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    Naperville, IL
  1. Spring 2018 Banter and Complaint Office

    This can't be right, can it? Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  2. April 18th-19th Winter Storm

    Liquid equivalent precip as snow from Euro Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  3. April 2018 General Discussion

    Very impressive. In addition, only the 1961 (MDW) reading was not near the lake. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  4. April 5-7 One-Two Punch Snow Systems

    Such a tough forecast with this. Put me in the camp of thinking RAP/HRRR temps during modeled mod/heavy precip are staying too warm with the well mixed boundary layer but also can't 100% discount it with southerly flow and warm advection. Kept accums minimal at best during the day because of uncertainty with how it all plays out, with most of the minor accums during the evening. FWIW, WPC internal collab graphic went with a swath of 2-4" in southern half of Chicago metro into NW IN and lower MI. The large run to run changes in the HRRR are not surprising because of the changes in exact placement of fgen banding and maintenance/intensity/longetivity run to run that dictate the precip band placement. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  5. Apr. 2-4 Severe Threat

    Some interesting top CIPS analogs based off 00z NAM, #1 is 4/19/11, #2 was an active day on 4/4/03 and #6 is 3/2/12. A few other pretty big days mixed in among the top 15 as well. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  6. April 2018 General Discussion

    MQB and ILX and Avon COOP got down to -1. Those of us at ILX, DVN, and LOT on the overnight shift were trying to figure out what the IL state record low for month of April is. Best we could discover was -2, at Mount Carroll on 4/6/1982 & Kewanee 1 E, on 4/7/1982. From everything I could find, these readings of -1 were the coldest temperatures in April in IL since the likely April state record lows were set in 1982. Extremely impressive. As a side note, the IL state climatologist page was down, and had to use Google and NowData to figure out the info. Does anyone know of any other sites that have state record temperatures by month? Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  7. Apr. 2-4 Severe Threat

    I have the same concern about how far north the warm front gets, though it appears a pretty safe bet at least southern/southeastern 1/3 to 1/2 of CWA will spend some time in the warm sector. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  8. Apr. 2-4 Severe Threat

    Completely agree with your thoughts, including on favoring slower Euro. While Broyles may have referenced the GFS soundings in his typical outlook writeup approach, the actual outlook makes it appear likely he heavily based it off the NAM. I sent out a internal collaboration chat to neighboring offices referencing the spurious snow cover messing up the NAM solution and included SPC on it and did get a reply from SPC thanking me for that info on the NAM. Wish I had provided more direct input for the outlook, would've suggested a marginal into the LOT CWA for starters with the day 3. With a strong surface low tracking overhead and sufficient instability for at least some thunder threat across most or all of northern IL, not even having general thunder northwest of I-55 is questionable at best.
  9. Apr. 2-4 Severe Threat

    Yeah it's a major problem with that model. At least we know the source of the error and that it should be discounted until it realizes there's won't be any snow on the ground in that area on Tuesday. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  10. Apr. 2-4 Severe Threat

    Definitely a rather interesting scenario on Tuesday. Globals are not in lock step on surface low placement, but good agreement on a strong 992-995 mb surface low with upper 50s-low 60s dews in warm sector. Just pattern wise that supports a severe risk in the region, but as others have written it remains to be seen if/what extent of tornado risk there is. Favor the ECMWF and probably even GEM thermals over the GFS. Not putting too much/any stock in NAM depiction. It has a much messier surface low and thermal and moisture profiles reek of being compromised by snow cover put down tomorrow in parts of region that the model thinks will survive temps well into the 40s if not 50 on Monday. It's possible even that the surface pressure depiction is messed up by the thermal and moisture fields being contaminated. Edit: image added from AWIPS of model snow depth on 00z 12km NAM valid 18z Tuesday. That's all you need to see to know that the model is out to lunch and hopelessly compromised for Tuesday's system. When the model can't properly resolve the warm sector because it has phantom snow cover in the warm sector, you can't trust the rest of its solution when trying to assess severe potential.
  11. March 23-24 Winter Storm

    Definitely jealous but at the same time happy for everyone getting in on this event. The early day visible satellite on Sunday should be something else. Will be somewhat depressing for those of us northeast of the gradient. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  12. March 23-24 Winter Storm

    FWIW, the 00z HREF (new SSEO) is farther northeast than globals through 12z Saturday. The HREF is a blend of all the various high res WRFs, including 3km NAMnest. I haven't been tracking how it's performed out here, but have read that it anecdotally performed well for the series of noreasters this month. A possible explanation for high res models being northeast of globals consensus is that convection may be affecting the globals somewhat since they parameterize it and don't explicitly forecast convection. It does look like there will be a fair amount of upright convection closer to the low. Convection can certainly rob moisture at times, but I've also seen it where it results in cutting off precip closer to SLP and/or banding even closer to SLP center. A sharp cutoff on northeast side of snow is a given with this setup, but perhaps the globals, especially the Euro, are overdoing it tonight. If the mass fields are somewhat similar, then the precip shield being farther southwest on globals may only be partially explained by dry air effects. Certainly a very challenging forecast. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  13. March 23-24 Winter Storm

    Nothing else to write about at that moment other than 21z SREF and I got inspired. Of course the 00z RGEM is back way southwest and doesn't even get warning criteria snow into LOT CWA. [emoji38] Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  14. March 23-24 Winter Storm

    18z RGEM did have a substantial shift north from 12z run, probably similar in distance of shift to NAM, but since it was much farther south with 12z run, outcome was not NAM like. Just very impressive in the heavy snow swath, particularly across northeast IA and the QCA. I think the potential is fairly high for a narrow swath of 8"+ amounts with locally 1'+, most favored in northeast IA and western/NW IL. My gut feeling is that here in the west and southwest Chicago burbs north of 80, we have a near miss to the south with probably some minor accums, and little/none in Chicago proper. With that being said, the lingering differences in the operational models and large ensemble spread (especially in SREF) means that uncertainty is still rather high. It can almost be looked at as the individual operational runs fitting within the ensemble spread even including 18z NAMs. If I were to assign arbitrary probs as things stand now, I'd say 60-70% favored consensus swath plays out, 20-30% the axis shifts northeast and we get into solid accums in this part of Chicago area, and 10% or less something like the 18z NAM happens. Hopefully partial sampling of southern wave this evening for 00z suite and full sampling for 12z runs better clears things up. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
  15. March Forecast Discussion

    Pretty tough call on how everything plays out, with multiple competing factors. I'm wondering if temps overperform again tomorrow especially if clouds don't thicken too quick which will play a role in where pavement temps are at prior to precip. Excellent point about the marginal temps affecting accretion rate as well. Many of the raw freezing rain accum outputs from the models seem to be a bit aggressive vs total liquid equivalent qpf and are probably not well accounting for sub-optimal accretion rates. Since we don't forecast pavement temps, it's hard to be super confident, but gut feeling is still that ice accums are mostly limited to elevated/colder surfaces with some exceptions. The city is a wild card but also feel that the steady onshore winds and UHI keeping temps propped up conceptually makes sense. Even if temps do drop to 30-32 or something, would think mild pavement starting point especially there would keep impacts minimal.