Hurricane Melissa

[GaWx]

 6Z Euro is very similar to the 0Z with strongest again at 968 S of C Jamaica, 988 near Kingston, and sharp right turn to E tip of Jamaica exiting at 992.

[GaWx]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
 
...MELISSA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AND FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY 
THIS WEEKEND...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES 
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 75.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

[NorthHillsWx]

Outflow finally expanding to the west. Seems like it’s getting there 

[NorthHillsWx]

Recon would indicate a hurricane 

[hawkeye_wx]

The Google model continues to not budge.  Many of its tracks are south of west for the next couple days.

 

[GaWx]

8:27 AM EDT: 986 mb very near H status
 

943
URNT12 KWBC 251227
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132025
A. 25/12:03:08Z
B. 16.41 deg N 074.88 deg W
C. NA
D. 986 mb
E. 195 deg 16 kt
F. OPEN SW
G. C18
H. NA
I. NA
J. 167 deg 65 kt
K. 067 deg 10 nm 12:00:31Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 325 deg 46 kt
O. 242 deg 13 nm 12:06:34Z
P. 14 C / 2460 m
Q. 21 C / 2443 m
R. 15 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 1113A MELISSA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 68 KT 299 / 16 NM 10:47:30Z

[Newman]

Cat 3, 4, 5... Whatever the landfalling intensity is, I'm sure much of Jamaica does not have infrastructure built to withstand major hurricane winds. Really hoping a worst case scenario (i.e. right eye wall traverses through Kingston) doesn't happen. 

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, Newman said:

Cat 3, 4, 5... Whatever the landfalling intensity is, I'm sure much of Jamaica does not have infrastructure built to withstand major hurricane winds. Really hoping a worst case scenario (i.e. right eye wall traverses through Kingston) doesn't happen. 

Hopefully the hurricane models are somewhat too strong as is not uncommon. 0Z and 6Z Euro say it won’t quite make it to cat 3 status before landfall although it was too weak as of 8AM (991 mb) and only down to 988 mb at 2PM. So, the implication is likely at least cat 3 offshore. But then it weakens her 20 mb by the time it gets to Kingston with ENE movement over E Jamaica. Is that a realistic possibility? Regardless, Kingston eastward still gets extremely heavy rain (15-20”+), which likely remains the biggest danger.

 ——————-

Recon through 9:10AM:

 

[qg_omega]

15 minutes ago, Newman said:

Cat 3, 4, 5... Whatever the landfalling intensity is, I'm sure much of Jamaica does not have infrastructure built to withstand major hurricane winds. Really hoping a worst case scenario (i.e. right eye wall traverses through Kingston) doesn't happen. 

6z GFS with the best scenario

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

6z GFS with the best scenario

Best for Jamaica but worst for SW Haiti with insane amounts of rainfall

[olafminesaw]

Looks like it will get the upgrade to hurricane at 11

[olafminesaw]

[GaWx]

56 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Looks like it will get the upgrade to hurricane at 11

Not yet:

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
 
...MELISSA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AND FORECAST TO RAPIDLY 
INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 75.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

[GaWx]

Josh is on his way to Jamaica:

 

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
 
Melissa is very nearly a hurricane. Data from both the Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate the storm has become better 
organized, with a 20 n mi eyewall that has been coming an going. 
This structure has also been seen on radar images out of Kingston, 
Jamaica. Compared to last night, Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) data
indicates the tropical cyclone is much better aligned vertically, 
though some residual eastward tilt with height exists in the 
mid-levels. The peak flight level winds at 700 mb were up to 68 kt. 
Using a standard 0.9 adjustment factor to surface winds yields an 
intensity of 60 kt, but Melissa could become a hurricane at any 
time, as other satellite intensity estimates already support a 
higher value. 

The initial motion is crawling along to the west-northwest,
estimated between aircraft fixes to be 285/1 kt. Now that the
tropical cyclone has become better aligned vertically, it should
increasingly feel the deep-layer steering, which has a slight south 
of due-west component from the latest ECMWF steering diagnostics. 
The spread in the model solutions even in the next 12-36 hours is 
higher than usual, with the AI models, Google DeepMind ensemble 
mean (GDMI) and ECMWF-AI (AIFS) on the south and western end of the 
guidance envelope showing a westward or even west-southwestward 
motion in the short-term, while the traditional dynamical aids 
(ECMWF, HAFS-A/B) show more of a west-northwestward drift 
towards Jamaica over the next 24-36 hours. Still though, nearly all 
of the reliable track guidance (discounting the GFS which has been 
an eastward outlier since the storm formed) shows Melissa making 
landfall in Jamaica sometime in the 60-72 hour time frame. During 
this time, a digging mid-latitude trough in the southeastern United 
States is expected to create a new weakness to the north of 
Melissa, which should result in the cyclone taking a sharp turn to 
the northeast. While the guidance is in good agreement on this 
general turn with relatively small across-track spread, there 
remains high along-track spread in the solutions, best highlighted 
by the Google DeepMind ensemble which shows a spread in possible 
locations in 96 h from still inland over Jamaica to northeast 
of Cuba in the southwestern Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is a 
touch south of the prior track for the first 24-48 hours, but 
converges on the prior track forecast thereafter. This is a little 
on the eastern side of the track guidance envelope, giving credence 
to the AI model solutions (GDMI, ECAI) which to date are the best 
preforming track guidance this hurricane season. 
 
Melissa seems to be shaking off the negative effects of westerly 
shear now that the storm is becoming better vertically aligned. 
Thus, it appears likely that a period of rapid intensification 
will occur as the storm moves slowly over very warm ocean waters 
(30-31C sea-surface temperatures) which is also over the highest 
oceanic heat content in the entire Atlantic basin, which will limit 
initial ocean upwelling under the slow moving storm. Similar to the 
previous cycles, roughly 40/50 Google DeepMind ensemble members show 
Melissa becoming a Category 5. While I am not ready to forecast that 
intensity yet given the track uncertainty, that remains a 
possibility. After 48 h, inner core processes (such as eyewall 
replacement cycles) could cause fluctuations in intensity, but 
Melissa is still expected to make landfall in Jamaica as an 
upper-end Category 4 hurricane, which could be the strongest direct 
landfall for the island in since tropical cyclone record keeping has 
been made in the Atlantic Basin. Weakening is expected as Melissa 
moves over the high terrain of Jamaica and eastern Cuba, with 
further weakening expected thereafter as southwesterly vertical wind 
shear increases. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the high end 
of the guidance, but closest too the Google DeepMind ensemble mean, 
which has also been on of our best intensity guidance performers 
this year.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Jamaica:  Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period
of damaging winds and heavy rainfall beginning tonight, likely
causing catastrophic flash flooding, numerous landslides, extensive
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication
outages, and potentially prolonged isolation of communities.  A
life-threatening storm surge is also likely along portions of the
southern coast early next week. All preparations should be completed
today.

2. Haiti:  Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next
week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and
potentially prolonged isolation of communities.  Strong winds could
also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula.
 
3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
regions.
 
4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:  
Monitor Melissa closely.  There is an increasing risk of a 
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the 
middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening 
flash flooding and landslides is increasing.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 16.5N  75.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 16.4N  75.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 16.5N  76.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 16.6N  76.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 16.7N  77.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 60H  28/0000Z 17.2N  77.5W  130 KT 150 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 17.9N  77.2W  115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
 96H  29/1200Z 20.5N  75.1W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
120H  30/1200Z 25.0N  71.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...OVER WATER
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

6z GFS with the best scenario

12Z GFS is the furthest west run yet with it going NNE over Kingston at 969 while strengthening during the 6 hour crossover. Kingston gets 35” 

 But otoh, SW Haiti gets way less than prior runs gave.

[Amped]

The eye is closed off on radar now.

[olafminesaw]

Anyone have an idea of the construction quality in Kingston? I. Know a lot of these Carribean islands are pretty well constructed cinder block buildings, but poor areas/slums may be vulnerable. Obviously flooding a huge concern regardless

[BxEngine]

6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Props to the gfs

Yea for sure

[Interstate]

She is really getting going now 

[cptcatz]

It's pretty amazing how bad the short term forecast was for the GFS. For days on end, it's two day forecast was hundreds of miles off. Hopefully NOAA makes some changes, pretty embarrassing. 

[olafminesaw]

No doubt that the Euro has outperformed the GFS on this one, with the NHC being remarkably consistent

[Amped]

23 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

It's pretty amazing how bad the short term forecast was for the GFS. For days on end, it's two day forecast was hundreds of miles off. Hopefully NOAA makes some changes, pretty embarrassing. 

The initialization was really bad on wed-friday. It was already 100 miles too far east and 10mb too strong at hour zero on some runs.

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

No doubt that the Euro has outperformed the GFS on this one, with the NHC being remarkably consistent

 UKMET has been even worse with a number of runs early on hitting Nicaragua and with it then correcting NE but only slowly. This issue was likely mainly due to it having it too weak. It is such a hot or miss model as it was stellar/the best with Imelda as well with Ian among others. 

[WxWatcher007]

19 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s off to the races now. 

Organization before intensification 

[batmanbrad]

both HAFS-A and HAFS-B (12Z) models showing a direct hit to Kingston with around 940mb, yikes

[GaWx]

 

[GaWx]

12Z Euro: goes back to an extent to the pre 0Z/6Z runs by being a bit further S of Jamaica thus helping it to get stronger (962) and thus it hits Jamaica at 971 instead of 986-8. It then goes back to a NE move over Jamaica and exits at 977 vs 992 of 0Z/6Z. As a result, the 20” line goes back further W to center of Jamaica.

[olafminesaw]

Heavy bands of rain starting to hit Jamaica

[Floydbuster]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro: goes back to an extent to the pre 0Z/6Z runs by being a bit further S of Jamaica thus helping it to get stronger (962) and thus it hits Jamaica at 971 instead of 986-8. It then goes back to a NE move over Jamaica and exits at 977 vs 992 of 0Z/6Z. As a result, the 20” line goes back further W to center of Jamaica.

Interesting. I never really look at intensity models once the inner core is established, because often times, all bets are off.