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    March 2019 Discussion

    Obviously tons of spread on that weekend system. 12z Euro ensemble leaned toward warmer OP a bit. FWIW Euro op did bring the Thursday night-Friday snows north vs previous few runs but still a miss locally. Also FWIW, GEFS mean for the first round in northern IL/northwest IN is about 2-4", a few members with decent hits locally or close by. Best that can be said at this point is that there will probably be a decent system in the region (could be a miss locally) Thursday-Friday with a stronger system over the weekend a good bet to bring precip here but everything else TBD. Hope for the best so that this cold start to the month doesn't go to waste and then hopefully onto a more spring like pattern. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  2. I'm sorry to keep harping on it, but the map posted on the main Feb thread shows your standards are pretty high. 125-150% of normal snowfall since January 1st is objectively not terrible. December 1st to early January objectively was terrible. Of course it's been better north and west of us this month and we've missed some fun. But it's been very active since mid January and we had a very good stretch of snow from the January 12th system through Feb 1 and close to normal snow this month. Plus one of the most significant ice storms downtown in years (decades?) on Feb 12th.

    February 23-25th Winter Storm

    I have my eye on Tuesday-Tuesday night for fronto snow. GFS has been consistently more north, favoring WI, but 12z GEM was nice for northern IL. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    February 23-25th Winter Storm

    18z NAMs came in way south/east, with surface low tracking over Chicago area. 3km is even farther south than 12km. Both show a rain/thunder to heavy snow and wind scenario for northern Illinois. Only run that's shown this so we'll see if it's a one off. Would certainly fit the idea of the low coming in farther south. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  5. Pretty sure you're overstating futility there. Midway 3SW had 39.1" last year (more than ORD's 36.1) and will finish above normal for this season too with 38.3" so far, vs. 41.2" at ORD. Even if you're lower than MDW 3SW, I'd bet you're over 30" for this season, which is still near normal to date. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    February 23-25th Winter Storm

    Comment I made wasn't about expecting more of a snow threat anywhere in CWA on the front end of the system, need very significant changes for that to happen. Wouldn't be surprised if it verifies weaker on approach and thus tracks more overhead before strengthening vs. cutting to our west. A majority of 00z European ensemble members had the low tracking over northern Illinois. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    February 23-25th Winter Storm

    Wouldn't be too surprised if it bumped more southeast, seems like a majority of the decent surface lows this winter have ended up southeast of the medium range operational model consensus. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    February 17th, 2019 Snow Event

    Up to 41" on the season. With the pattern looking cold and active to close out the month and into March, a good chance to get to 50+ at ORD. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    February 17th, 2019 Snow Event

    ILX advisory for their northeastern counties is for inclusion of freezing drizzle on top of snow accums up to 2". Without that, they probably wouldn't have issued. If freezing drizzle looks more likely to occur down in southern LOT CWA, we may need to expand the advisory and perhaps include the Chicago metro counties not in headline for map purposes. Agree that a long duration 2-3/2-4" snowfall on a Sunday otherwise probably doesn't need one. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    February 17th, 2019 Snow Event

    I believe the NAM12 is suffering from unrealistic dry air issues that cause that splotchiness to the output. Have seen this issue several times the past few winters. Best way to compare is how you did with the simulated reflectivity vs the QPF/snow output. Other models look much more realistic as you said, including RAP/HRRR. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    February 17th, 2019 Snow Event

    Looks like it's playing catchup. 12z run bumped up from 06z run pretty significantly. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    February 17th, 2019 Snow Event

    I'm in same boat as you. Pass on nonsense of last March-April unless we get a big dog locally. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    February 17th, 2019 Snow Event

    Models have come into good agreement on a long duration 2-4" event for much of northern IL, with possibility of some minor additional LES accums late Sunday night into Monday morning. Looks good for 3-6" in eastern IA/QCA. Hopefully as cyclone mentioned the long duration can help this to be an overperformer. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    February 17th, 2019 Snow Event

    Nice improvement by the NAM tonight, especially in eastern IA/QCA. Would be cool if the blind GFS/FV3 squirrel finally found a nut. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    Winter Storm - February 11-13, 2019

    Very good assessment. I think a big challenge in these situations other than making the assumption that the warm nose push will be at least as aggressive as the most aggressive model (NAM) is that we don't have any real time analysis of the warm layer. Aircraft soundings help but they're essentially point based so you can't track the trends and most of the soundings are from the larger airports. When the RAP/HRRR is underdoing the northward push and magnitude of the warm layer, it's a big hindrance. That's because the closest we have to real time analysis is the SPC mesoanalysis using the RAP as a background field, so it can definitely throw off even the best forecasters, and played a role in the lack of a lead time to warnings. As to the point about the southern CWA counties, the points you made are very fair. Being off duty for the event and an outside observer but certainly watching things closely, I think the signs were there that temps would mostly be AOB freezing for much longer than expected. Just by tracking the surface wet bulb zero line on mesoanalysis, it wasn't budging and didn't make any northward movement until the late evening. That would also play a role in reaching the warning criteria ice accums farther north. With the surface low well south and east-northeast winds locking in temps mostly 32 or less and pulling from dews in the low-mid 20s over southern lower MI and northeast IN, that argued for multiple hours of flatlining temps. In addition, the sensitivity of even a glaze of ice accums w.r.t. road conditions is something that most of the time we err on the side of caution for and issue an advisory. Certainly a very tough forecast and often times we do perform internal assessments about what went well and what could've been done better in cases like these. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk