January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Jrlg1181]

48 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Winter is turning into a snoozefest.  Even fantasy range is wearing granny underwear.  What the hell is going on

Spring is coming ! Flowers , grass turning green , trees are beginning to bud - The Mid Atlantic flora is springing to life .... Awesome !  But yeah I could wait a few extra weeks for a few weeks of deep deep winter or at least one big dog Nesis storm ! Nothing beats heavy falling snow , the peace beauty and tranquility - not even left over deep snow on the ground can compare - ala Ji...

[winter_warlock]

GFS came nw again at 06z  compared to 00z

[MDScienceTeacher]

The euro has a nice clipper at hour 348

[MDScienceTeacher]

On more serious note, does anyone know what teleconnection/ anomaly this is over Bering and how long before it breaks down? I have a trip to California planned for the last week of Jan and I am thinking this will have a direct impact on waves/ swells but it will likely need to break down first. I was hoping to see a big swell event along the coast.

[Solution Man]

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

GFS came nw again at 06z  compared to 00z

That’s almost there another 100 nw and more expansive snow shield we are in business.  I don’t think we will know until the baroclinic zone sets up as the trough burrows into the east and the cold front clears the east coast. 

[Kevin Reilly]

32 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

We still have a lot of work to do with this storm.  I think as we move forward every storm track and intensity will be dependent on the other. 

[TSSN+]

6z euro says congratulations coastal Carolina’s and gives them 3-6”. 

[Scraff]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

6z euro says congratulations coastal Carolina’s and gives them 3-6”. 

What’s that old saying again? Dont trust 6z or 18z runs because they don’t use fresh data? I know there was something in the weenie handbook regarding that. I forgot the chapter and page though. 

[RevWarReenactor]

GFS in the extended range reinforces my thoughts going forward. A couple dustings here or there, followed by cutters. Warm wet, cold dry. 

[WxUSAF]

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

6z euro says congratulations coastal Carolina’s and gives them 3-6”. 

Did it move NW again though? Seems like euro was following GFS, just not as dramatically.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Did it move NW again though? Seems like euro was following GFS, just not as dramatically.

Looks like a little bit yes 

[winter_warlock]

27 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

GFS in the extended range reinforces my thoughts going forward. A couple dustings here or there, followed by cutters. Warm wet, cold dry. 

Yeah cause GFS in extended range is Soo reliable lmaoo

[mitchnick]

 

[CAPE]

38 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Did it move NW again though? Seems like euro was following GFS, just not as dramatically.

6z GEFS and EPS look very similar

[CAPE]

Improvement with the sharpness and orientation of the UL energy and surface low development location over the last few runs on the GFS. EURO trending the same way but surface low development is a bit further offshore

[Ji]

The eps ensembles took a severe snow map
Hit last night

[Ralph Wiggum]

38 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 

Someone get that man another cup of espresso !

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

6z euro says congratulations coastal Carolina’s and gives them 3-6”. 

Pretty wild that coastal Georgia will see more snow than us at this rate.

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Pretty wild that coastal Georgia will see more snow than us at this rate.

I'm not sure it's wild anymore lol

[BlizzardNole]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Pretty wild that coastal Georgia will see more snow than us at this rate.

Like last year when the Florida panhandle had a better storm than we did

[anotherman]

1 minute ago, BlizzardNole said:

Like last year when the Florida panhandle had a better storm than we did

Don't forget about New Orleans.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EPS.  Good luck eastern zones.  The rest of us wait at least another week....

[clskinsfan]

Ocean City looks like it is going to win again in the medium range. Ever since I bought my place there it has snowed more there than in the Shenandoah Valley. Getting ridiculous. 

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Ocean City looks like it is going to win again in the medium range. Ever since I bought my place there it has snowed more there than in the Shenandoah Valley. Getting ridiculous. 

Whats up with this? I've been watching the Shenandoah mountains for a snowing hiking trip for years. 4k plus mountains that never get snow. I've had more snow here alone the bay than Big Meadow at like 4500' elevation for the past 5 years.

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Ocean City looks like it is going to win again in the medium range. Ever since I bought my place there it has snowed more there than in the Shenandoah Valley. Getting ridiculous. 

I think it's  settled. You need to sell your place.

 

[WVclimo]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Whats up with this? I've been watching the Shenandoah mountains for a snowing hiking trip for years. 4k plus mountains that never get snow. I've had more snow here alone the bay than Big Meadow at like 4500' elevation for the past 5 years.

Hard to get snow without some moisture.  My yard has been below normal for annual precipitation for the past 6 years.  Same at HGR.

[dailylurker]

Just now, WVclimo said:

Hard to get snow without some moisture.  My yard has been below normal for annual precipitation for the past 6 years.  Same at HGR.

True. The maga drought isn't helping. The Shenandoah mountains have been a tinder box the past couple visits I've made out there. I wanted to climb Stoney Man in the snow this winter but that hasn't happened. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Whats up with this? I've been watching the Shenandoah mountains for a snowing hiking trip for years. 4k plus mountains that never get snow. I've had more snow here alone the bay than Big Meadow at like 4500' elevation for the past 5 years.

Big Meadows at around 3,400'. Almost got stuck there in an early "freak" snowstorm in 10/78. Crazy, crazy time getting off the mts in snow and sleet.