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    Naperville, IL

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    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Since Broyles did the 01z update this evening, it'll be him. He also did the previous 06z Day 1 outlook. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  2. Pretty heavy rate of fall here in southeast Naperville. Had a brief period of very large flakes that since dropped a bit. Grass and mulch have whitened up a bit and slush on tabletops and some car tops. Melting on contact on paved surfaces thus far. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  3. Most interesting somewhat comparable time period I could find when putting together stats for the office was late April 1910. There were 5 consecutive days with measurable snow from the 22nd to the 26th including 2 days with 2"+. Then 2 days after the streak ended, April 28th had a high of 76, followed by a high of 86 on the 29th. In addition, prior to that latest on record stretch of 5 consecutive days of measurable snow, there was a high of 80+ earlier that season, on March 27th (81 deg). Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    April 14-15 Snow Potential

    I have not posted in a while, especially since going back to work in early March after paternity leave for birth of my 2nd child, but I've been lurking. Worked leading up to the event and saw that a few of my AFDs were pasted here. Several posters criticized my office's (LOT) handling of the event, and admittedly, when amounts are that much higher than we were forecasting, some criticism is warranted. Wanted to make a few points from my perspective as an explanation but certainly not an excuse for what wasn't a good forecast. Apologies if this is a bit meandering and a lot long. We were well aware of the models that showed the heavier amounts; climo and time of day definitely played a role in not really fully buying into the extreme amounts. At the same time we were also well aware of the potential ingredients it had going for it toward producing heavy snowfall rates, many of which I included in my AFDs so I won't list them here. I saw the points made about snowfall rates and run angle w.r.t. road impacts and the point is well taken that extreme rates can and will overcome the hostile sun angle this time of year. On the day before the event, I wasn't doubting that there would be heavy snow, mentioned it and the TSSN potential. The main questions in my mind were exactly how heavy it would be, how long/persistent the heavy rates would last and how narrow the area affected by heavier rates would be. These are important because I think the sun angle is still part of the equation. Once the rates eased on Sunday, the accums basically stopped until toward and after sunset, which showed the how important it was to get that very persistent death band with 30-45+ dbz echoes to get the sig accums, accums on roads and magnitude of travel impacts that occurred. Ultimately I think it's hard to fully buy into the idea that we could be staring at a historic event, despite there being support from the Euro/NAM12, SREF and RAP/HRRR, when the bulk of the snow qpf would occur during daylight hours. I believe it's a natural thing for a forecaster to gravitate toward the idea that some failure modes would help keep things relatively in check, given how rare heavy snow events are at our latitude in mid April. This appeared to be the case not just at my office but also at surrounding offices in the lead up to the event. I do believe that if the heaviest rates were forecast to be at night, we would've been more bullish with our amounts. I personally am leery of events that are very dependent upon dynamic cooling, an issue any time of year but especially in April because so much needs to go right. One of my most memorable busted forecasts was Christmas Eve 2014, a relatively similar setup modeled to what occurred on Sunday. I had made mention in one of my AFDs of the potential for widespread intense warm sector convection to *possibly* mess with cold sector dynamics, with that 2014 event in mind, something that obviously didn't come to pass this time. With all of the above being said, I definitely was quite concerned for the potential for heavy snow rates Sunday AM-early PM, and hit my Saturday afternoon AFD and graphic much harder than the Friday PM ones and had a pretty good idea of what would end up being the hardest hit swath. In hindsight, I wish I issued a WWA instead of only a SPS with that Sat. PM forecast package considering what played out even though my amounts would've been too low. I was open to the idea, but DVN/MKX/ILX were not leaning that way, so ultimately felt I was lacking confidence to do one. I can't speak for the other forecasters at my office that worked the event, but I can assure you we all worked hard like we always do, but end result wasn't good. As to the slower response to issuing the headline on Sunday, I'd like to say I'd have been a bit quicker to do so given radar and report trends and that DVN and ILX had issued, and that it is a valid point of criticism. However, it's never an easy thing to be in the driver's seat at a NWS WFO with those decisions to be made. From asking someone who was there, I think it came down to exactly how persistent that extremely intense would be and how roads would respond, and how widespread impacts would get and wait more for trends to unfold. How it exactly transpired made it seem like we were ignoring the obvious but again I can assure everyone that it's not something that was taken lightly. We will certainly have this as important case to learn from moving forward, and I know I'll never forget it. Sorry again for this being long, but if you have any other questions, I'd be happy to at least attempt to answer.

    March 2019 Discussion

    Obviously tons of spread on that weekend system. 12z Euro ensemble leaned toward warmer OP a bit. FWIW Euro op did bring the Thursday night-Friday snows north vs previous few runs but still a miss locally. Also FWIW, GEFS mean for the first round in northern IL/northwest IN is about 2-4", a few members with decent hits locally or close by. Best that can be said at this point is that there will probably be a decent system in the region (could be a miss locally) Thursday-Friday with a stronger system over the weekend a good bet to bring precip here but everything else TBD. Hope for the best so that this cold start to the month doesn't go to waste and then hopefully onto a more spring like pattern. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  6. I'm sorry to keep harping on it, but the map posted on the main Feb thread shows your standards are pretty high. 125-150% of normal snowfall since January 1st is objectively not terrible. December 1st to early January objectively was terrible. Of course it's been better north and west of us this month and we've missed some fun. But it's been very active since mid January and we had a very good stretch of snow from the January 12th system through Feb 1 and close to normal snow this month. Plus one of the most significant ice storms downtown in years (decades?) on Feb 12th.

    February 23-25th Winter Storm

    I have my eye on Tuesday-Tuesday night for fronto snow. GFS has been consistently more north, favoring WI, but 12z GEM was nice for northern IL. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    February 23-25th Winter Storm

    18z NAMs came in way south/east, with surface low tracking over Chicago area. 3km is even farther south than 12km. Both show a rain/thunder to heavy snow and wind scenario for northern Illinois. Only run that's shown this so we'll see if it's a one off. Would certainly fit the idea of the low coming in farther south. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  9. Pretty sure you're overstating futility there. Midway 3SW had 39.1" last year (more than ORD's 36.1) and will finish above normal for this season too with 38.3" so far, vs. 41.2" at ORD. Even if you're lower than MDW 3SW, I'd bet you're over 30" for this season, which is still near normal to date. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    February 23-25th Winter Storm

    Comment I made wasn't about expecting more of a snow threat anywhere in CWA on the front end of the system, need very significant changes for that to happen. Wouldn't be surprised if it verifies weaker on approach and thus tracks more overhead before strengthening vs. cutting to our west. A majority of 00z European ensemble members had the low tracking over northern Illinois. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    February 23-25th Winter Storm

    Wouldn't be too surprised if it bumped more southeast, seems like a majority of the decent surface lows this winter have ended up southeast of the medium range operational model consensus. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    February 17th, 2019 Snow Event

    Up to 41" on the season. With the pattern looking cold and active to close out the month and into March, a good chance to get to 50+ at ORD. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    February 17th, 2019 Snow Event

    ILX advisory for their northeastern counties is for inclusion of freezing drizzle on top of snow accums up to 2". Without that, they probably wouldn't have issued. If freezing drizzle looks more likely to occur down in southern LOT CWA, we may need to expand the advisory and perhaps include the Chicago metro counties not in headline for map purposes. Agree that a long duration 2-3/2-4" snowfall on a Sunday otherwise probably doesn't need one. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    February 17th, 2019 Snow Event

    I believe the NAM12 is suffering from unrealistic dry air issues that cause that splotchiness to the output. Have seen this issue several times the past few winters. Best way to compare is how you did with the simulated reflectivity vs the QPF/snow output. Other models look much more realistic as you said, including RAP/HRRR. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    February 17th, 2019 Snow Event

    Looks like it's playing catchup. 12z run bumped up from 06z run pretty significantly. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk