RCNYILWX

Meteorologist
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About RCNYILWX

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    Ricky
  • Birthday 05/27/1984

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  • Location:
    Naperville, IL

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  1. We fixed it on Monday. Prior to that, it had been running noticeably warm even at night vs ORD and MDW. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  2. The recorded length of the less than 1/2" precip streak at ORD may have been a bit misleading. Certainly possible one of Jan 30th or Jan 31st had 0.5" liquid equivalent. MDW 3sw COOP had 0.52" on 1/30 and 0.50" on 1/31. Then ORD just missed the higher totals and liquid amounts to its east in Feb. Still an impressively long dry/quiet stretch. We did correct the April CF6 to remove the erroneous TS occurrence on April 5th. Unsure why, but lightning distant in a few of the obs that day at ORD triggered the climate program to call it an on station TS occurrence. Based strictly off the Chicago obs we have, it shattered record for latest into year of a TS occurrence, with previous latest being May 3rd. I'm a bit leery of putting too much stock in it as a record because especially going back to when the official site was not an airport, we don't know what counted as a TS. Is it possible that lightning out over the open waters of the lake counted as a TS? Also even with airport observers, prior to modern remote sensing of lightning and ASOS in the mid 1990s, was there subjectivity in what counted as a TS observation? What we can safely say is that this year by far had the latest first TS at ORD in the ASOS era.
  3. What's become clear is that the outdoor mask mandates were never needed, and likely relied on faulty guidance to justify them. At this point, most adults who wanted to be vaccinated have gotten at least their first dose and a majority of those who haven't probably are hesitant or are straight up anti-vaxxers. The CDC's new guidance finally recognized that we should no longer be tailoring society to protect people who largely don't want to be, or the hypercautious. Particularly outdoors, the vaccinated have essentially zero risk and the unvaccinated have extremely low risk, especially in the warmer months. I doubt many are going to continue to heed outdoor mask mandates and they're not usually enforceable anyway. Indoors will probably be a different story. There may be increased instances of people refusing to wear masks in stores, but I suspect for a while longer that most people will see it as a minor inconvenience not worth causing a fuss over. The indoor mask ordinances do need to be rolled back sooner rather than later though.
  4. You never know with these intense f-gen bands. I think if it snows heavy enough for long enough, a couple sloppy inches on colder surfaces certainly possible. The most likely outcome probably still is mostly white rain aside from a sloppy coating here and there (similar to what 3km NAM has been showing), but will be interesting to see what we wake up to. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  5. Revisiting this, for some reason we weren't included on the SPC collaboration call even though a few of our counties were in the MD. We probably would've been fine adding those few counties into the watch had we been included on the collab call. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  6. The good news for this month vs what happened in 2012 is it'll be cool for the next week and pattern overall is forecast to be on the active side into the medium-long range. If this month doesn't come in at or above normal and the ridge starts to build in June, that would become more problematic. The rain we've gotten here in the southwest suburbs over the past week, while not a lot, has helped keep things pretty green. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  7. June has historically been the most active month locally. Hopefully May picks up after next week and June is rocking. If you can go into June having already had an active season, that's a bonus. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  8. I'll always regret not issuing an advisory on the day shift the afternoon before 4/14/19. Was strongly considering it, but with no buy in from the neighboring offices, opted against it. That was definitely a special case, as it turned out basically every box checked for heavy snow rates and overcoming the warm ground and high sun angle. I see it as a good mental check now when there's a possible solid late season snow event, knowing what went into that event helps the forecast at a challenging time of year to forecast snowfall. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  9. Maybe for the southeast part of the CWA? The other aspect that's part of the headline decision in marginal situations is time of day. It's now after midnight down there, which means much less vehicles on the roads. With no impacts to this evening's commute and snow ending well before the morning commute, can't really justify putting an advisory out for that long. The potential for slick spots can certainly be messaged by various means, such as a Special Weather Statement, graphics, social media posts, retweeting INDOT, etc, without putting an advisory out.
  10. If there were noteworthy road impacts, the case would be more defensible. Any snow higher than a trace today would technically be historic, no? The record for the date was T so if it merely set the new record at 0.1", that warrants an advisory? From the IND Evening Update AFD: "Road impacts appear to be minimal at this time, with the majority of the accumulations occurring on grassy areas." There's really no need for further debate on it, with no real travel impacts, advisories are typically not issued. Certainly some gray area and the product has been more commonly issued for sub-advisory criteria impact-based reasons in recent years, but this event doesn't hit that bar in the Indy area, regardless of the historic nature of the snowfall.
  11. Liking the upstream satellite and radar trends across South Dakota w.r.t. tomorrow locally. Several CG strikes and GLM flashes, and Aberdeen, SD was reporting 1/4SM +SN a couple hours ago.
  12. Really solid f-gen band, snowed hard enough here at LOT that we've been down around 1/2sm visibility and gotten a few tenths on the grass and car tops. Just wet roads and parking lot, though part of the sidewalk outside has a minor dusting. The meso models (aside from the RGEM) and the Euro certainly did best with band placement. Main issue will be that the band is too transient to support any legit accums and impacts. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  13. We definitely got NAMmed by this event, and also the ECMWF being more bullish for several runs didn't help. I was never too excited about the heart of the metro and points west and northwest. But I was overly optimistic for the southeast 1/3 or so of the CWA while the NAM still had global guidance support from the Euro. I suppose some surprises are possible if rates end up heavier along the lines of some of the meso models. Failing that though, Wednesday now appears to have a higher chance of interesting weather. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  14. Agree, shades of April 2, 2016. The NAMnest is modeling 45-50 dBZ cores on Wednesday, owing to those near dry adiabatic 0-3km lapse rates. One lacking aspect on Wednesday is the weaker wind fields, whereas April 2, 2016 had 45-60 mph wind gusts. Could envision 30-40 mph gusts on Wednesday in squalls. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  15. I'm skeptical of how much falls during the day Tuesday if rates aren't heavy. And a majority of the guidance has the heavier snow toward and after sunset Tuesday evening mostly east of the CWA. I was thinking back to Feb 24 2016 when the northwest fringe just outside the heavy snow band that nailed the south burbs into northwest Indiana was essentially white rain despite coming down at a good clip at times. And that was in late February.