September 2023

[lee59]

10 minutes ago, lee59 said:

This will be the 12th straight day of below normal temperatures at Central Park and probably all other nearby stations but I have not checked.

Looking further it is 12 for 12 for Central Park and Islip and Bridgeport. Newark and Kennedy will be 10 of 12 and LaGuardia (had one day that was even) so 11 of 12.

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of Ophelia, cooler than normal weather will continue through much of the remainder of the month. As a result, September now looks to wind up near normal to somewhat warmer than normal. In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern will likely develop in eastern North America as October begins.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around September 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.55°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -6.30 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.054 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.5° (0.3° above normal).

 

[qg_omega]

Freezing out

[Rjay]

50s

[MJO812]

59

[doncat]

Small diurnal 59/56 split today. 

[wdrag]

On 9/24/2023 at 9:30 AM, wdrag said:

Adding this for a a late week tease by the EPS

Just re-running this post from 9/24. Other than the 00z/27 NAM,  this looks to be correct for what seems like a pretty big event Friday in the NYC subforum, particularly se NYS/CT/LI/coastal NJ with a potential for mdt coastal flooding at the highest of the high tide cycles, as well widespread 1/4-3" of rain with isolated 5'?  00z/27 RDPS has 6". Best axis of max rainfall uncertain but it looks like PA/Catskills least likely for R+... nose of the inverted trough and organizing low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast the culprits. EPS from 18z/26 is even larger than what am showing from last Saturday. 

Also, it still seems to me that we're in general onshore flow here in the NYC subforum, especially NJ/LI through the first week of October, although I could see a day of north or north-northwest. 

 

[SACRUS]

 

9/26 Records

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 90 (2007)
NYC: 91 (1970)
LGA: 90 (2007)


Lows:

 

EWR: 40 (1940)
NYC: 42 (1940)
LGA: 44 (1947)

 

Historical:

 

1936 - Denver, CO, was buried under 21.3 inches of snow, 19.4 inches of which fell in 24 hours. The heavy wet snow snapped trees and wires causing seven million dollars damage. (26th-27th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1936:  A forest fire burned several miles east of the town of Brandon, Oregon. The fire was far enough away that residents were not particularly worried. A sudden shift in the winds drove the flames westward and through town. The fire, caused by summer drought and fueled by the abundant Gorse Weed found in many of the empty spaces between buildings in Bandon, caused so much destruction that only a handful of structures were left standing when the fire finally died down.

1950 - Residents of the northeastern U.S. observed a blue sun and a blue moon, caused by forest fires in British Columbia. (David Ludlum)

1963 - San Diego, CA, reached an all-time record high of 111 degrees. Los Angeles hit 1S09 degrees. (David Ludlum)

1970 - Santa Ana winds brought fires to Los Angeles County, and to points south and east. Half a million acres were consumed by the fires, as were 1000 structures. Twenty firemen were injured. (25th-29th) (The Weather Channel)

 

1971: Project Stormfury was an attempt to weaken tropical cyclones by flying aircraft into them and seeding with silver iodide. The project was run by the United States Government from 1962 to 1983. Hurricane Ginger in 1971 was the last hurricane Project Stormfury seeded.

1979 - In the midst of a hot September for Death Valley, California, the afternoon high was 104 degrees for the second of three days, the coolest afternoon highs for the month. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Freezing temperatures were reported in the Northern and Central Appalachians, and the Upper Ohio Valley. The morning low of 27 degrees at Concord NH tied their record for the date. Temperatures soared into the 90s in South Dakota. Pierre SD reported an afternoon high of 98 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across Florida. Afternoon highs of 92 degrees at Apalachicola and 95 degrees at Fort Myers were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Rain spread from the southeastern states across New England overnight. Cape Hatteras NC reported measurable rainfall for the fourteenth straight day, with 15.51 inches of rain recorded during that two week period. Phoenix AZ reported a record high of 108 degrees, and a record 134 days of 100 degree weather for the year. Afternoon temperatures were only in the 40s over parts of northwest Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1998: There were four hurricanes were spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic basin: Georges, Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. That was the first time this had happened since 1893. 

2004 - After making its infamous loop east of the Bahamas, Hurricane Jeanne made landfall the night of September 26th, 2004. Jeanne came ashore as a major category 3 hurricane just a few miles away from where Hurricane Frances made landfall a few weeks before. Jeanne produced extensive damage along the east central Florida coast from Volusia County south to Martin County. The highest wind gusts occurred over extreme Southern Brevard County as well as Indian River County with 110 - 120 mph estimates at the peak of the storm. (NWS, Melbourne, FL)

[Stormlover74]

Ukie goes bonkers for Friday and Saturday sw of NYC 

[Rtd208]

5 hours ago, wdrag said:

Just re-running this post from 9/24. Other than the 00z/27 NAM,  this looks to be correct for what seems like a pretty big event Friday in the NYC subforum, particularly se NYS/CT/LI/coastal NJ with a potential for mdt coastal flooding at the highest of the high tide cycles, as well widespread 1/4-3" of rain with isolated 5'?  00z/27 RDPS has 6". Best axis of max rainfall uncertain but it looks like PA/Catskills least likely for R+... nose of the inverted trough and organizing low pressure off the mid Atlantic coast the culprits. EPS from 18z/26 is even larger than what am showing from last Saturday. 

Also, it still seems to me that we're in general onshore flow here in the NYC subforum, especially NJ/LI through the first week of October, although I could see a day of north or north-northwest. 

 

Depending what the models show today maybe it's time for a separate storm specific thread? The 00z UKMET was certainly interesting.

[dmillz25]

Down to 51 here

[wdrag]

4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Depending what the models show today maybe it's time for a separate storm specific thread? The 00z UKMET was certainly interesting.

I agree: I can get this going at 5PM, pending 12z cycle. I see the 06z/NAM has gotten back on track... probably too far west but at least its sending pockets of heavy rain northward into the NYC subforum. The 06z RGEM continues on track with its 00z/27 predecessor and from what I can tell...combined with the persistent EPS (EC op has been a little east), I think this is looking like coastal NJ/extreme se NYS/LI/CT-SNE storm where widespread 1-2" with iso 4 or 5 possibly ble. The 1/4 stuff I think is reserved for e PA/Catskills, I90 and maybe extreme nw NJ.

Coastal flooding minor per NWS, but I'm thinking this evening and Wednesday evening and then potential worst of this last half of Sept, occurring Saturday mid morning high tide cycle (MDT), and possible ditto Sunday mid morning. 

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of September are averaging   62degsq.(56/68) or -4.11

HW Alert???,>>>   Week 1 of October:

                 75degs.(66/84) or +13.

 

Month to date is   70.8[+0.8].     September should end at 69.7[+0.4].

Reached 62 here yesterday at 2pm.

Today:   62-66, wind ne., scattered clouds, 56 tomorrow AM.

54*(77%RH) here at 7am.     57* at 9pm.      63* at Noon.    66* at 2pm.   Reached 67* at 3pm.     63* at 8pm.

[ForestHillWx]

Sneaky cool morning…45

[MANDA]

21 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Sneaky cool morning…45

Same here.  Overnight low of 45.  Turned the heat on.

[dmillz25]

Low of 49 here

[EastonSN+]

If I am not mistaken, last year's Neg NAO pattern was not classic and allowed needed high pressures to escape east. Therefore we were due to fail from a snowstorm perspective.

In the below snip, there is a ridge right through the Atlantic. If I remember correctly last year the ridge was right over us allowing the escape route east.

[EastonSN+]

This is what we saw last year. Missing the ridge in my previous neg NAO example. This is this year but looks like last winter. High pressures escape east. 

[Big Jims Videos]

I am with Walt on the coastal flood potential Friday.  Highest astronomical tides of the year, weeks of higher than normal waves and water stuck in back bays, already minor to moderate beach erosion from Ophelia and Friday could be the finale.  

[Big Jims Videos]

This is how Bay Head looks this morning about two hours after high tide   

[bluewave]

Low of 46° this morning here at KHVN is coldest of season so far.

 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khvn

[SACRUS]

57 / 48.  Brief reprieve from the clouds and rain (18 hours).  Warm up to near 70 NE flow and still some clouds keep it cool.  Clouds back Thu (9/28) and rains back in E-WSW Fri (9/29) and to close the month Sat (9/30).  Perhaps some more heavy amounts 1 - 2+ inches is coastal and eastern areas.   

 

Beyond there 10/2 - 10/10 - heights up into the east with warm air - but still see onshore flow bias outside of early next week where 80s are on the menu, especially in the warmer spits.  Overall warmer - when the flow isnt onshore it will be stronger warmth.

 

 

[Superstorm93]

38th anniversary of Gloria 

Extremely similar track to Irene back in 2011

 

[gravitylover]

My recollection of Gloria is it wasn't all that bad. Nothingburger comes to mind. I do remember walking outside and being in the eye with bright sunshine and a rotating wall of white and grey framing a deep blue circle in the sky. That was pretty cool. 

[Stormlover74]

Nam is fairly wet Friday. 3knam keeps everything well east. Euro still not enthused. I guess we won't have clarity until tomorrow

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

My recollection of Gloria is it wasn't all that bad. Nothingburger comes to mind. I do remember walking outside and being in the eye with bright sunshine and a rotating wall of white and grey framing a deep blue circle in the sky. That was pretty cool. 

Ton of rain where I was just west of Philly but it weakened as it paralleled the coast and drew in continental air....

[Superstorm93]

End of the HRRR was gearing up for a pretty decent flooding event across the NYC metro on Friday.

Kind of like a Norlun...but with 1.6" PWATS

 

 

[Stormlover74]

18 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

My recollection of Gloria is it wasn't all that bad. Nothingburger comes to mind. I do remember walking outside and being in the eye with bright sunshine and a rotating wall of white and grey framing a deep blue circle in the sky. That was pretty cool. 

Had off from school. Alot of rain and wind. Lost power for half a day. But yeah unless you were on LI or new England it was just a nuisance type event

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

My recollection of Gloria is it wasn't all that bad. Nothingburger comes to mind. I do remember walking outside and being in the eye with bright sunshine and a rotating wall of white and grey framing a deep blue circle in the sky. That was pretty cool. 

We got lucky in Long Beach since Gloria hit a low tide instead of high tide. It had a higher storm surge than Irene but Irene came in  at high tide. So the actual tide levels for both storms in Long Beach were the same. The wind gusts over portions of Eastern Long Island were estimated at 100+. 
 

 

[forkyfork]

we could be looking at a significant flood event friday if some of the meso models are correct