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    Winter 2018 Discussion

    Chiming back in after a long break. We won't put anything out locally (from LOT) until November but wanted to offer some prelim thoughts. Assuming we do have a weak Nino, the composite favors a cool east and warm west and a dry signal in this region. Interestingly the most recent Euro seasonal had this sort of look and the cold peaking in Feb like in recent weak to lower end moderate Ninos (02-03, 06-07 and 14-15). The change I would've made to the outlook would be to remove the low warm probs over southeast half of IA, southern WI, northern IL, far northern IN and southern lower MI and gotten rid of the warm probs in the northeast. The dry signal here is pretty reasonable from past similar events. Of course all it takes is one big dog or a few sig events to skew the seasonal snowfall, which is what happened for parts of the sub in 2014-15. Outside of GHD II, that was a cool and mostly dry winter locally.
  2. Probably was them since I heard there weren't too many people out, funny coincidence. Did they say that I work for NWS Chicago? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  3. Yup, Nelson is a good guy, I worked with him when I was a SCEP at OKX from Feb 2009 to July 2010. OKX is aware of that damage. I sent a bunch of photos to my friend who works there and was on a midnight shift last night and he passed it to the day shift for survey purposes. I'm just confused why the MIC chose to start the tornado by the church and not farther southwest. Since that damage is so close by I doubt they missed it. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  4. They got the start point of the tornado wrong. My parents live and I grew up on 121st street between 25th rd and 25th ave. They went out last night after the tornado happened and drove around and took photos. There was some decent damage southwest of the designated St Fidelis Church start point on 120th street between 18th and 20th ave and on 121st street just northeast of there. Might have been some damage closer to Flushing Bay even. The most noteworthy damage on 120th street near 20th ave were a couple large trees down and a house with minor roof/gutter/siding/fascia damage. For reference, just that point is 0.3 miles from the official PNS start point. I highly doubt that the damage last night where it occurred was anything but tornadic, which also calls into question the end point, particularly how PNS mentioned straight line wind damage east-northeast of end point. Mini supercells are not known for causing straight line wind damage. I wrote a note to the OKX WCM. Hopefully they take a look at adjusting at least the start point. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread

    Certainly wouldn't rule out slight risk verifying for elevated hailers with strong effective shear and sufficient mucape but my perception is that it's fairly rare to get a slight risk worthy elevated hailer event around here. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

    April 2018 General Discussion

    Based off very low growing degree days thus far, we were going to have headlines starting as of April 30th and onward. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

    April 2018 General Discussion

    ORD tied record low of 31 (1958, 2008) and set new record for lows of 32 or lower in month of April with 16 days. RFD tied record low of 27 from 1958 and will finish with 19 days with lows of 32 or lower, tied for 2nd most on record for April with 1918. Record is 20 days set in 1907. Based on where monthly average temperature is as of 4/28 and the addition of another below normal day today due to the cold lows, it appears that this month will finish as 4th coldest April on record at ORD and 2nd coldest on record at RFD. It really stands out at ORD, where this will be coldest April since the climate site has been inland. Including 2018, there will only be 5 Aprils in top 20 coldest Aprils for Chicago (2018, 1950, 1983, 1975, 1961) that were observed at MDW or ORD. 1982 will move to 21st coldest April. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

    April 2018 General Discussion

    Just a heads up, the ORD ASOS was moved almost 3 miles south yesterday and new siting and current lack of grass or dirt at the site likely contributed to a significant warm bias for the MinT at ORD this morning. As a quick simple fix for today, it was changed from 36 to 31 (avg of low of 29 at PWK and 33 at MDW) , but it's something we're gonna have to watch closely moving forward. We're working with the construction company at ORD to expedite dirt and sod being placed around the new ASOS site to help with possible warm bias. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  9. This can't be right, can it? Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

    April 18th-19th Winter Storm

    Liquid equivalent precip as snow from Euro Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

    April 2018 General Discussion

    Very impressive. In addition, only the 1961 (MDW) reading was not near the lake. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

    April 5-7 One-Two Punch Snow Systems

    Such a tough forecast with this. Put me in the camp of thinking RAP/HRRR temps during modeled mod/heavy precip are staying too warm with the well mixed boundary layer but also can't 100% discount it with southerly flow and warm advection. Kept accums minimal at best during the day because of uncertainty with how it all plays out, with most of the minor accums during the evening. FWIW, WPC internal collab graphic went with a swath of 2-4" in southern half of Chicago metro into NW IN and lower MI. The large run to run changes in the HRRR are not surprising because of the changes in exact placement of fgen banding and maintenance/intensity/longetivity run to run that dictate the precip band placement. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

    Apr. 2-4 Severe Threat

    Some interesting top CIPS analogs based off 00z NAM, #1 is 4/19/11, #2 was an active day on 4/4/03 and #6 is 3/2/12. A few other pretty big days mixed in among the top 15 as well. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

    April 2018 General Discussion

    MQB and ILX and Avon COOP got down to -1. Those of us at ILX, DVN, and LOT on the overnight shift were trying to figure out what the IL state record low for month of April is. Best we could discover was -2, at Mount Carroll on 4/6/1982 & Kewanee 1 E, on 4/7/1982. From everything I could find, these readings of -1 were the coldest temperatures in April in IL since the likely April state record lows were set in 1982. Extremely impressive. As a side note, the IL state climatologist page was down, and had to use Google and NowData to figure out the info. Does anyone know of any other sites that have state record temperatures by month? Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

    Apr. 2-4 Severe Threat

    I have the same concern about how far north the warm front gets, though it appears a pretty safe bet at least southern/southeastern 1/3 to 1/2 of CWA will spend some time in the warm sector. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk