August 2023

[WestBabylonWeather]

Please no. I think we had 12+” of rain in a matter of hours. 

Yup. That was a record. I was the only one in my office. Several coworkers had totaled cars. It was foot of rain. Never seen anything like it.


.

[Prue11]

Off topic but does anyone have an issue with Yellowjacket’s this year? I had a hornets nest and an underground Yellowjacket next a few weeks ago now the past few days yellow jackets are hovering all over my backyard. Maybe it’s the humidity this year and the not so cold winters we’ve been having

[WestBabylonWeather]

Off topic but does anyone have an issue with Yellowjacket’s this year? I had a hornets nest and an underground Yellowjacket next a few weeks ago now the past few days yellow jackets are hovering all over my backyard. Maybe it’s the humidity this year and the not so cold winters we’ve been having

Literally dealing with this now

Yellow jacket nest under siding. They are getting spicy so can’t go near it. Exterminator coming tomorrow

And just today, a wasp species built a mud mound on my front lawn. I’m being attacked over here


.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, justinj said:

Off topic but does anyone have an issue with Yellowjacket’s this year? I had a hornets nest and an underground Yellowjacket next a few weeks ago now the past few days yellow jackets are hovering all over my backyard. Maybe it’s the humidity this year and the not so cold winters we’ve been having

It’s probably because we’ve had a quite a few premature cool nights this month. Plenty of nights with lows in the 50’s. Tricking them into thinking it’s September already. That’s when they start going nuts because they can sense the end is near.

[Rmine1]

6 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Yup. That was a record. I was the only one in my office. Several coworkers had totaled cars. It was foot of rain. Never seen anything like it.


.

The lakes in brightwaters became one with the concourse canal. Literally raging rapids

[NJwx85]

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

Literally dealing with this now

Yellow jacket nest under siding. They are getting spicy so can’t go near it. Exterminator coming tomorrow

And just today, a wasp species built a mud mound on my front lawn. I’m being attacked over here


.

The mud nest is a mud dauber. Mostly harmless. They nest alone.  

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, justinj said:

Off topic but does anyone have an issue with Yellowjacket’s this year? I had a hornets nest and an underground Yellowjacket next a few weeks ago now the past few days yellow jackets are hovering all over my backyard. Maybe it’s the humidity this year and the not so cold winters we’ve been having

YES!  same here.  Yellowjacket nest under the concrete slab of my front porch.  The swarm when I walk by or water the flower pots.  Don’t want to kill them but getting annoying.  Only the first frost will end this.  Know what you are talking about.

[SnoSki14]

18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

There does look to be a very sharp cutoff around the Union Middlesex border

That's what it looks like. 

[donsutherland1]

Rain and thunderstorms are likely tonight. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely with locally higher amounts of up to 3.00". Tomorrow will again see readings near or somewhat above normal before slightly cooler air moves into the region.

Abnormal heat could persist across the southern U.S. into the fourth week of August. Afterward, the intensity of the heat should fade even as the heat expands in geographic scope.

In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme heat event is underway. Numerous daily and monthly records fell. Records included:

Eugene: 103° (old record: 101°, 2010)
Hillsboro, OR: 107° (old record: 101°, 1953 and 2008) ***New August record***
Portland: 108° (old record: 102°, 2008) ***New August record***
Salem: 105° (old record: 102°, 1942)
Troutdale, OR: 110° (old record: 101°, 2008) ***New August record***
Vancouver, WA: 108° (old record: 102°, 2008) ***New August record***

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was +3.64 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.774 today.

On August 13 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.113 (RMM). The August 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.227 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (0.1° below normal).

 

[forkyfork]

30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's going to be north of here. Current radar and HRRR reflect that

Stuff in PA also has an ENE component favoring northern areas

the best cape is over southern areas

[forkyfork]

[Prue11]

15 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Literally dealing with this now

Yellow jacket nest under siding. They are getting spicy so can’t go near it. Exterminator coming tomorrow

And just today, a wasp species built a mud mound on my front lawn. I’m being attacked over here


.

The ones in my backyard aren’t nesting they’re just hovering around im assuming looking for food 

[dmillz25]

Rain thunderstorms and a brief spin up and flooding? I’ll be up

[Wxoutlooksblog]

20 minutes ago, justinj said:

Off topic but does anyone have an issue with Yellowjacket’s this year? I had a hornets nest and an underground Yellowjacket next a few weeks ago now the past few days yellow jackets are hovering all over my backyard. Maybe it’s the humidity this year and the not so cold winters we’ve been having

I have yellow jackets all the time in my apartment as do my nextdoor neighbors. We are attributing it to an abundance of construction going on next door to us on our block where an 8 story building is going up. Yellow jackets can deliver a mean sting which is worse if you're allergic. I have not been stung yet. They do not live long once they're indoors. 

WX/PT

[forkyfork]

5 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Rain thunderstorms and a brief spin up and flooding? I’ll be up

max amounts on the href approach 7". someone's getting that 

[dmillz25]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

max amounts on the href approach 7". someone's getting that 

If you’re all in then I have to be up to witness it

[Intensewind002]

39 minutes ago, justinj said:

Off topic but does anyone have an issue with Yellowjacket’s this year? I had a hornets nest and an underground Yellowjacket next a few weeks ago now the past few days yellow jackets are hovering all over my backyard. Maybe it’s the humidity this year and the not so cold winters we’ve been having

There was a huge bald faced hornet hive in my yard earlier this summer but we got it taken out. I also saw some cicada killers flying around and they were absolutely gigantic

[MANDA]

19 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

max amounts on the href approach 7". someone's getting that 

If that materializes there will be severe flooding.  Especially if it were to fall along and north of 78 as that area is already rather waterlogged.

[SRRTA22]

Rather the bulk goes just north of us...I'll take the gamble on some surface based convection...

[Allsnow]

01z HRRR is a crush job for the metro 

[Allsnow]

[Allsnow]

 

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

01z HRRR is a crush job for the metro 

 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

New HRRR run shifted it slightly north. We're so close to the sharp cutoff here as you said earlier. We could get a ton of rain or we could get almost nothing. I'll be staying up in case we get crushed. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

New HRRR run shifted it slightly north. We're so close to the sharp cutoff here as you said earlier. We could get a ton of rain or we could get almost nothing. I'll be staying up in case we get crushed. 

Yeah I'm thinking this favors areas further north 

[winterwx21]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah I'm thinking this favors areas further north 

Radar looks that way too, but it's going to be very close. 

[SRRTA22]

Heaviest will be north but this puts us (NYC metro) for a greater chance at svr .....I like the spring valley area for heaviest rain amounts

[NJwx85]

https://x.com/nwswpc/status/1691287935927410689?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw

[Rtd208]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

https://x.com/nwswpc/status/1691287935927410689?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw

For visual reference.

 

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Heaviest will be north but this puts us (NYC metro) for a greater chance at svr .....I like the spring valley area for heaviest rain amounts

Most models have 2 heavy rain areas-one that goes into UNY and well north of us with the mid level warm front and one further south with the surface warm front. Hopefully the same areas that got slammed in July don't again. 

The large heavy rain area is probably associated with the mid level warm front and will go north of most of us. HRRR develops more heavy rain east of where that line is in central PA and that would be I-78 to I-80 and NYC/LI's shot with the surface warm front. But if that front goes a little north so will the heavy rain. 

The higher CAPE is south of the front and where the severe threat would be.