January 16th: Rolling the dice

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

The euro showed a nice hit for multiple runs too. They all struggle. 

But it was never anything like the gfs though.

[Scraff]

Tracking rain showers. Back to LR. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But it was never anything like the gfs though.

So? It still showed the ull passing well south now it’s up in New York. 

[SnowenOutThere]

18 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

So? It still showed the ull passing well south now it’s up in New York. 

It was a delicate balance tbf, the only reason we got such a great dig is because the best vorticity was centered on the southern part of the lobe so it pinched south. Without that there's nothing that really helps it do that. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Hmmm maybe we should delete this thread and gaslight anyone who wasn’t awake into believing it never existed 

[AlexD1990]

Told you the storm would hear you.

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[caviman2201]

Really thought we had a shot at this one for some stupid reason... 

[snowmagnet]

I’ve read that the MJO is in 6, so this being a snowstorm is not likely, right?

But the next 2 are more favorable. 
 

Tired teacher here. I want all of them. 

[Duca892]

Whoof knew overnight runs were awful when both the NE and MA forums were absolutely dead

[Ruin]

46 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Whoof knew overnight runs were awful when both the NE and MA forums were absolutely dead

why I dont trust models not even 1-2 days out they change way to much for the same model from 1 run to the next 

[RevWarReenactor]

They keep saying the models are so much better now than they were 30 years ago.

 

Are you sure?

[wxdude64]

6 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Hmmm maybe we should delete this thread and gaslight anyone who wasn’t awake into believing it never existed 

Maybe that restart thing will work...... this time? 

[IronTy]

Lmao did this storm thread even survive one model run?

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Lmao did this storm thread even survive one model run?

Tried to tell them to wait until today.  And I’m not talking about the bullshit superstition thing, I meant because the models were janky with every single run.    
 

It’s fine, it could come back!

[87storms]

24 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Lmao did this storm thread even survive one model run?

Latest gfs now has a closed low over PA. Before it was looking like it would be south of our lat, though even in those runs it was a late phaser lol. Maybe we can get some snow showers from this as the colder air moves in.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

 

9 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Hmmm maybe we should delete this thread and gaslight anyone who wasn’t awake into believing it never existed 

The old philosophical conundrum:  If a thread is started in the middle of the night and nobody is aware of it, did it exist?? 

[mappy]

lol storm cancel

[Ralph Wiggum]

You rolled the dice and got snake eyes apparently. 

[RevWarReenactor]

We haven't even had a single model graphic posted in this thread. Its that bad. 

[H2O]

I should unpin it to let the weather gods know it was a mistake and they will take pity on us and give us snow.  Once i do that it will be in ma natures hands and hers are as good as AJ Browns were yesterday.  

[WxUSAF]

GFS has some digital blue!

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS has some digital blue!

All it took was the thread to be unpinned...

[SnowenOutThere]

20 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

All it took was the thread to be unpinned...

Gotta keep it that way 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS has some digital blue!

Digital grey?

[rjvanals]

The model performance on this was laughably bad. Take a look at todays 12z Euro vs yesterday at 12z. Totally different world 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, rjvanals said:

The model performance on this was laughably bad. Take a look at todays 12z Euro vs yesterday at 12z. Totally different world 

It’s their design 

[CAPE]

lol didn't even realize there was a thread for this. I'll put this here-

Half the 12z GEFS members have some snow for central/eastern areas on Thursday. Too bad the EPS and GEPS have little to nothing lol.

[CAPE]

The GFS is becoming a bit of a joke lol. We are well within range for a deterministic model, but look at its last 4 runs. HH has the snow(such that it is) in SE VA/NE NC now. One of its last 4 runs will probably be correct, given the disparity.