January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Jrlg1181]

48 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Winter is turning into a snoozefest.  Even fantasy range is wearing granny underwear.  What the hell is going on

Spring is coming ! Flowers , grass turning green , trees are beginning to bud - The Mid Atlantic flora is springing to life .... Awesome !  But yeah I could wait a few extra weeks for a few weeks of deep deep winter or at least one big dog Nesis storm ! Nothing beats heavy falling snow , the peace beauty and tranquility - not even left over deep snow on the ground can compare - ala Ji...

[winter_warlock]

GFS came nw again at 06z  compared to 00z

[MDScienceTeacher]

The euro has a nice clipper at hour 348

[MDScienceTeacher]

On more serious note, does anyone know what teleconnection/ anomaly this is over Bering and how long before it breaks down? I have a trip to California planned for the last week of Jan and I am thinking this will have a direct impact on waves/ swells but it will likely need to break down first. I was hoping to see a big swell event along the coast.

[Solution Man]

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

GFS came nw again at 06z  compared to 00z

That’s almost there another 100 nw and more expansive snow shield we are in business.  I don’t think we will know until the baroclinic zone sets up as the trough burrows into the east and the cold front clears the east coast. 

[Kevin Reilly]

32 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

We still have a lot of work to do with this storm.  I think as we move forward every storm track and intensity will be dependent on the other. 

[TSSN+]

6z euro says congratulations coastal Carolina’s and gives them 3-6”. 

[Scraff]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

6z euro says congratulations coastal Carolina’s and gives them 3-6”. 

What’s that old saying again? Dont trust 6z or 18z runs because they don’t use fresh data? I know there was something in the weenie handbook regarding that. I forgot the chapter and page though. 

[RevWarReenactor]

GFS in the extended range reinforces my thoughts going forward. A couple dustings here or there, followed by cutters. Warm wet, cold dry. 

[WxUSAF]

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

6z euro says congratulations coastal Carolina’s and gives them 3-6”. 

Did it move NW again though? Seems like euro was following GFS, just not as dramatically.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Did it move NW again though? Seems like euro was following GFS, just not as dramatically.

Looks like a little bit yes 

[winter_warlock]

27 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

GFS in the extended range reinforces my thoughts going forward. A couple dustings here or there, followed by cutters. Warm wet, cold dry. 

Yeah cause GFS in extended range is Soo reliable lmaoo

[mitchnick]

 

[CAPE]

38 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Did it move NW again though? Seems like euro was following GFS, just not as dramatically.

6z GEFS and EPS look very similar