January 16-19th: Rolling the dice

[T. August]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Correct, tomorrow favors us in the NW, Sunday favors your folks bay and east. 

Then there’s between the 2… 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, T. August said:

Then there’s between the 2… 

You're in on it for Sunday on the AI guidance. Hopefully the op runs keep ticking NW/expanding the precip field the next few cycles.

[T. August]

Just now, CAPE said:

You're in on it for Sunday on the AI guidance. Hopefully the op runs keep ticking NW/expanding the the precip field the next few cycles.

Appreciate it, honestly I haven’t been looking too hard - just doing a little light complaining lol. I would def be happy with a half inch.

[Ellinwood]

First crack at Sunday... went pretty aggressive with a strong lean on the Euro+GFS AI guidance given how crazy consistent they've been with the track+QPF, with much less consistency among the traditional models. Southern and eastern areas dealing with some surface temp issues while western edge could change drastically if the system ends up weaker/more progressive than my forecast. Lower than normal confidence with this map.

[AlexD1990]

11 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

First crack at Sunday... went pretty aggressive with a strong lean on the Euro+GFS AI guidance given how crazy consistent they've been with the track+QPF, with much less consistency among the traditional models. Southern and eastern areas dealing with some surface temp issues while western edge could change drastically if the system ends up weaker/more progressive than my forecast. Lower than normal confidence with this map.

blued!!!!! yesssssss

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

First crack at Sunday... went pretty aggressive with a strong lean on the Euro+GFS AI guidance given how crazy consistent they've been with the track+QPF, with much less consistency among the traditional models. Southern and eastern areas dealing with some surface temp issues while western edge could change drastically if the system ends up weaker/more progressive than my forecast. Lower than normal confidence with this map.

Your blue line cut my Baltimore street in half 

[TSSN+]

Nam def made a significant jump west. Not good enough yet but almost there 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[WxUSAF]

Slight westward adjustment in the NAM 

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Slight westward adjustment in the NAM 

Oh boy...models might be coughing up a furball on this one, lol

[psuhoffman]

Nothing sadder than the Ellinwood gray  

[Warm Nose]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Nothing sadder than the Ellinwood gray  

except the tragedy of Zippo white

[ravensrule]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nothing sadder than the Ellinwood gray  

1-2” would make me ecstatic. 

[SnowenOutThere]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nothing sadder than the Ellinwood gray  

I’m out in ellinwood white land so I would disagree 

[WxUSAF]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nothing sadder than the Ellinwood gray  

First time I’ve ever been excited to be in that zone 

[mitchnick]

Flurries imby fwiw

[Eskimo Joe]

Alright kids, 00z is where we put all our chips in

 

 

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Flurries imby fwiw

BEST STORM THREAD EVER 

[mitchnick]

AiGfs looks juicy. I think it's mostly snow away from the beach?

[Terpeast]

Based on precip shields, I think gfs and aigfs are converging closer to each other. Whether it’s correct or not, idk. We’ll get better clues at 00z when new upper air data is ingested. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Based on precip shields, I think gfs and aigfs are converging closer to each other. Whether it’s correct or not, idk. We’ll get better clues at 00z when new upper air data is ingested. 

The recon data coming in, i still remember the bad data “claim” 48 hours out from Boxing Day, then 0z was just as west, and watches came out by 3am lol

[CAPE]

18z GFS a bit of a step back, depending on location. A little worse for me, but still close to 2 inches, but better for S DE, damn near 4". I might consider a trip to Rehoboth since I'm off for MLK day.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Nothing sadder than the Ellinwood gray  

Ha!  Well, in this case since I'm not really expecting much of anything for the Sunday event, "Ellinwood Gray" is actually looking pretty good...relatively speaking!!!

 

[WEATHER53]

Intense area of precip on KY/TN border so watching that for direction movement and expansion 

[bncho]

pretty lazy forecast on my part but here's what i put out for my school's discord

trust ellinwood over me