January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

 

Gotta love this...

I'm not watching the models roll in other than here so I assume Randy is correct? But I won't jump to conclusions. 

they’re both right. Randy was comparing panel to panel, bncho the run and the feed overall. I get the 1 person on pbp but don’t give the unnecessary hate when he’s also not wrong sheesh. You guys have nothing better to do but blast a teenager (not saying you Kenny). 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

GFS looks better than 6z... more precip... comes in hot and heavy

 

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So far a lil drier than 6z.  Just waiting to see what that next panels show

LOL 

Let Randy cook 

[Solution Man]

24 hours of snow with a lot more to go @ 108

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

GFS is just a monster long duration run without mixing into DC, please lord let it be right.

[Eskimo Joe]

Per the 12z GFS, temps in the low to mid 20s for nearly everyone during the storm. Incredible.

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Sleet line a hair north, but you'd like to just call it a wobble. Still a money panel

Regular hair or ass hair? We need specifics at a time like this.

[Ralph Wiggum]

The seasoned vet Randy majestically dribbling the ball down the court ready to perform a poster dunk doing his pbp and gets the ball ripped from his hands by a bench rookie on the same team nonetheless  

[LP08]

This will be the high mark run that I will base all of the future model runs on.  Start High and adjust higher!  

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Finally getting into the heavies at 96

That’s the start of the critical window. If it holds for the next 12 hours then we’re in business.

[TSSN+]

Absolutely crushed! 

[T. August]

Kuchera is 18” for DC

[caviman2201]

GFS going ballistic

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

LOL 

Let Randy cook 

All i had in when I made that post was this panel when I made this post.   For our area and overall, am i crazy?  I didn't say it was terrible.  When I do pbp I was just stating what it shows.  I don't characterize until I'm SURE

[NorthArlington101]

Orientation of the CCB is very different this run, can't quite figure out why. To defend @bncho a bit the only drier panels are really 108/111, but think that's delayed, not denied

and I guess 102 re: above, but doesn't show as clearly on WxBell

[LeesburgWx]

This is a MF beatdown. Near Perfect run. In GFS We Trust

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

All i had in was this panel when I made this post.   For our area and overall, am i crazy? 

Def was drier panel to panel, but then the run itself went postal for us all  don’t think anyone’s complaining!

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Per the 12z GFS, temps in the low to mid 20s for nearly everyone during the storm. Incredible.

This has been really consistent across modeling. I'm amazed and it's terribly exciting, lol.

[H2O]

At this point I don't give a shit about surface.  We all know its gonna be cold enough at 2m.  Lets focus on the 700-850s

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

All i had in was this panel when I made this post.   For our area and overall, am i crazy? 

Crazy?  Yes, but not for the reason you think.

[blizzardmeiser]

6 minutes ago, konksw said:

Stormtracker should be doing the PBP to help avoid these mixed messages.  He is a Hall of Famer. 

[87storms]

Just now, LP08 said:

This will be the high mark run that I will base all of the future model runs on.  Start High and adjust higher!  

I know…I don’t even feel like watching the rest of the runs lol. We basically have a bowling ball Pacific low colliding with an Arctic dome. That was one of the best gfs runs I have ever seen for this area irt the shear size of this system.

[NorthArlington101]

Duration really increased. All that missing QPF is on the backside

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Orientation of the CCB is very different this run, can't quite figure out why. To defend @bncho a bit the only drier panels are really 108/111, but think that's delayed, not denied

Dude, i was comparing run to run panel to panel.  I'm not into future casting when I'm not sure.   Like come on

[Solution Man]

SEE YOU ON SUNDAY 

[TSSN+]

Beautiful run right there 

 

[TowsonWeather]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Look at that fetch wow 

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

they’re both right. Randy was comparing panel to panel, bncho the run and the feed overall. I get the 1 person on pbp but don’t give the unnecessary hate when he’s also not wrong sheesh. You guys have nothing better to do but blast a teenager (not saying you Kenny). 

You’re right thanks. Just wish people would let Randy do the pbp. We can go into details like drier or whatnot once it’s done. 

[Bob Chill]

I'll gladly take the gfs version. Big change for folks SW is a flip back to snow on the backside. Being more strung out really helps. Thump, sleet, dryslot, sleet, snow... yea, I like this version.

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

Stop making posts I agree with haha makes me like you more than I really do

stole this from our own board. 

[Eskimo Joe]

To my eye a key difference is the 12z GFS pops the coastal low quicker and slightly further south. That stops any intrusion of mid level warming and maintains precipitation as all snow. It's a wonderful run for just about everyone. Even the folks in far southern Maryland and the tidewater of VA that mix get a solid event, then appear to flip back to several hours of accumulating snow.