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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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25 minutes ago, butterfish55 said:

Looks like qsmegma and pope will be making a return to the board early this week

 

Just now, MaineJayhawk said:

Torch Tiger will double or triple his posting efforts as well

Yeah the post count is going to look like a sine wave most likely if ensemble guidance is any indication. Very little during the snowstorm and then a big spike during the cutter (perhaps two if 1/13 cuts) then back down again as pattern really goes colder with potential snow threats. 
 

We’ll return for verification in a couple weeks. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah the post count is going to look like a sine wave most likely if ensemble guidance is any indication. Very little during the snowstorm and then a big spike during the cutter (perhaps two if 1/13 cuts) then back down again as pattern really goes colder with potential snow threats. 
 

We’ll return for verification in a couple weeks. 

Yeah, I can tell how the models look before looking at them just by seeing who’s posting. If I see Torch Tiger making a bunch of posts about how excited he is for the upcoming pattern, I know it’s about to get really warm with flooding rains. Imo both 1/10 and 1/13 are cooked down here, but NNE could do well.

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From GYX AFD for the 10th:

The system`s cold front/occlusion reaching the coast will likely kick off secondary cyclogenesis there, providing a mechanism to support a CAD in the western Maine mountains and lakes/foothills region southeast of the mountains... at least initially.

Overall I`m expecting this to be a more wintry storm than other strong, dynamic storms experienced this season thus far with some real winners (foot-plus) possible across the mountains in terms of snowfall. But, there still remains potential for heavy rainfall rates which could lead to some hydrological issues...and significant uncertainty as to how the rain/snow line will
develop. It appears as though winds will again be a widespread concern, though perhaps not to the degree (and very likely not to the duration) of Dec 18. This is certainly the storm to track
for widespread, significant impacts during this forecast
period. Stay tuned.
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The only operational run from 00z that actually looks like a reasonably correlation/fit for their ensemble mean is the GGEM.

The operational Euro and GFS are almost completely out of phase with their own ensemble mean.  This is can be pointed out via numerical telecon, or illustrated just observing the 500 mb total hemispheric geo-potential anomalies distribution ... right out through 360 hours.

What all that means is that either the operational runs are wrong.  The ensemble means are wrong.  Or, they both are, and that reality will blend them.  If it is this latter option, how much or how less?   

Basically, very low skill.  Despite the demonstrative and seemingly beady-eyed persistence to drive Lakes cutters ( oper versions) into a -NAO exertion ( ens means), the actual deterministic value there is questionable.

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5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Really? Should be plenty of thump north, no?

Well first one they’ll be some before downpours. Maybe the next one too? Both systems are ugly imo. Hopefully the snow on the front end helps.

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Bummer

It could go either way. Some cutters have been great to get glades and steep terrain open - the heavy wet snow makes for a great base, and up here it’s usually followed by upslope to create a nice layered “heavy bottom fluffy top”. Of course if the rain is heavy or very warm and all the snow gets washed off, it’s no bueno

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4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Looks like GEFS was dead wrong all 3 ensembles agree now on at least a transient pna , decaying monster nao and trough in east Jan 15-20.. maybe our first window for a KU

i mean... this is pretty awesome. the GEFS looking like this now is big. it was the holdout before

500h_anom-mean_na.thumb.png.0b24339474a85e8e179204ed24eaaf09.png

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9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Looks like GEFS was dead wrong all 3 ensembles agree now on at least a transient pna , decaying monster nao and trough in east Jan 15-20.. maybe our first window for a KU

I posted in the NYC forum we knew back on 12/28 that 1/6-7 was favorable before 1/8-1/15 likely sucked, we now know 1/17-18 probably is favorable before 1/22-1/30 likely sucks...maybe they suck less if the MJO is weaker more like the EPS or even HALFWAY to the EPS vs the GEFS but I think for places down in SW CT and back to NJ getting snow from something there is a must or this winter is probably gonna average below normal for sure, won't be easy to even get NYC to 27-30 inches if its 0 as of 1/20 lol

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3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro looks good for elevations

Euro verbatim is probably a net gainer for most anyone north of the New England Mason-Dixon Line (the northern Mass border).

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