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September 2023


Stormlover74
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7 hours ago, psv88 said:

I’ll give this a try. would love to track storms tracking near cape cod. Would screw the interior but be great for the coast. Ala Juno
 

 

 

It all depends on where one is. And those who live in Ohio would love to see storms tracking to over interior NY State. I suspect the season is going to be hyperactive and storms are going to track all over the place. Very few people likely to be disappointed. I just hope we we some cold air to work with.

WX/PT

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20 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

It all depends on where one is. And those who live in Ohio would love to see storms tracking to over interior NY State. I suspect the season is going to be hyperactive and storms are going to track all over the place. Very few people likely to be disappointed. I just hope we we some cold air to work with.

WX/PT

Can’t be worse than last winter, so we have that going for us 

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A storm brought a soaking rain to the region late yesterday and today. Rainfall totals included:

Bridgeport: 1.19"
Islip: 1.32"
New Haven: 0.93"
New York City: 1.57"
Newark: 1.35"
Philadelphia: 1.11"
Poughkeepsie: 2.08"

Dry weather will prevail through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will generally top out in the middle 70s in much of the region.

Another storm could bring a significant rainfall to the region Saturday night into Sunday.

In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern could develop in eastern North America as September concludes.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -19.79 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.331 today.

On September 16 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.591 (RMM). The September 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.474 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.3° (2.1° above normal).

 

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The 0z guidance is 3 to 1 in favor of a wet tropical moisture weekend. The Euro, CMC, and UKMET are wet. While the GFS took its turn as a drier model. The CMC will pull off a big win if we get a decent shot of moisture since it has been the most steady model from run to run showing this. 

https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/23091900/99.html

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The next 8 days are averaging    65degs.(59/71) or -2.

Reached  69 here at 3pm.

Today:  71-75, wind w.-breezy, few clouds, 60 tomorrow AM.

59*(85%RH) here at 7am.    61* at 9am.     64* at 10am.      73* at 3pm.     Reached 76* at 5pm.      70* at 8pm.

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