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    Naperville, IL
  1. January 20-22nd Winter Storm

    18z NAM has that snow over northern IL but lighter than previous runs. This is the sort of thing that as you mentioned it's showed up on multiple model runs, so it's probably gonna happen somewhere. With it being on the mesoscale driven by low level f-gen, expect changes in placement because the models are decent this far out in showing a signal like that but wouldn't expect location to be locked in. A possibly somewhat similar scenario earlier this winter was back in mid December when a band of snow gradually sinking south produced 1-5" across parts of northern IL. The NAM had been hinting at a decent snow band for several runs, but then the 00z run the night before had it across central and southern WI. MKX ended up issuing a WWA and of course the snow occurred mainly in the DVN and LOT CWAs.
  2. January 20-22nd Winter Storm

    My guess is the models are responding to the AO being fairly deeply negative, about -2SD coming up to about -1.5SD on Monday. NAO is also forecast to be weakly negative coming up to neutral through the approach of the system. With height field compression from the blocking to the north, the system can only go so far north. Should the shifts continue, would improve prospects in eastern IA, northern IL and southern WI for more appreciable snow on the back side of the system later Monday and Monday night into Tuesday. As is, the 00z Euro run verbatim has a swath of about 1-4" of snow across parts of northern IL and southern WI Monday night into Tuesday. We'd need the south shift to be much more substantial to avoid rain on the front side of the system. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  3. January 14-15th Clipper System

    SN here in southeast Naperville. Very nice dendrites. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  4. January 14-15th Clipper System

    I last worked Thursday, so haven't been a part of the leadup to the event for the most part. It's basically a shift partner decision to coordinate and issue headlines, so these are just my own thoughts. I'll be back in the office tomorrow. Interested to see how things are playing out. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  5. January 14-15th Clipper System

    I felt like there was enough support to pull the trigger with the overnight issuance but yep, 12z runs should have removed any lingering doubt. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  6. January 14-15th Clipper System

    All the evidence I've seen suggests a range of 3-6" for the LOT CWA. Perhaps to play it conservative I'd go 2" for low end of range, which would most likely be in southern CWA. The wildcard potential is for 6"+ amounts due to lake effect/lake enhancement. The soundings are not perfect but good lift is definitely more favorably co-located in the DGZ for longer than on yesterday's 12z guidance. For that reason, I'd go with an average 15:1 ratio. So using a range of conservatively 0.15 qpf in south and southwest to 0.4 near the lake gives a range of about 2-6".
  7. Winter 2017-18 Medium/Long Range Disco

    Nice big dog on the 00z Euro for January 21-22. There's been a good signal on the ensembles for a system over the region during that time period past few days. Let's see how it goes. It's just nice overall to see a more active look in the longer ranges. I'm with OHweather in thinking that extended torches are unlikely moving forward. Unless there's big changes next few days, it looks like the warm up next weekend is unavoidable, but that already will be a much more compressed stretch of warmth than it was modeled to be less than a week ago. The AK region ridging tendency looks to persist, usually a good sign to preclude major torches and it should be more west based than its been all winter and allow for southeast ridging and western troughing. -AO in the means isn't a bad look either when combined with a -EPO and/or -WPO and -PNA. All in all late January is currently looking to be an active stretch with snow chances but also mixed precip and warm/rain risks from southeast ridge flexing. At this point, given the above, it's possible that central, western and northern portions of the sub will be more favored than eastern and southeastern portions. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  8. January 14-15th Clipper System

    Euro came in with its best run yet and close to the GEM/UKMET which were wettest operational models of the 00z suite. We get into good pivot action, including additional snow coming down from Wisconsin late Monday night into Tuesday AM. I think the ratios are still a bit of a wildcard. Using the 10:1 map from the 00z Euro as an event floor for that run gives a range of roughly 1.5-3.5" for northern Illinois and northwest Indiana. With the good consensus of the 00z guidance, I feel comfortable going 2-5" for the area not including whatever LES occurs. If we can get another tick south with the surface low track, then you start to get into possibility of local amounts to 6" in NE IL as pivot action would be maximized. I'd expect there to be winter weather advisories hoisted by LOT, DVN and MKX due to significant impacts to Monday morning commute as well as blowing snow concerns later in the day Monday. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  9. January 14-15th Clipper System

    Very good runs of the 00z NAMs following positive trends on the rest of the guidance today including another bump wetter/snowier on 21z SREF. Main takeaway on the NAMs was a slower farther south surface low that results in several hour longer duration of snow into later Monday afternoon and also a period of wraparound snow Monday night-early Tuesday before any lake effect Should the rest of the 00z guidance follow suit, will likely be bumping my own call for northern IL and northwest Indiana to 2-4". Haven't looked at soundings yet, but if those look better too, then would think there's a shot for locally up to 5" amounts." Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  10. January 14-15th Clipper System

    I'm hopeful that we can get that 3-6 hour window where ratios may average 15:1 or so based off the soundings I pulled. On the bright side, the 09z SREF bumped wetter/snowier than the 03z run, so we'll see shortly if that translates to positive trends in the operational guidance. I'll probably weigh in on the medium-long range thread later today. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  11. January 14-15th Clipper System

    I continue to think that 1-3" remains a very reasonable call for northern IL and northwest IN for this event. Duration looks decent but flake size will likely be an issue again. Clicking through soundings over northeast IL, from whenever the snow starts in the evening (shouldn't have too much difficulty saturating) through about 08z or 09z, much of the lift is located above the DGZ. From 08z or 09z through or a few hours beyond 12z, there's better co-location of decent but not spectacular lift within the DGZ. For these reasons, I'd lean lower than the Kuchera ratios for an average ratio, but a bit higher than 10:1, somewhere in 12-13:1 range is probably okay. With consensus QPF per the latest guidance roughly in the 0.08 to 0.25 range, that would put us in the ballpark of 1-3". To feel better about coming in with a 2-4" range, we'd want to see better agreement on averaging 0.2"+ qpf for the area and/or a trend toward better co-location of omega within the DGZ for more hours. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  12. 2017-18 LES Season

    Radar looks decent for you at the moment. I think you'll get to 2"+. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  13. January 14-15th Clipper System

    My take on the clipper is that it will snow but the surface low currently being forecast to track over or just north of us limits the ceiling of what we can get vs what the GFS had been showing for several runs until 18z yesterday and 00z last night. Was hoping for a solid 3-5/3-6 type of event but most recent trends make a 1-2/1-3" snowfall more likely for northern IL. The NAM is just getting into range and shows a fairly sharp cutoff to the snow south of I-80. Need the surface low track to not trend much farther north to feel good about locking in 1-3" and to come back south to what GFS had been showing to get into advisory snowfall type range. This doesn't include possibility of lake effect/lake enhancement coming back in on Tuesday. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  14. January 14-15th Clipper System

    GFS north again, minor event on this run for northern IL. Looks good for central and northern WI and MI. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  15. January 14-15th Clipper System

    12z Euro is farther north with surface low compared to GFS, overall not as good of a look for northern Illinois and northwest IN, better for WI. Limits duration for here to Sunday evening-night mainly, whereas path of GFS results in a much longer duration event and better chance for LES to work into NE IL. Still plenty of time for changes for better or for worse. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk