December 2023

[WinterWolf]

No moths here lol

[Go Kart Mozart]

This from GaWx on the main board:

 

Wow! The chance for a major, and possibly even an extreme SSW in early Jan is even higher! On Jan 9th, the EPS mean of 101 members shows a mere 14 m/s vs climo way up at 35! There are so many members with a major SSW that it will be tough to count! This appears to be at a whopping 45%+ for a major, easily the highest yet beating yesterdays ~38%. This has ~~30% of the 101 members down to sub -10 m/s, 12 sub -20, 8 sub -25, and 2 sub -30:
 

• carolina dude and yoda
•  2

•  
• Quote

 

Regardless of what ends up happening wxwise this winter, I'm 100% accepting of whatever occurs.

 

[CoastalWx]

We moths 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Ratios are not going to be close to 10:1, but another elevational paste job seems likely for most of NNE. With the CAD bringing paste to lower els in NH/ME.

close here for atleast something

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Ratios are not going to be close to 10:1, but another elevational paste job seems likely for most of NNE. With the CAD bringing paste to lower els in NH/ME.

That would be fun here

[ineedsnow]

hopefully 1z HRRR got a clue 

 

[Sn0waddict]

Pea soup level fog out here tonight.

[powderfreak]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We moths 

00z NAM trying along the beaches.

 

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Pea soup level fog out here tonight.

Yes sir…100 yards and dropping fast.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The early December pattern is not ideal but W of I-495 has a decent shot at shovel snow the next 10 days.  Grinch be damned, I like Christmas week and end of month for snow in much of SNE, right to the coast.

[butterfish55]

My flight to Aruba leaves Logan at 6:30 am 12/24. I expect blizzard conditions at that time

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Ratios are not going to be close to 10:1, but another elevational paste job seems likely for most of NNE. With the CAD bringing paste to lower els in NH/ME.

I really like the look of the Euro/NAM postive snow depth change maps, which of course put it right on the razor's edge of warning for many. 

[dendrite]

30 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

That would be fun here

00z Nammy is snowing here midday tomorrow at 33-34F. Could be a little sloppy the first few hours.

Currently 36.6F with FG

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s a shitty block too far north. This shouldn’t be surprising with a deep trough out west. 

Doesn't look that deep to me and we've had plenty of winter months with strong Atlantic blocking with meh conditions out west that still delivered. PNA reading is positive actually 

Block location isn't bad either. Last December the block was too far south for us. 

[dryslot]

A few of the models hitting the inverted dong right into tues

[HIPPYVALLEY]

13 minutes ago, butterfish55 said:

My flight to Aruba leaves Logan at 6:30 am 12/24. I expect blizzard conditions at that time

We appreciate you taking a hit for the team!

[Chrisrotary12]

19 minutes ago, butterfish55 said:

My flight to Aruba leaves Logan at 6:30 am 12/24. I expect blizzard conditions at that time

You misspelled 55F and raining sideways. #Grinch

[powderfreak]

23 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I really like the look of the Euro/NAM postive snow depth change maps, which of course put it right on the razor's edge of warning for many. 

Your zones SE of the mountains and on the coastal plain can’t be an easy forecast.  Could be a birch flattening 5-8” warning paste job, or 1-2” of slop, with white rain.  I feel like the same is true here in the valley between the ridgelines.

If places get a good quick 0.40-0.75” in 6-hours, with -1C at 925, it should snow even down low.  The longevity of the event also means the highest totals will be higher up, the places that don’t have to rely on rates to accumulate more efficiently.

[butterfish55]

You misspelled 55F and raining sideways. #Grinch

I hope so

[OceanStWx]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Your zones SE of the mountains and on the coastal plain can’t be an easy forecast.  Could be a birch flattening 5-8” warning paste job, or 1-2” of slop, with white rain.  I feel like the same is true here in the valley between the ridgelines.

If places get a good quick 0.40-0.75” in 6-hours, with -1C at 925, it should snow even down low.  The longevity of the event also means the highest totals will be higher up, the places that don’t have to rely on rates to accumulate more efficiently.

Places like CON really show the uncertainty. Bufkit says the NAM snows about 4.5 inches (compacts down to around 3), but for most of that time especially Sunday the snow growth zone isn't saturated. Hard to believe daytime snowfall accumulating in an environment like that.

[weathafella]

5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Like we’ve said time and again.. snows and cold in AK.. it ain’t gonna snow and cold in SNE

That makes no sense.   It always snows in AK.  Normal high for Fairbanks today is 11.  15 above can yield a nice snowstorm.

[WinterWolf]

47 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That makes no sense.   It always snows in AK.  Normal high for Fairbanks today is 11.  15 above can yield a nice snowstorm.

Kev struggling 

[Torch Tiger]

10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats S Wey on shopping flakes 

drunk

[Torch Tiger]

Already 12/3!!!!!!!!!!!!

[CoastalWx]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Doesn't look that deep to me and we've had plenty of winter months with strong Atlantic blocking with meh conditions out west that still delivered. PNA reading is positive actually 

Block location isn't bad either. Last December the block was too far south for us. 

Yeah this is a good PNA look.  

 

[moneypitmike]

First WWA of the season for Pit 2

MEZ025>028-032045-
/O.EXB.KGYX.WW.Y.0026.231204T0000Z-231204T1800Z/
Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-
Including the cities of Rockport, Wiscasset, Hope, Bath, Bremen,
Arrowsic, Thomaston, Boothbay Harbor, Owls Head, Waldoboro,
Bowdoinham, Phippsburg, Rockland, Bowdoin, Alna, Camden, Belfast,
Searsmont, Damariscotta, Dresden, Whitefield, Northport,
Lincolnville, Topsham, Bristol, Newcastle, and Appleton
332 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two
  inches.

* WHERE...Coastal Waldo, Knox, Lincoln, and Sagadahoc Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Light snowfall accumulations are expected as periods of
  snow showers impact the region. Be prepared for variable travel
  conditions and slow down when you approach areas of heavier
  snowfall as road conditions could change rapidly. Even light
  snowfall amounts can accumulate on roads and cause dangerous
  driving conditions due to snow covered roads. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

 

[tamarack]

10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ratios are not going to be close to 10:1, but another elevational paste job seems likely for most of NNE. With the CAD bringing paste to lower els in NH/ME.

Last December's big dump here was 9:1 and came at temps 30-31.  Don't need 10:1 to have fun.  Current forecast for here is 7-12.

[Spanks45]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah this is a good PNA look.  

 

Just a quick glance at the ENS, awful amount of blues around AK and the west coast...Maybe SNE gets lucky over the next couple of weeks, but moving forward oof. I will end up burning less wood in December than I did in November...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Just a quick glance at the ENS, awful amount of blues around AK and the west coast...Maybe SNE gets lucky over the next couple of weeks, but moving forward oof. I will end up burning less wood in December than I did in November...

That has still got to be better than the deep blues buried in Cabo San Lucas to Mammoth Mountain …maybe especially as long as S Hudson Bay has some blues 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Just a quick glance at the ENS, awful amount of blues around AK and the west coast...Maybe SNE gets lucky over the next couple of weeks, but moving forward oof. I will end up burning less wood in December than I did in November...

 

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That has still got to be better than the deep blues buried in Cabo San Lucas to Mammoth Mountain …maybe especially as long as S Hudson Bay has some blues 

Still a Nina hangover look too. Not really seeing Nino driving yet. End of GEFS look like last December lol.