December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Kitz Craver]

54 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

It literally can go either way, 50/50 as far as Christmas and a warm up or staying chilly. 

I think staying on focus for the possible snow event this Sunday makes more sense. We can't even figure out what's going to happen in 4 days let alone 2 weeks

 

Wolfie?

[WxWatcher007]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it's pretty clear the pattern is going to break.

 

43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Just spitballing here, but even if that SE ridge starts cycling like JB, that temp gradient may be close by and we could pull off some overrunning events…obviously CAD spots would be favored for more glop.

So even though I like to poke the embers with d16 op maps of +20C 850s it doesn’t mean I’m calling for it and that we can’t get some wintry weather. Maybe a reshuffling of the deck would work in everyone’s favor.

Yeah, it's increasingly likely we see a reshuffle, which makes sense obviously because we're running massive negative departures, but the devil is in the details. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Might as well just close the shades till January: wide left, wide right, wide right, wide left, wide left. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Might see a Christmas Day severe weather outbreak in the Mississippi/Ohio Valley if this keeps up 

GFS is soupy 80s to Virginia where they have deep pack now lol .. I can see Christmas week delivering a nasty ice storm for the northeast GFS has the cold in Canada ready to be tapped .. Kevin may get his dream, a very dark Christmas

[dryslot]

Just went to a WWA here for 2-4" of mixed precip and a light glaze of ice, Beats plain rain though.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS is soupy 80s to Virginia where they have deep pack now lol .. I can see Christmas week delivering a nasty ice storm for the northeast GFS has the cold in Canada ready to be tapped .. Kevin may get his dream, a very dark Christmas

Absolutely something to keep in mind. Like dendrite said...this could easily turn into an overrunning pattern. Sometimes its easy to get caught up in the H5 charts but the sfc may not always connect. Remember back in like 2017(?) the Great Plains were under like 560 heights and it was widespread single digits at the sfc lol because they had that stout Arctic high. 

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

LOL, the CFS from 00z is the best model of all for the 14th

Some of the lousier runs try to spawn a norlun in the GOM. Exciting.

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Just went to a WWA here for 2-4" of mixed precip and a light glaze of ice, Beats plain rain though.

3k looks like 1”+ here. We both ride that ptype line though.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

3k looks like 1”+ here. We both ride that ptype line though.

3K was ugly here, 12z RAP was 2", That's what i see anyways, It's pretty borderline, I expect about 1-2" max of a mix, Looks like we don't sniff freezing at the surface anyways.

[ineedsnow]

It's the NAM.but looks interesting at hr 84

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

It's the NAM.but looks interesting at hr 84

Sure does

 

 

If you live in Bloomington, IL

[SouthCoastMA]

41 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

...and a Melt Outbreak for some people here lol

If you haven't noticed, that has already started and may peak well before Christmas. 

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

If you haven't noticed, that has already started and may peak well before Christmas. 

Oh I have noticed lol

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

If you haven't noticed, that has already started and may peak well before Christmas. 

Lol.. for those of us who can "weather" the storm (so to speak), grab your popcorn and enjoy the show. We'll be back to our regular scheduled program after Christmas.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just realized my daughter is under a winter storm warning in S VT... wheee!!!

[Torch Tiger]

hoping for a very strong cutter with a trackable fine-line. Santa?

[H2Otown_WX]

35 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Sure does

 

 

If you live in Bloomington, IL

Meh, how'd that epic pattern work out for you?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

hoping for a very strong cutter with a trackable fine-line. Santa?

Santa having to go down the chimney straight into the basement?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

47 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

It's the NAM.but looks interesting at hr 84

Looks like it would probably cut across NNE

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

29.7°, light snow with the sun still coming through. Looks pretty.

Hoping for an inch of glop 'round these parts.

*edit: Android's stock compression algorithm is hot garbage. Moved to windows and fixed the images. 

 

 

[NW_of_GYX]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Just went to a WWA here for 2-4" of mixed precip and a light glaze of ice, Beats plain rain though.

I mentioned in the other thread I thought this might verify colder than modeled. Might not mean much in terms of sensible wx but could make a difference hyper locally 

[dryslot]

Just now, NW_of_GYX said:

I mentioned in the other thread I thought this might verify colder than modeled. Might not mean much in terms of sensible wx but could make a difference hyper locally 

Its a wait and see type deal for the fence sitters.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

This would be lol though

Looks like the post-Xmas 1984 warm shot. ORH hit 70F in that. Latest 70F on record. 

[backedgeapproaching]

26 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Just realized my daughter is under a winter storm warning in S VT... wheee!!!

What town is she in?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Some sunshine coming through the clouds now.  Zero precipitation yet.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, backedgeapproaching said:

What town is she in?

Bennington, below 1000'... so she probably won't hit the warning amounts

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/plowable-snowfall-still-favored-sunday.html

First Call probably tomorrow or Friday, barring an unforeseen "poof".

[forkyfork]

they need to start making hallmark movies where it's 45 and raining on christmas

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/12/plowable-snowfall-still-favored-sunday.html

First Call probably tomorrow or Friday, barring an unforeseen "poof".

For DC or SNE?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Bennington, below 1000'... so she probably won't hit the warning amounts

Bennington is kind of a snow hole, they get shadowed in all directions.