September Discobs 2025

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, high risk said:

          You've noted several recent cases in which the ECAIFS led the way in identifying a threat, and this is likely to be another example.

Sorta similar setup too with the coastal. Op Euro goes nuts with it. 2” swath through metro corridor. Would be nice after this storm is a semi-bust.

[LP08]

Euro with 2-3" of rain through Monday.  GFS less than 1"

[Weather Will]

Nice steady rain...

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, LP08 said:

Euro with 2-3" of rain through Monday.  GFS less than 1"

Spread out over several days. Nothing too heavy. Perfect.

[Ji]

5 hours ago, high risk said:

          You've noted several recent cases in which the ECAIFS led the way in identifying a threat, and this is likely to be another example.

it seems to have backed off though

[Bob Chill]

Fall color starting to pop at the top of Smith Mtn (about 2k'). Maple, elm, and hickory mostly. Oaks still mostly green but the acorns are carpet bombing everything lol.

Lots of pines on the mtn so it looks really nice during peak with the contrast. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Have yet to get a drop of rain this week 

[WxWatcher007]

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Sorta similar setup too with the coastal. Op Euro goes nuts with it. 2” swath through metro corridor. Would be nice after this storm is a semi-bust.

Euro is showing a deep tropical feed through the region with the cutoff trough in the southeast and future Imelda moving north out of the Bahamas. 

[KAOS]

prolonged deluge

[CAPE]

Getting hit pretty good with this line of storms moving through. Pouring.

[CAPE]

0.95"

Didn't think I would see much of anything here until tomorrow. 

[kgottwald]

I had foolishly allowed myself to believe that we were actually done with 70-degree dewpoints for the year, and there was even reason to hope that the Atlantic would be devoid of tropical systems except far-off fish storms. 

Suddenly it all comes crashing down!

[LP08]

0z euro would up the fun meter vs the last several months.

[H2O]

7am thunder is always impressive

[MN Transplant]

40 minutes ago, LP08 said:

0z euro would up the fun meter vs the last several months.

I thought it was just the first storm, but then the fantasy-land up the Bay scenario popped up.

[GramaxRefugee]

0.43" yesterday. Couple more hundredths overnight. 

Dark, wet, morning.

[yoda]

Morning AFD from LWX already mentioning PRE potential 

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front looks to sit just east of the Chesapeake Bay
Friday morning. A few lingering showers may be possible for
areas east of I- 95 and down across southern MD and the northern
neck of VA. Clouds will gradually thin with filtered breaks of
sunshine, especially later in the day and in areas mainly north
of I-66/US-50. The front itself will continue toward the
Delmarva coast before stalling into the upcoming weekend. With
the frontal zone nearby expect continued scattered shower
chances in areas south of I-66 (central VA Piedmont) Friday
afternoon into Friday evening. High temperatures Friday will
push back into the upper 70s and low 80s (upper 60s and low 70s
mountains). Overnight lows Friday night will fall back into mid
to upper 50s west of I-81 with low to mid 60s further east.

Surface high pressure tries to build back into the region from the
Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal
boundary will remain in the vicinity of the lower Delmarva coast and
Carolinas with an upper level low pressure system cutoff within the
mean flow over the southern Appalachians. In addition to this
Tropical Storm Humberto will continue further north toward the
Bahamas and southeast U.S coast late Saturday into Sunday. The
interaction amongst all these surface/upper level features could
lead to a pseudo PRE event across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
region as early as Saturday night into Sunday morning. Lots of
uncertainty remains in regards to where this event will occur given
the interaction and overall placement of the aforementioned features
above. The dynamics are there though given the approaching
upper level trough and surface cold front, low pressure to the
south, and influx of tropical moisture along the stalled
boundary at the coast. Something that will have to continue to
monitor in the coming days ahead. Either way if this were to
occur we could be looking at drought busting rainfall for much
of the region to round the weekend into early next. Highs
Saturday will range from the mid to upper 70s over central and
northeast MD to mid 60s and low 70s over the mountains/Shenadoah
Valley. Lows Saturday night will fall back into the upper 50s
and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UL troughing and an associated cut-off ULL over the southern
Appalachians will meander over the same general area through much of
the long term. For Sunday, rather interesting set up with some model
guidance and ensemble suites starting to hint at a pseudo PRE event
with heavy rain in the Mid-Atlantic. Lots of uncertainties wrt
placement and actual occurrence, but dynamics are there: approaching
trough and sfc cold front with UL right entrance of jet streak, some
MUCAPE with low-level stability, and near record PWs. Depending on
timing may start before sunrise Sunday, and go into Monday, but
something to keep an eye on.

Thereafter, attention turns to the tropics and how Tropical Storm
Humberto interacts with invest 94L and the trough across the eastern
CONUS. Lots of uncertainties and NHC has the latest official
forecast at hurricanes.gov.

Temperatures will be in the 70s each day with higher elevations
staying in the 60s. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s for
those east of the Blue Ridge and 50s for those along and west.