Hurricane Erin: 125 MPH - 946mb - WNW @ 13

[yoda]

Impressive 

https://x.com/Sekai_WX/status/1956739362927841415

 

[Windspeed]

scheiße...

[hawkeye_wx]

Erin appears to be strengthening a bit again.  The ring around the center has become more uniform and the cloud tops have cooled.

[Windspeed]

I dare say Erin has continued to deepen merely looking at radar and satellite imagery. We may be looking at a sub 910 hPa Atlantic hurricane now. This eyewall has taken on Irma and Dorian visuals for that location of the Atlantic Basin.

[jconsor]

Powerful Hurricane Erin continues to track on the southern edge of the model spread on Sat, as shown in the attached image. Erin's actual track in six hour increments is shown in the black X's, with NHC's main consensus forecast model TVCN shown in blue, with darker shades indicating more recent forecast model runs. You can see Erin made a notable bend to the left (turning from west-northwest to due west) in the past 12-18 hours and is currently about 50-75 miles south of consensus model forecasts from 24 hours ago. 

Here's an in-depth post I wrote on Fri describing my concerns that ensemble forecasts are underdoing W. Atl ridging, and explaining why US impacts can't be ruled out yet. It wasn't posted until now due to coming down with a stomach virus and some technical issues.  My thoughts on Erin's track and potential US impacts haven't changed much since Fri.  Would appreciate if you can take a look at the post and send me feedback (you can PM me here or write to [email protected]), as well as spread the word about my Substack.  Thank you guys!
https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/arrested-development

[WxFreak11]

Thankfully we can enjoy the absolute magnificence of Erin with no land masses affected. This would have been catastrophic if it hit land.


.

[wthrmn654]

Insane that the euro shifted west, icon is west and euro AI is west... of course there not tropical models but still insane

[hawkeye_wx]

I sure would love to have a plane in there right now.  The CDO is looking vicious.

[WxWatcher007]

Still impacts out there. The Virgin Islands are under a flash flood warning and are getting lashed by rain bands.

[Windspeed]

RE: US impacts, despite the westward adjustments, they overall will not change. The 500 dm heights of the WATL ridge may be slightly underdone versus modeling, and Erin may also be pumping the SW periphery at present due to its extreme intensity; however, the mid-latitudinal troughs are still coming with a dome behind them that is on a collision course with Erin by 70°W. Erin will go with the southerly flow as Azores ridging drops SW, hooking it N, then NE and swiftly out into the North Atlantic. Interestingly, Erin's deep transition combined with strong rebuilding of the Bermuda extension of WATL heights late next week may spell trouble for what might be down the pipeline, however. But we'll save that for the main seasonal thread.

[wthrmn654]

The eye is getting smaller atleast looking at a loop of it just now

[wthrmn654]

[USCG RS]

35 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Powerful Hurricane Erin continues to track on the southern edge of the model spread on Sat, as shown in the attached image. Erin's actual track in six hour increments is shown in the black X's, with NHC's main consensus forecast model TVCN shown in blue, with darker shades indicating more recent forecast model runs. You can see Erin made a notable bend to the left (turning from west-northwest to due west) in the past 12-18 hours and is currently about 50-75 miles south of consensus model forecasts from 24 hours ago. 

Here's an in-depth post I wrote on Fri describing my concerns that ensemble forecasts are underdoing W. Atl ridging, and explaining why US impacts can't be ruled out yet. It wasn't posted until now due to coming down with a stomach virus and some technical issues.  My thoughts on Erin's track and potential US impacts haven't changed much since Fri.  Would appreciate if you can take a look at the post and send me feedback (you can PM me here or write to [email protected]), as well as spread the word about my Substack.  Thank you guys!
https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/arrested-development

What you linked is a great write up. 

[Floydbuster]

Recon should be in there in the next hour.

[bugalou]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

3rd year in a row with top 1% Rapid Intensification

2023 was Lee

2024 was Milton

2025 Erin

I am not sure how many younger people are on here, but as an older head watching the tropics since the late 80s, I cannot stress how rare this is. The fact this is the third year in a row this happened and Erin arguably did it even faster and more efficiently than previous years is concerning.  There have been a couple RI bombs in the Pacific too. I hope someone is working on a study as to what is driving this. Obviously CC is involved, but other processes/factors have to be involved and I think shoving it all in a CC column maybe leaving some good science on the table. In any case my jaw hit the floor waking up today and seeing What Erin did. Thank God its a fish.

[NavarreDon]

https://x.com/maxvelocitywx/status/1956828865252172028?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


.

[Wannabehippie]

Latest from NHC.

 

5:00 PM AST Sat Aug 16
Location: 20.0°N 64.0°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 915 mb
Max sustained: 160 mph

[Wannabehippie]

Is Erin under going a ERC?

blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/7eca5388-017a-47ce-ba1f-5432dbb94754

[DDweatherman]

When tracking season gets heavy we’re gonna need a muzzle for Barry

[Floydbuster]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

When tracking season gets heavy we’re gonna need a muzzle for Barry

I believe that we all have a right to post threads, make comments, and show our enthusiasm and love for hurricanes. We all share a common passion for weather, and all aspects of meteorology. The guy is excited and loves to post....

 

 

...then again if he aggravatives me too much I'm gonna have to silence him on ignore.  

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[dbullsfan]

7 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I believe that we all have a right to post threads, make comments, and show our enthusiasm and love for hurricanes. We all share a common passion for weather, and all aspects of meteorology. The guy is excited and loves to post....

 

 

...then again if he aggravatives me too much I'm gonna have to silence him on ignore.  

agree but when we ultimately get a storm that has more direct impacts on land a lot of his post should be in the banter thread imo. For me I'm not to worried about it with Erin because its 95% likely a fish event but if it was headed toward florida I know I'd rather deal without the noise because I actually try to use the information in these threads to make decisions and I'm sure I'm probably not the only one and I sure don't want to hear him rooting the storm on like it is Messi going for a penalty kick. 

[NorthHillsWx]

EURO GFS and ICON are all uncomfortably close to OBX now

[BarryStantonGBP]

what's "resent"

[BarryStantonGBP]

35 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

When tracking season gets heavy we’re gonna need a muzzle for Barry

 

30 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I believe that we all have a right to post threads, make comments, and show our enthusiasm and love for hurricanes. We all share a common passion for weather, and all aspects of meteorology. The guy is excited and loves to post....

 

 

...then again if he aggravatives me too much I'm gonna have to silence him on ignore.  

u wot m8

I just landed in ibiza while checking on erin updates outside pacha and the first thing I see is me being mistaken for a chihuahua

anyway did an ERC get to her yet? she seems steady

[Amped]

The inverted troff to the north is going to be funneling winds into the Mid Atlantic coast. This could help push some waves onshore.

 

[marsman]

5 minutes ago, Amped said:

The inverted troff to the north is going to be funneling winds into the Mid Atlantic coast. This could help push some waves onshore.

Possible NC12 overwash. NCDOT may canx some of the ferries too. The bold is my add:

Quote

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
420 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

NCZ203-205-170830-
Northern Outer Banks-Hatteras Island-
420 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING north of
Cape Hatteras...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong long period swell from the distant Hurricane Erin is forecast
to begin arriving as early as Sunday. This swell is expected to peak
midweek at a time of higher than normal astronomical tides, which
could lead to coastal hazards, such as ocean overwash, beach erosion,
and potential coastal flooding.

Expect heightened rip current threat and deteriorating marine
conditions through next week as well.

...

 

[marsman]

50+ mph gusts in northern BVI. 

[DDweatherman]

22 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

 

u wot m8

I just landed in ibiza while checking on erin updates outside pacha and the first thing I see is me being mistaken for a chihuahua

anyway did an ERC get to her yet? she seems steady

I’m just razzing you hahaha. I’m excited for tracking though. This is a good appetizer. 

[hawkeye_wx]

The pressure has risen all the way up to 930 mb.