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RCNYILWX

Meteorologist
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About RCNYILWX

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    Ricky
  • Birthday 05/27/1984

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    Male
  • Location:
    Naperville, IL

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  1. RCNYILWX

    2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread

    Certainly wouldn't rule out slight risk verifying for elevated hailers with strong effective shear and sufficient mucape but my perception is that it's fairly rare to get a slight risk worthy elevated hailer event around here. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  2. RCNYILWX

    April 2018 General Discussion

    Based off very low growing degree days thus far, we were going to have headlines starting as of April 30th and onward. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  3. RCNYILWX

    April 2018 General Discussion

    ORD tied record low of 31 (1958, 2008) and set new record for lows of 32 or lower in month of April with 16 days. RFD tied record low of 27 from 1958 and will finish with 19 days with lows of 32 or lower, tied for 2nd most on record for April with 1918. Record is 20 days set in 1907. Based on where monthly average temperature is as of 4/28 and the addition of another below normal day today due to the cold lows, it appears that this month will finish as 4th coldest April on record at ORD and 2nd coldest on record at RFD. It really stands out at ORD, where this will be coldest April since the climate site has been inland. Including 2018, there will only be 5 Aprils in top 20 coldest Aprils for Chicago (2018, 1950, 1983, 1975, 1961) that were observed at MDW or ORD. 1982 will move to 21st coldest April. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  4. RCNYILWX

    April 2018 General Discussion

    Just a heads up, the ORD ASOS was moved almost 3 miles south yesterday and new siting and current lack of grass or dirt at the site likely contributed to a significant warm bias for the MinT at ORD this morning. As a quick simple fix for today, it was changed from 36 to 31 (avg of low of 29 at PWK and 33 at MDW) , but it's something we're gonna have to watch closely moving forward. We're working with the construction company at ORD to expedite dirt and sod being placed around the new ASOS site to help with possible warm bias. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  5. This can't be right, can it? Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  6. RCNYILWX

    April 18th-19th Winter Storm

    Liquid equivalent precip as snow from Euro Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  7. RCNYILWX

    April 2018 General Discussion

    Very impressive. In addition, only the 1961 (MDW) reading was not near the lake. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  8. RCNYILWX

    April 5-7 One-Two Punch Snow Systems

    Such a tough forecast with this. Put me in the camp of thinking RAP/HRRR temps during modeled mod/heavy precip are staying too warm with the well mixed boundary layer but also can't 100% discount it with southerly flow and warm advection. Kept accums minimal at best during the day because of uncertainty with how it all plays out, with most of the minor accums during the evening. FWIW, WPC internal collab graphic went with a swath of 2-4" in southern half of Chicago metro into NW IN and lower MI. The large run to run changes in the HRRR are not surprising because of the changes in exact placement of fgen banding and maintenance/intensity/longetivity run to run that dictate the precip band placement. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  9. RCNYILWX

    Apr. 2-4 Severe Threat

    Some interesting top CIPS analogs based off 00z NAM, #1 is 4/19/11, #2 was an active day on 4/4/03 and #6 is 3/2/12. A few other pretty big days mixed in among the top 15 as well. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  10. RCNYILWX

    April 2018 General Discussion

    MQB and ILX and Avon COOP got down to -1. Those of us at ILX, DVN, and LOT on the overnight shift were trying to figure out what the IL state record low for month of April is. Best we could discover was -2, at Mount Carroll on 4/6/1982 & Kewanee 1 E, on 4/7/1982. From everything I could find, these readings of -1 were the coldest temperatures in April in IL since the likely April state record lows were set in 1982. Extremely impressive. As a side note, the IL state climatologist page was down, and had to use Google and NowData to figure out the info. Does anyone know of any other sites that have state record temperatures by month? Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  11. RCNYILWX

    Apr. 2-4 Severe Threat

    I have the same concern about how far north the warm front gets, though it appears a pretty safe bet at least southern/southeastern 1/3 to 1/2 of CWA will spend some time in the warm sector. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  12. RCNYILWX

    Apr. 2-4 Severe Threat

    Completely agree with your thoughts, including on favoring slower Euro. While Broyles may have referenced the GFS soundings in his typical outlook writeup approach, the actual outlook makes it appear likely he heavily based it off the NAM. I sent out a internal collaboration chat to neighboring offices referencing the spurious snow cover messing up the NAM solution and included SPC on it and did get a reply from SPC thanking me for that info on the NAM. Wish I had provided more direct input for the outlook, would've suggested a marginal into the LOT CWA for starters with the day 3. With a strong surface low tracking overhead and sufficient instability for at least some thunder threat across most or all of northern IL, not even having general thunder northwest of I-55 is questionable at best.
  13. RCNYILWX

    Apr. 2-4 Severe Threat

    Yeah it's a major problem with that model. At least we know the source of the error and that it should be discounted until it realizes there's won't be any snow on the ground in that area on Tuesday. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  14. RCNYILWX

    Apr. 2-4 Severe Threat

    Definitely a rather interesting scenario on Tuesday. Globals are not in lock step on surface low placement, but good agreement on a strong 992-995 mb surface low with upper 50s-low 60s dews in warm sector. Just pattern wise that supports a severe risk in the region, but as others have written it remains to be seen if/what extent of tornado risk there is. Favor the ECMWF and probably even GEM thermals over the GFS. Not putting too much/any stock in NAM depiction. It has a much messier surface low and thermal and moisture profiles reek of being compromised by snow cover put down tomorrow in parts of region that the model thinks will survive temps well into the 40s if not 50 on Monday. It's possible even that the surface pressure depiction is messed up by the thermal and moisture fields being contaminated. Edit: image added from AWIPS of model snow depth on 00z 12km NAM valid 18z Tuesday. That's all you need to see to know that the model is out to lunch and hopelessly compromised for Tuesday's system. When the model can't properly resolve the warm sector because it has phantom snow cover in the warm sector, you can't trust the rest of its solution when trying to assess severe potential.
  15. RCNYILWX

    March 23-24 Winter Storm

    Definitely jealous but at the same time happy for everyone getting in on this event. The early day visible satellite on Sunday should be something else. Will be somewhat depressing for those of us northeast of the gradient. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
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