January 16-19th: Rolling the dice

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Both AI models (euro and gfs) are wester than everything right now.  A good test to see how those perform.

 

 

Euro AI is west of 6z even.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Both AI models (euro and gfs) are wester than everything right now.  A good test to see how those perform.

 

 

Euro AI is west and wetter than 6z lol. Not backing down

[LP08]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro AI is west and wetter than 6z lol. Not backing down

Do you know their resolution compared to the OPs?  Everything looks “smoother” and since this is such a delicate balance of wave interactions, I do wonder if that’s why they are west comparatively.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro AI is west and wetter than 6z lol. Not backing down

Op actually did too lol. Woof this is some messed up modeling. We need that airplane data tonight. 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Do you know their resolution compared to the OPs?  Everything looks “smoother” and since this is such a delicate balance of wave interactions, I do wonder if that’s why they are west comparatively.

Yes it’s much lower resolution. 0.25 degrees vs 0.08 for the Op euro

[WEATHER53]

I like what I see on the current surface maps as this presentation works for DC in the past 

[bncho]

Euro AI shows 1-2" for Jan 18

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

I like what I see on the current surface maps as this presentation works for DC in the past 

 

[clueless]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Euro AI shows 1-2" for Jan 18

I actually gotta work and can’t look.  1-2 for who? 

[bncho]

Just now, clueless said:

I actually gotta work and can’t look.  1-2 for who? 

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Op actually did too lol. Woof this is some messed up modeling. We need that airplane data tonight. 

So what you are saying is- both the 12z CMC op and EURO op are now more like the GFS op, with some snow for I-95 and east. Seems like a favorable trend.

eta- I should say- the 12z EURO has joined the 12z CMC and now both are more like the GFS

[CAPE]

The next few model cycles might be interesting.

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

So what you are saying is- both the 12z CMC op and EURO op are now more like the GFS op, with some snow for I-95 and east. Seems like a favorable trend.

eta- I should say- the 12z EURO has joined the 12z CMC and now both are more like the GFS

It’s not as far west as gfs but it’s close. Ya the air data tonight should finish this mystery 

[CAPE]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

It’s not as far west as gfs but it’s close. Ya the air data tonight should finish this mystery 

Might add a bit of intrigue to HH anyway

[Ji]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The next few model cycles might be interesting.

this reminds me of Jan 25,2000 minus the snow and the wind

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

this reminds me of Jan 25,2000 minus the snow and the wind

Oh man yes please

[pazzo83]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

this reminds me of Jan 25,2000 minus the snow and the wind

seems more like Jan '96 minus the snow, wind, and general storminess.

[CAPE]

Think small. If I get 2" out of this its the biggest event of winter. WPC had my yard at about 30% as of this morning, and 70% of >= 1".

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, pazzo83 said:

seems more like Jan '96 minus the snow, wind, and general storminess.

And all the sleet 

That storm was annoying even as it turned out to be great. Hours of sleet in the middle. Could have been damn near 3 feet here instead of 20" or so. Can't recall the exact total.

[TSSN+]

@psuhoffman @mitchnick

Let’s roll

18z Hrrr

 

[MillvilleWx]

I mentioned the AI models the other for the setup end of weekend and that still absolutely holds. The fact they haven’t wavered and are even upticking (albeit slightly) should be a tell on the setup likely having some legs here. There will be a sharp western gradient most likely as best ascent will focused in corridor within the RER of the jet situated off the Atlantic coast. Best chance for “appreciable” snow will likely lie east of I-95, and more likely eastern shore to the coast. I don’t see more than 3-4” in any given location at the max, but widespread 1-3” in the impacted areas is certainly plausible in this scenario. I like areas just west of the coast for this one. Salisbury to Lewes area might be a good spot, but we’ll see as we get the CAMs involved by tomorrow and definitely by Sunday AM. 

[AlexD1990]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I mentioned the AI models the other for the setup end of weekend and that still absolutely holds. The fact they haven’t wavered and are even upticking (albeit slightly) should be a tell on the setup likely having some legs here. There will be a sharp western gradient most likely as best ascent will focused in corridor within the RER of the jet situated off the Atlantic coast. Best chance for “appreciable” snow will likely lie east of I-95, and more likely eastern shore to the coast. I don’t see more than 3-4” in any given location at the max, but widespread 1-3” in the impacted areas is certainly plausible in this scenario. I like areas just west of the coast for this one. Salisbury to Lewes area might be a good spot, but we’ll see as we get the CAMs involved by tomorrow and definitely by Sunday AM. 

Music to my ears 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, AlexD1990 said:

Music to my ears 

I’ll be down at my parents too. Watching playoff football with my Dad. Would love nothing more than football on the TV and some snow as ambiance! 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I mentioned the AI models the other for the setup end of weekend and that still absolutely holds. The fact they haven’t wavered and are even upticking (albeit slightly) should be a tell on the setup likely having some legs here. There will be a sharp western gradient most likely as best ascent will focused in corridor within the RER of the jet situated off the Atlantic coast. Best chance for “appreciable” snow will likely lie east of I-95, and more likely eastern shore to the coast. I don’t see more than 3-4” in any given location at the max, but widespread 1-3” in the impacted areas is certainly plausible in this scenario. I like areas just west of the coast for this one. Salisbury to Lewes area might be a good spot, but we’ll see as we get the CAMs involved by tomorrow and definitely by Sunday AM. 

And now we have the latest Euro and CMC runs showing some movement NW, aligning more with the general GFS idea of 1-3". CMC especially.

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

@psuhoffman @mitchnick

Let’s roll

18z Hrrr

 

Look at radar. Snow aloft. Looks and feels like it too.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

And now we have the latest Euro and CMC runs showing some movement NW, aligning more with the general GFS idea of 1-3". CMC especially.

I figured we’d get here so long as AI held firm, and it most certainly has. Nice little event for the eastern shore brewing. I’ll gladly take that! 

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I mentioned the AI models the other for the setup end of weekend and that still absolutely holds. The fact they haven’t wavered and are even upticking (albeit slightly) should be a tell on the setup likely having some legs here. There will be a sharp western gradient most likely as best ascent will focused in corridor within the RER of the jet situated off the Atlantic coast. Best chance for “appreciable” snow will likely lie east of I-95, and more likely eastern shore to the coast. I don’t see more than 3-4” in any given location at the max, but widespread 1-3” in the impacted areas is certainly plausible in this scenario. I like areas just west of the coast for this one. Salisbury to Lewes area might be a good spot, but we’ll see as we get the CAMs involved by tomorrow and definitely by Sunday AM. 

I mentioned this in my earlier post wrt the GFS- it has had this general area situated under that region-also a more impressive jet streak than the Euro.

[TSSN+]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Look at radar. Snow aloft. Looks and feels like it too.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

Have had flurries. Keep the column ready for later. 

[CAPE]

Maybe in retrospect a separate thread might have been better- we have 2 camps of folks in here talking past each other lol

[DDweatherman]

Just now, CAPE said:

Maybe in retrospect a separate thread might have been better- we have 2 camps of folks in here talking past each other lol

Correct, tomorrow favors us in the NW, Sunday favors your folks bay and east.