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RCNYILWX

Meteorologist
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About RCNYILWX

  • Rank
    Ricky
  • Birthday 05/27/1984

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Naperville, IL
  1. I'm not sure of additional surveying because I'm out of the office, but additional information is still being gathered. There is video that should help with additional determinations, as well as possibly more surveying.
  2. Agreed on today, the low clouds and lingering effects really threw a wrench into things for Chicago. 67 is highest it's been and current temp on 1 minute data at ORD. Could still tie or break the record next hour. The wildcard Friday is the warm front position, with 12z runs of the global models shifting southward. 12z Euro gets the warm front to MDW but keeps it south of ORD.
  3. Per most recent ORD aircraft ascent sounding (1946z), it's trying and mixing deeper than just an hour ago but there's still a sharp inversion between just above 910mb and just under 900 mb. +11.1 at 908mb and +13.6 at 903mb. With the limited time left, looks like ORD won't be able to tap into that warmest layer.
  4. Yep, it should be off to the races once any morning muck clears. Fog may not be a total deal breaker either. Checked the hourly obs from MDW from 2/27/76 and there was a very impressive temperature climb after 10am when it was only 54°. That day appeared to be aided as well by very strong low level advection with southwest winds gusting to 35-40 mph.
  5. Starting to get concerned for fog potential tonight in northern IL and for at least some impact on temperatures tomorrow with respect to tying or breaking records, especially Chicago's all time February record. If dense fog forms with a very low stratus deck, would likely make it tougher. Recent runs of the HRRR have been showing dense fog lingering through 14-15z before dissipating. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  6. ORD did officially hit 70 today, so unless something strange happens, should be 3 definite 70+ in this stretch there including Wednesday, with tomorrow and Friday possibilities.
  7. Yesterday came in at 69 officially and today the 5 minute obs have been rounding to 70 but the last 2 official hourly obs have shown 69. So if the next hourly ob doesn't show 70 we'll have to wait until the 4:30pm CLI to see if there was an intra hour 70. Today will determine of we bag 2 or 3 70+ in this stretch with Wednesday looking like a lock.
  8. Up to 70 now http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KORD
  9. Just wanted to stop by here to post this: Chicago O'Hare is up to 68 degrees as of 1pm CST. Yesterday reached 67 degrees. Both daily record highs have been shattered. According to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley moderator Hoosier, Chicago had not had back to back 65°+ days in February until today. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  10. I think tomorrow, Saturday and Monday are pretty safe bets to tag 60. Sunday is a wild card due to weak synoptic flow with sfc high overhead, could yield an early lake breeze onset, though a late enough passage would make 60 certainly doable. The 50+ streak will depend on how that low out west evolves late week with respect to wind direction. Some of the models are showing pretty stout onshore synoptic flow late work week, which could keep highs in 40s even with air mass aloft still very warm. We look good for at least 6 days.
  11. The terms forecast builder and superblend are the methodology used to populate the forecast in periods 3 and onward by nws offices in the central region. So on a day shift, tomorrow night and onward through day 7, T, Max T, Min T, Td, sky cover, PoP, winds, wind gusts and QPF populate with a blend of models including some bias corrected versions and some contribution from the previous forecast. That's superblend. It's meant to give us a common starting point that is theoretically easier to collaborate changes to/add value when necessary and also results in less NDFD discrepancy. Forecast Builder is the GUI used to derive the weather grids and snow/ice accums using several tools and probability of type top down precipitation type methodology for winter precip. It's unfortunate those terms were used in an AFD because our users have no clue what Superblend and Forecast Builder are.
  12. Assuming saturation occurs in the areas not in the advisory, especially in the Chicago metro, then there's gonna be some frozen precip and IMO we should have an advisory out. Ice on roads is different than snow amounts to designate advisory counties. All it takes is a light glaze on roads to cause a significant travel hazard.
  13. Also the regular EPS, GEFS and GEPS have all been very consistent in depicting the flip back to a colder pattern the last week of January the past several days. The pattern change they're showing is also supported by the progged MJO phases. Hopefully this flip has staying power and it's accompanied by opportunities for snow though.
  14. Also the run of the mill 570 dm 500 mb heights over southern Hudson Bay. Pretty typical for mid-late January [emoji6]
  15. Just curious, how much north of I-80 in IL?