January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Jrlg1181]

48 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Winter is turning into a snoozefest.  Even fantasy range is wearing granny underwear.  What the hell is going on

Spring is coming ! Flowers , grass turning green , trees are beginning to bud - The Mid Atlantic flora is springing to life .... Awesome !  But yeah I could wait a few extra weeks for a few weeks of deep deep winter or at least one big dog Nesis storm ! Nothing beats heavy falling snow , the peace beauty and tranquility - not even left over deep snow on the ground can compare - ala Ji...

[winter_warlock]

GFS came nw again at 06z  compared to 00z

[MDScienceTeacher]

The euro has a nice clipper at hour 348

[MDScienceTeacher]

On more serious note, does anyone know what teleconnection/ anomaly this is over Bering and how long before it breaks down? I have a trip to California planned for the last week of Jan and I am thinking this will have a direct impact on waves/ swells but it will likely need to break down first. I was hoping to see a big swell event along the coast.

[Solution Man]

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

GFS came nw again at 06z  compared to 00z

That’s almost there another 100 nw and more expansive snow shield we are in business.  I don’t think we will know until the baroclinic zone sets up as the trough burrows into the east and the cold front clears the east coast. 

[Kevin Reilly]

32 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

We still have a lot of work to do with this storm.  I think as we move forward every storm track and intensity will be dependent on the other. 

[TSSN+]

6z euro says congratulations coastal Carolina’s and gives them 3-6”. 

[Scraff]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

6z euro says congratulations coastal Carolina’s and gives them 3-6”. 

What’s that old saying again? Dont trust 6z or 18z runs because they don’t use fresh data? I know there was something in the weenie handbook regarding that. I forgot the chapter and page though. 

[RevWarReenactor]

GFS in the extended range reinforces my thoughts going forward. A couple dustings here or there, followed by cutters. Warm wet, cold dry. 

[WxUSAF]

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

6z euro says congratulations coastal Carolina’s and gives them 3-6”. 

Did it move NW again though? Seems like euro was following GFS, just not as dramatically.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Did it move NW again though? Seems like euro was following GFS, just not as dramatically.

Looks like a little bit yes 

[winter_warlock]

27 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

GFS in the extended range reinforces my thoughts going forward. A couple dustings here or there, followed by cutters. Warm wet, cold dry. 

Yeah cause GFS in extended range is Soo reliable lmaoo

[mitchnick]

 

[CAPE]

38 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Did it move NW again though? Seems like euro was following GFS, just not as dramatically.

6z GEFS and EPS look very similar

[CAPE]

Improvement with the sharpness and orientation of the UL energy and surface low development location over the last few runs on the GFS. EURO trending the same way but surface low development is a bit further offshore

[Ji]

The eps ensembles took a severe snow map
Hit last night