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  1. Also, all trolling aside, the GFS is and has been a disaster for this event. Most runs through at least yesterday had no snow anywhere with round 2 and 3, but yet it's already been a nice event for parts of the western sub. Regardless of what happened over the Chicago area, argument that the GFS would be wrong applied toward it having an unrealistic huge area of >0C at 925 mb, which clearly has been wrong. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  2. Tth bro...EPS >>> SREF Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  3. Yep quoted because figured you were thinking that same thing Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  4. January 2nd 2014 or the event later that month that slammed Cook and then especially northwest Lake County. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  5. 925 mb temp watch: 00z RAOB at OAX (Omaha, NE) Observed: -0.9C GFS: +1C ECMWF: 0C Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  6. For the benefit of the board, a visual of our grand total snowfall forecast tonight-Sat AM snowfall from the LOT dayshift (MTF through 12z Thursday portion and myself the rest of the event). This ended up falling out pretty close to the internal graphics WPC shares with the WFOs for collaboration purposes and I think looks pretty reasonable based on all the available data. We've been breaking the forecast into two separate "events" in graphics and only going with the first part on the probablistic snowfall page. That's because we feel that putting out the grand total snowfall forecast in a public facing graphic on the web and especially social media would make the event seem more impactful than it will likely end up being. Plus, as has been discussed, the net snowfall will end up some percentage lower than this grand total when accounting for melting and compaction. Will post additional thoughts later.
  7. Honestly don't know what's going on at this point, why I said hopefully they do a case study and can attempt to address the issue if it ends up being wrong as seems likely. I wish I could give a better explanation. The divergence crops up on Thursday morning and then it's a strong outlier until Friday night. I think one of the best timestamps to compare is 12z Friday. One of these things is not like the other (00z GFS, 00z NAM, 00Z GGEM, 12Z ECMWF, 00z GEFS ptype as proxy).
  8. 100% agree. I was looking more closely at the various model depictions and the GFS doesn't make much physical sense. Particularly Thursday night into Friday, there's barely any thermal gradient with a developing and strengthening 925 mb low and it keeps doing this run after run. Regardless of ultimately how things turn out, the 00z NAM depiction makes sense as a direct point of comparison. It has the warmer air on the east and southeast side of the low wrapping back into the colder air on the north and northwest side of the low. The GFS has most of the 925 mb low uniformly from 0 to +1C until Friday evening, like it's wrapping that air in and locking it in place. If the GFS ends up wrong as we expect, would hope the modelers at NCEP will investigate what went wrong. Based on WPC's internal collaboration graphics this afternoon, they completely tossed the operational GFS thermal profiles as well. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  9. Agree that better dynamics could be at play later on in the event. Also it's late January and not late March or April, that helps. I was thinking about the daytime vs nighttime issue and even though it's not worry about sun angle season yet, would think with such marginal BL temps, daytime might hurt if rates are too low vs same conditions at night. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  10. If anyone is looking closely at point and click or hourly weather graphs for this event we do have a fair amount of rain and snow mention during the day on Friday because of surface temps being as marginal as they are. Would think that at periods of lower precip rates that we could mix or flip to rain, or falling snow would not accumulate and essentially function as white rain. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  11. Exact details of the setup are certainly still subject to change, especially farther out in time, but I have a hard time believing all the other models and ensembles are wrong on 925 mb temps. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  12. I think we can safely toss the operational GFS 925 mb temps. That doesn't detract from the concern about how marginal the surface temperatures are for accumulation efficiency. Ratios would also be below 10:1 much of the time, so accumulated liquid precip as snow at an average 8:1 ratio might be the way to go. Not sure why the Kuchera map on WxBell has higher snow amounts than 10:1, since Kuchera method is supposed to account for more marginal setups to give lower than 10:1 ratios. The 12z Euro favored time windows for the LOT CWA/Chicago metro would be later Wednesday night into Thursday morning, Thursday night into Friday morning and then later Friday afternoon-Friday night. There would likely be lulls in between these windows. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  13. Looking at ptype progs from individual members, such as on COD, the ensembles are still nothing like the operational. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  14. The GFS stubbornly keeping 925 between 0 and +1C is really what it comes down to. The other models aren't doing that. On the midnight shift last night, the forecasters considered the GFS thermal profiles to be an outlier. That said, the combination of weak and disjointed forcing and marginal BL conditions means that accumulations tomorrow night through much of Thursday night will likely be inefficient (lots of white rain). Would look to Friday and Friday night as the upper low gets closer while slowly deepening and the system develops better deformation precip for a bulk of the snow accumulation, wherever that max axis ends up. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk