nycsnow Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 HRR looks good for metro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 Just now, nycsnow said: HRR looks good for metro 3k Nam has that central nj to LI jackpot 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 3k Nam has that central nj to LI jackpot Nams crush us later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 45 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s be a rough summer for heat lovers….haha low 80’s and upper 70’s this weekend I think everyone likes low 80s...nobody upset, so definitely not "rough" for anyone... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: I think everyone likes low 80s...nobody upset, so definitely not "rough" for anyone... Some would prefer low 80s dewpoints 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 First half of August slightly below normal for most of the area and the coming week looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 I think the bulk of the activity tonight stays South of I-78 with the exception of an isolated or stray storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 I'm a little outside your region but I do have the heat going on, 106F at my local weather station (Warfield BC) -- I think you may get one day of this heat on Monday from model consensus, Tuesday sees it cut off quickly by a fast-moving cold front before noon. Could peak at 98-102 for you but just one day, we are in middle of five-day heat wave here. Not sweating much, dew point is 43F. Relative humidity is 12%. I suspect you will improve on those numbers and get a brief 100/78 combo on Monday. At the same time, I can see how it fails to reach your region (mid-Atlantic looks more certain) and I can also see how it lasts several days if Tuesday front is a glancing blow. Anyway, Don if you read this, BC August record of 41.7 was set in 2004 and looks likely to fall if not here then at Lytton BC which is at 41.5 this hour. (we are 41.2). This is not quite as bad as the heat dome but close. (later edit 4 p.m. Pacific daylight time, Lytton BC at 42.1 has broken that record, locally we stayed at 41 C). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Nams crush us later Nope miss south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: It’s be a rough summer for heat lovers….haha low 80’s and upper 70’s this weekend Looks like a glancing heat blow at best. Models backing off as we get closer. Omega type block with big ridge in the Midwest/plains. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 15, 2023 Share Posted August 15, 2023 3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Some would prefer low 80s dewpoints People who sit inside in AC all day maybe. This has been a terrific summer so far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 what a cool summer overall, trough after trough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Slightly cooler air will move into the region tonight. Wednesday through Saturday will likely see readings that are somewhat cooler than normal. Saturday morning could be the coolest morning so far this month as a reinforcing shot of cool air moves into the region. Abnormal heat could persist across the southern U.S. into the fourth week of August. Afterward, the intensity of the heat should fade even as the heat expands in geographic scope. The weekend could witness rain and noticeably cooler temperatures in Phoenix with the mercury staying below 100° in Phoenix on Sunday. In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme heat event continues. the heat will ease tomorrow. Records included: Eugene: 105° Olympia: 100° Omak: 108° (new August record) Portland: 103° (latest 3-day streak of 100° on record) Salem: 102° The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was +0.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.568 today. On August 14 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.135 (RMM). The August 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.112 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Pouring here currently under a tiny cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Pouring here currently under a tiny cell .15 more then I got last night haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 That complex off the south Jersey coast eould be an epic flooder if it were over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Again the GFS with a very abbreviated glancing blow of heat for Monday followed by potentially severe storms Monday evening as a cold front crosses and unseasonably cool weather later Tuesday through Saturday....if you believe the GFS. CMC is basically the same idea. This not a forecast but just what these particular model runs suggest. WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 8/15 ACY: 92 PHL: 91 BLM: 90 New Brnswck: 86 TTN: 86 EWR: 84 JFK: 81 ISP: 80 NYC: 80 TEB: 79 LGA: 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 1.10” so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 .35 overnight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 .81” overnight. This trough just keeps on giving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Wait I picked up 1.07 overnight? Didn't even know it rained 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 10 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That complex off the south Jersey coast eould be an epic flooder if it were over land. I'm down in OC NJ on vacation-incredible lightning off the coast last night-was cool to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 77degs.(68/86) or +1. Reached 88 here yesterday at 5pm. Today: 76-80, wind e., m. cloudy till Noon, 73 tomorrow AM 72*(92%RH) here at 7am. 75* at 9am. 78* at Noon. 80* at 4pm. Reached 84* at 5pm. 76* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 At the border of Manchester and Toms River I’ve dodged so much of these central / south events. Any of the previous watches and elevated severe days recently we’ve basically had nothing but drizzles, haven’t seen much in the way of thunder this summer actually. Temp sitting at 73.9 for the month of August to this point, vs 77.2 for the month of July and 67.1 for June. Interesting summer so far! Really starting to feel that fall / winter hype, my time to shine! Nov through Feb are my favorite months of the year. Wife and I working out if we’re doing our hiking trip to Iceland this Nov again. The eruption of Fagradalsfjall is over now but would be fun to get out to the fresh lava flow field. Good things to look forward to. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 13 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: At the border of Manchester and Toms River I’ve dodged so much of these central / south events. Any of the previous watches and elevated severe days recently we’ve basically had nothing but drizzles, haven’t seen much in the way of thunder this summer actually. Temp sitting at 73.9 for the month of August to this point, vs 77.2 for the month of July and 67.1 for June. Interesting summer so far! Really starting to feel that fall / winter hype, my time to shine! Nov through Feb are my favorite months of the year. Wife and I working out if we’re doing our hiking trip to Iceland this Nov again. The eruption of Fagradalsfjall is over now but would be fun to get out to the fresh lava flow field. Good things to look forward to. Yeah, very close to normal temperatures this summer across the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 0.31" around 4am... wasn't even aware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Another nice moderate rainfall, great for the garden. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 .85" last night. The downpour woke me up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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