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September 2023


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Dry weather will prevail through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will generally top out in the lower and middle 70s in much of the region. Nights will see readings in the 50s in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia with 40s possible in some of the colder suburbs.

Another storm could bring a significant rainfall to the region Saturday night into Sunday.

In the medium and longer range, a warmer than normal pattern could develop in eastern North America as September concludes.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -25.67 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.206 today.

On September 17 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.591 (RMM). The September 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.646 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (1.8° above normal).


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Still a bit of model spread for the weekend. While all models give us a decent rain, the CMC is stronger and further north. Guess more people would be paying attention if this was a winter forecast with P-type issues. CMC more of a stronger inland runner than the GFS and Euro. The CMC has really been holding steady compared to the other models.







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I think we should pay a lot of attention to which models are going to be spot on. Will give us insight this winter. This is a very winter-esque storm.

I also like to see these types of storm starting to form in the fall. It gives me hope for the upcoming winter pattern. It has been sorely lacking in recent years with most of our storms cutting west.

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