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Refresher snow & obs between ~midnight and Noon Sat Feb 17 2024


wdrag
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5 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

 

Just checking the NWS Upton observations.  9.9 Coney Island and 7.6 Bay Ridge? Was just scrolling up here and didn't see that mentioned, and those stand out against the other readings.  Those are pretty remarkable no?

That 9.9 seems a little too high . 

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8 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

 

Just checking the NWS Upton observations.  9.9 Coney Island and 7.6 Bay Ridge? Was just scrolling up here and didn't see that mentioned, and those stand out against the other readings.  Those are pretty remarkable no?

Yeah, as soon as the band stopped making headway north in SE PA and headed mostly due east I knew I wasn't getting in on it but happy for the places that got relatively ripped off in the last storm. My 3" roughly is what was expected so I can't complain. 

Models for a couple days were showing a northern fronto band somewhere and the N trend stopped just short for me. But with the dynamics at play like Bluewave showed it's no surprise it was as insane as it got, and we saw 8-10" amounts with it in Ohio in the same narrow area. But where there's the crazy lift next to it there's subsidence and there wasn't especially much moisture with the storm to catch up elsewhere. The snow here overnight was little dust flakes that shows how little lift there was. When the crazy band pivoted away and subsidence ended, I was able to start catching up a little with the hangback snows and bigger flakes. 

15.5-16" on the season (there's part of one storm I missed here). Halfway roughly to average.

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7 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

 

Just checking the NWS Upton observations.  9.9 Coney Island and 7.6 Bay Ridge? Was just scrolling up here and didn't see that mentioned, and those stand out against the other readings.  Those are pretty remarkable no?

8 inches at my house in Sheepshead Bay so pretty consistent along the southern areas of Brooklyn 

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Coney island seems a little too much . Around 7-8seems more reasonable.

This was my area in south Brooklyn

FB_IMG_1708172026388.jpg

Are your service drops (power lines to the house) always that low? Or is it just the snows weight? 

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5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

One of these days we'll get a 4'+ blizzard. Climate change assisted snow bomb. 

On my bucket list... It's a blizzard warning for July 4. Will we ever get it.. Who knows.  But something I've always wanted to see. 

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25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

One of these days we'll get a 4'+ blizzard. Climate change assisted snow bomb. 

Bring it on.  I will say the HRRR and some other models did well on the I-78 death band.  Albeit not nearly as much snow was modeled but where it set up was fairly accurate.  

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@SnowGoose69  @brooklynwx99 @wdrag @forkyfork @SBUWX23 or any other met, or someone with knowledge, who would like to chime in.

It appears that these types of bands are impossible to predict, even right up to game time. That's also what I've always seen said  

That withstanding, is there anything that can point to where a band like this may set up - geographically prior to now casting? Or are we just not technologically advanced enough to see and predict where these will set up?

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Just now, USCG RS said:

@SnowGoose69  @brooklynwx99 @wdrag @forkyfork @SBUWX23 or any other met, or someone with knowledge, who would like to chime in.

It appears that these types of bands are impossible to predict, even right up to game time. That's also what I've always seen said  

That withstanding, is there anything that can point to where a band like this may set up - geographically prior to now casting? Or are we just not technologically advanced enough to see and predict where these will set up?

Not really sure but Bernie Rayno says follow the 528 thickness line, but that was news to me 

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[mention=58]SnowGoose69[/mention]  [mention=9996]brooklynwx99[/mention] [mention=568]wdrag[/mention] [mention=63]forkyfork[/mention] [mention=65]SBUWX23[/mention] or any other met, or someone with knowledge, who would like to chime in.
It appears that these types of bands are impossible to predict, even right up to game time. That's also what I've always seen said  
That withstanding, is there anything that can point to where a band like this may set up - geographically prior to now casting? Or are we just not technologically advanced enough to see and predict where these will set up?
Amounts like what occurred are essentially impossible to predict but the existence of the strong banding signatures are handled better by today's modeling. This was strong mid-level f-gen, good jet dynamics, and the combined robust lift being well aligned with a very deep and saturated DGZ.

You could find guidance that showed on planar view and cross sections the strong f-gen circulation, good RH, and slantwise instability, the issue is the exact location and the ratios under banding of that nature. I think the HRRR did an excellent job with the depiction of the band on simulated reflectivity.

When you see something like that, you just kind of have to throw out the verbatim snow outputs and assume a very narrow corridor of much higher ratios that could result in totals like what occurred even with QPF probably not being terribly far off, and even that would lbe too low and the gradient sharper than you could possibly forecast. The OKX AFD yesterday was excellent in hinting at what took place. Worth a read.


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17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Crazy. Final total was 11 here and it looks beautiful. This is very reminiscent of the phl snow band back in December 2013 

It’s really great to see your area score a top 10 snowiest day for the month of February. 
 

Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall 
for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
1 19.8 2006-02-12
2 19.0 1961-02-04
3 17.9 1983-02-12
4 13.2 1978-02-07
5 13.0 2003-02-17
- 13.0 1967-02-07
- 13.0 1902-02-17
6 11.5 2010-02-11
7 11.0 2024-02-17
- 11.0 1926-02-10
8 10.5 1995-02-04
9 10.1 1987-02-23
10 10.0 1907-02-04
- 10.0 1899-02-13
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