NYC on the northern edge of their 12-18 band FWIW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted Wednesday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:49 PM Euro AI holds serve 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Wednesday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:50 PM 1 minute ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: Euro AI holds serve Looks amazing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted Wednesday at 05:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:53 PM 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Looks amazing Anyone able to post QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DreamBig Posted Wednesday at 05:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:53 PM Has the hurricane hunter data been added to the initializations yet? If not does anyone know when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Wednesday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:54 PM Yup Euro AI been rock steady. Usually when it locks in on something inside 5 days it's been deadly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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