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10 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I wonder if it could be jet fuel residue?  The rumor I heard is that planes dump excess fuel before landing, just in case there is a problem.

That would be tremendously costly and wasteful. Planes usually carry significantly more fuel than needed incase something happens and they need to modify the flight plan. Planes that travel over large bodies of water like transatlantic flights carry even more extra fuel.

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80 / 72 and partly/m cloudy.   Scattered/ isolated showers, storm as trough pushes front through the next 36 hours.  By Sat (8/19) - Sun morning, NW flow dry and very nice.  Low 80s day 60s perhaps 50s at night.   Mega ridge builds over Kansas to 600 DM and pushes heat into the region Mon (8/21) / Tue (8/22) 850 MB temps >16c - 18C.  The strongest heat looks just south before ridge wanes and NW-N-NE flow arrive at some point Wed (8./23).  Hurricane  Hillary pumps the western side o the ridge before pulling trough into the Pacific NW later next week.  Flow goes back more westerly and another blast of heat looks to arrive later next week.  


Beyond there, heights look elevated into the EC, we'll see the seasonal trend fade with more ridging into the EC.  Overall warm and perhaps tropics bring in some new threats to the EC/GOM.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif   

 

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Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 97 (2015)
NYC: 95 (2015)
LGA: 94 (1944)


Lows:

EWR: 55 (1979)
NYC: 56 (1979)
LGA: 58 (1979)

Historical:

 

1899: Hurricane San Ciriaco set many records on its path. Killing nearly 3,500 people in Puerto Rico, it was the deadliest hurricane to hit the island and the strongest at the time, until 30 years later when the island was affected by the Hurricane San Felipe Segundo, a Category 5 hurricane, in 1928. It was also the tenth deadliest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded. San Ciriaco is also the longest lasting Atlantic hurricane in recorded history, continuing for 28 days. On August 17, the hurricane turned back to the northwest and made landfall near Hatteras, North Carolina on the following day. San Ciriaco remains the strongest hurricane to make landfall on the Outer Banks since 1899.

1915 - A hurricane hit Galveston, TX, with wind gusts to 120 mph and a twelve foot storm surge. The storm claimed 275 lives, including forty-two on Galveston Island, with most deaths due to drowning. Of 250 homes built outside the seawall (which was constructed after the catastrophic hurricane of 1900), just ten percent were left standing. (The Weather Channel)

1946: An estimated F-4 tornado killed 11 people and injured 100 others in the Mankato, Minnesota area around 6:52 PM. The deaths and most of the injuries occurred in the complete destruction of the 26 cabins at the Green Gables tourist camp, 3 miles southwest of Mankato. A 27-ton road grader was reportedly hurled about 100 feet. Another tornado an hour later destroys downtown Wells, Minnesota.

1969 - Camille, the second worst hurricane in U.S. history, smashed into the Mississippi coast. Winds gusted to 172 mph at Main Pass Block LA, and to 190 mph near Bay Saint Louis MS. The hurricane claimed 256 lives, and caused 1.3 billion dollars damage. Several ocean going ships were carried over seven miles inland by the hurricane. The hurricane produced winds to 200 mph, and a storm surge of 24.6 feet. Complete destruction occurred in some coastal areas near the eye of the hurricane. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1969: The music festival, known as Woodstock, should have ended on this day. Jimi Hendrix, the last act to perform, was delayed due to rain on Sunday evening. Jimi Hendrix took the stage at 8:30 am Monday morning. 

1987 - Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Northern and Central Plains Region. One thunderstorm spawned a tornado near Fairbury NE, along with baseball size hail and wind gusts to 100 mph, causing severe crop damage west of town. Ten cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Syracuse NY hit 97 degrees for the first time in twenty-two years. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Fifty-five cities, from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, reported record high temperatures for the date. Beckley WV reported an all-time record high of 96 degrees, and Baltimore MD hit 104 degrees, marking their thirteenth day of the year with 100 degree heat. Chicago IL equalled a record with 46 days of 90 degree weather for the year. Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Wisconsin to New Jersey. Thunderstorms in New Jersey produced high winds which gusted to 92 mph at Wrightstown, and blew down a circus tent at Lavallette injuring fourteen persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Morning thunderstorms produced three to six inch rains in Oklahoma, and the Arkalatex area of Arkansas, Texas and Louisiana. Tom OK was soaked with 5.98 inches of rain, and Foreman AR received 5.55 inches. Evening thunderstorms produced high winds in the Wasatch Front of northern Utah. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 66 mph at Salt Lake City, and flash flooding caused up to two million dollars damage to a marina on Lake Powell. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

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15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

So about that heat next week? The beat goes on…..

 

 

 

Short lived but that time Mon (8/21) looks to be in the low / mid 90s based on current forecasts.  I knew when the GFs and Euro showed the ridge axis centered in Ohio the seasonal trend would be south /west of there.  Huge ridge pumped by Hillary on the west side forcing a N/NE flow by .ater Tue / Wed but flow comes around NW/W again by late next week for another day/2 of some heat.  We'll see.  Summer is similar to 2017 ish vs the other sustained heat recent years.

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7 hours ago, forkyfork said:

you guys said those 90s didn't count because of lower humidity 

I think Monday is the best possibility for a 90. Very slight chance Sunday. Beyond then, again if you believe the GFS there could be a chance Thursday or Friday but the GFS performance has been extremely poor particularly beyond 4 days so I'm not ready to take it very seriously. 

WX/PT

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7 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

That would be tremendously costly and wasteful. Planes usually carry significantly more fuel than needed incase something happens and they need to modify the flight plan. Planes that travel over large bodies of water like transatlantic flights carry even more extra fuel.

I do occasionally witness it.

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Tomorrow through Saturday will likely see readings that are somewhat cooler than normal. Some showers and thundershowers are likely tonight into tomorrow morning. Saturday morning could be the coolest morning so far this month as a reinforcing shot of cool air moves into the region. Warmer air will return to close the weekend.

Meanwhile Hilary will bring a historic rainfall to parts of the California desert into Nevada Saturday night through Monday. Highest rainfall amounts could reach 6"-10". It is possible that Death Valley's rainfall could exceed its highest monthly total.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -4.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.472 today.

On August 15 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.134 (RMM). The August 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.193 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.4° (0.7° below normal).

 

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