January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Us lowlanders have seen this movie before lol. Not the trend I was hoping to see today. 

Yes, rather disappointed, but it fits climo. Still hope we get a few inches in

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Us lowlanders have seen this movie before lol. Not the trend I was hoping to see today. 

This isn’t much different than the last 2 runs 

[WxMan1]

3 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Us lowlanders have seen this movie before lol. Not the trend I was hoping to see today. 

I mean, I try to think of events that gave us 11-12+ inches of snow followed by the crust. I can't think of any, lol. Seems to be we tend to get 6-8" in those situations, maybe 9-10" at most. Meh, still significant no matter how you look at it. Plus, the crust should inhibit the melting. 

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I'm still gonna hang my weenie hat on the 12z AIFS. Doesn't mix at all for DC/points just SE and has been the steadiest model. Might as well go down with the all-snow ship

Yeah. it keeps the upper levels below zero for the duration DC and NW. Regardless, you are going to get hammered with the front end thump even if it does flip. Really nice storm for you too. 

[Nomz]

Might be cope, might not. I'd bet on the AIFS if I was forced to. Has been stupidly consistent since like Monday.

[umdterps29]

Just now, WxMan1 said:

I mean, I try to think of events that gave us 11-12+ inches of snow followed by the crust. Seems to be we tend to get 6-10" in those situations, at most. Meh, still significant no matter how you look at it. Plus, the crust should inhibit the melting. 

The cold surface temps will inhibit the melting, we don't need ice for that. The sleet and ZR will compact everything. We can't act like it won't be a kick in the gut to see locations 30 miles to our NW get 18 inches of snow while we get 6 and ice

[frd]

3 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Us lowlanders have seen this movie before lol. Not the trend I was hoping to see today. 

Frustrating that despite an extremely cold air mass, CAD and peak climo the Eastern areas will have mixing issues, even far away from the coast.  At best just a SECS here, all the main snow action well West, unless the outcome is more 12z AIFS based. 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. it keeps the upper levels below zero for the duration DC and NW. Regardless, you are going to get hammered with the front end thump even if it does flip. Really nice storm for you too. 

I'm relying on your experience out here but that Euro and AI run is pretty thrilling if that is my first snowstorm out this way...you're welcome by the way

[stormtracker]

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Thank you. Seems like 6" - 10" from the bay to I-95, 8" - 12" west of there.

Damn, they moved i-95 through Upper Marlboro and told no one.  What kind of sorcery is this?

[AlexD1990]

Just now, frd said:

Frustrating that despite an extremely cold air mass, CAD and peak climo the Eastern areas will have mixing issues, even far away from the coast.  At best just a SECS here, all the main snow action well West, unless the outcome is more 12z AIFS based. 

The consolation is we seem to be entering into an active pattern, with more chances ahead, maybe its the reverse of 2010 and the 2nd or 3rd storm is the bigger one for us 

[psuhoffman]

I don’t think the ec P type output is correct. The freezing rain along 95 should be sleet 

This is toward the end of the thump period and the biggest risk of losing qpf to non snow. 
 

surface is plenty cold and so is 925. The warm layer is somewhere around 850 and slightly above. That depth would indicate sleet imo along 95 not freezing rain. During the dry slot it looks like freezing drizzle. 
 

Surface

925

850

700

[EstorilM]

Sterling NWS

[WxUSAF]

Only have plots every 6 hours on Pivotal, but at 18z Sunday (102hrs), all the layers (700, 850, and 925) are at or below freezing for DC-Annapolis and points N/W. 850 is warmest. Goes above freezing at 700 after that time, but only another 0.25” of precip or so. So unless there’s a sneakier warm layer between 700-925mb, that’s a solid 1.1-1.3” of precip before any mixing.

[StormyClearweather]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I'm still gonna hang my weenie hat on the 12z AIFS. Doesn't mix at all for DC/points just SE and has been the steadiest model. Might as well go down with the all-snow ship

My ignorance here, but when I look at the AIFS on TT, the 540 line jumps north of most of us. Does that not matter? Soundings on Piv also seem to show sleet/snow mix for many of us, FWIW.

Not to be a Debbie Downer - just hoping I'm wrong and missing something. 

[87storms]

Looks like Frederick has an opportunity to make up ground from the last few years. Curious where in MoCo will be the dividing line. Seems like Gaithersburg to Columbia is often times the battleground for these fall line setups.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, umdterps29 said:

The cold surface temps will inhibit the melting, we don't need ice for that. The sleet and ZR will compact everything. We can't act like it won't be a kick in the gut to see locations 30 miles to our NW get 18 inches of snow while we get 6 and ice

Hey--the past 7 or 8 years it’s been the opposite. Those of us North and NW of you has been getting skunked with fringe jobs while the southern half of the forum cashes in! It balances out after awhile--and this outcome feels more typical with climo!

[stormtracker]

9 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Us lowlanders have seen this movie before lol. Not the trend I was hoping to see today. 

Huh?  This is basically a hold.

[mappy]

Not sure if anyone mentioned but total qpf on euro did go down compared to 06z, back to 00z amounts. Dc lost .4

[brooklynwx99]

it's still uncomfy for you guys, but i still think most of the damage is done before any mixing... nobody should be complaining about 8" of snow in like 4 hours followed by some mix. if the mix does end up occurring at all

[Interstate]

Even if we do get sleet or freezing rain... It is not like it is going anywhere.  It will just compact the snow some.

[TJ3]

6 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

I mean, I try to think of events that gave us 11-12+ inches of snow followed by the crust. I can't think of any, lol. Seems to be we tend to get 6-8" in those situations, maybe 9-10" at most. Meh, still significant no matter how you look at it. Plus, the crust should inhibit the melting. 

What did PD II give us snow wise before the crust?

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said:

My ignorance here, but when I look at the AIFS on TT, the 540 line jumps north of most of us. Does that not matter? Soundings on Piv also seem to show sleet/snow mix for many of us, FWIW.

Not to be a Debbie Downer - just hoping I'm wrong and missing something. 

The 540 line isn't gospel. There is a site for the AIFS that does p-type that I should've bookmarked, but it keeps us snow as that site views it verbatim. If I can find it again I'll mark it.

[Cobalt]

Sure, why not

[WVsnowlover]

9 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Us lowlanders have seen this movie before lol. Not the trend I was hoping to see today. 

Sorry but you guys have had your share over the past few years. The far NW crew is beyond overdue. It will still be an epic storm for the entire board.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's still uncomfy for you guys, but i still think most of the damage is done before any mixing... nobody should be complaining about 8" of snow in like 4 hours followed by some mix. if the mix does end up occurring at all

6-18z Sunday is a beatdown 

[Jebman]

15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

That's pretty much it

South Va and N NC is a total catastrophe with close to 2 inches of ice accretion in low 20s ambient conditions.

[weathercoins]

A quarter inch of ZR, a little sleet, and 10+ inches of snow, followed by absolute frigid temperatures for a week would be an absolute mess.  Schools would not open until Thursday at earliest.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

6-18z Sunday is a beatdown 

exactly, the WAA is insane and i find it hard to believe you guys do without sig snowfall. it's just so cold going in and the 700mb FGEN will be off the charts

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t think the ec P type output is correct. The freezing rain along 95 should be sleet 

This is toward the end of the thump period and the biggest risk of losing qpf to non snow. 
 

surface is plenty cold and so is 925. The warm layer is somewhere around 850 and slightly above. That depth would indicate sleet imo along 95 not freezing rain. During the dry slot it looks like freezing drizzle. 
 

Surface

925

850

700

Looks like mixing will be close to DCA and probably minimal?

[WEATHER53]

26 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Looks like 10-12” from 1am to 1pm Sunday