July 2023

[Rtd208]

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

hooray 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

25 minutes ago, Euripides said:

Long Island doing that north of the LIE for storms like it did last year or was that two years ago when the south shore was parched but north shore was green?

 

It was a beautiful beach day at Jones beach. Water is incredibly warm and turquoise, I would have to think surface water nearing 80. It’s also super dry here, we really need something to survive to the coast tomorrow 

[Rjay]

16 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

hooray 

[Brian5671]

Flood watches up for tomorrow night region wide except LI

[Allsnow]

@forkyfork thoughts about tomorrow for our area? Just a flood threat? 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Rain and 50’s…no thank you 

Yea like we know what this winter will bring 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@forkyfork thoughts about tomorrow for our area? Just a flood threat? 

Looks like a slow moving line with heavy rain rather than severe

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It was a beautiful beach day at Jones beach. Water is incredibly warm and turquoise, I would have to think surface water nearing 80. It’s also super dry here, we really need something to survive to the coast tomorrow 

NAM 3k shows a more organized system/wave that can get heavy rain for everyone. If it’s the usual southerly flow deal, it’ll end up the same way it’s been since mid June. We need a wave along the front or a more organized synoptic type system. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

NAM 3k shows a more organized system/wave that can get heavy rain for everyone. If it’s the usual southerly flow deal, it’ll end up the same way it’s been since mid June. We need a wave along the front or a more organized synoptic type system. 

Exactly. There needs to be organized lift. I think we all get some rain tomorrow with the obvious flooding threat being inland. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Long Island doing that north of the LIE for storms like it did last year or was that two years ago when the south shore was parched but north shore was green?
 

Last year. We had a massive drought. But certain parts of Long Island had thunderstorms.


.

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Last year. We had a massive drought. But certain parts of Long Island had thunderstorms.


.

Last summer it was night and day south and north of the LIE. My area was hit numerous times and south shore dried to a crisp. This summer’s way more widespread on LI with the dry conditions. 

[donsutherland1]

It will turn somewhat cooler tomorrow with additional potentially heavy showers and thunderstorms. More very warm and perhaps hot weather could develop next week.

Next week could also see an extreme heat event develop in the Southwest. Cities such as Tucson and Phoenix could see readings rise toward record daily levels. The excessive heat could extend across New Mexico and a large part of Texas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was +9.79 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.873 today.

On July 6 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.634 (RMM). The July 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.867 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0° (1.5° above normal).

 

[Rmine1]

And here we go again for LI.  Rain chances going to the wayside for tomorrow. 

[lee59]

No rain here today, temperatures reached the mid 80s

[Dan76]

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

No rain here today, temperatures reached the mid 80s

 

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 89 here.

Current temp 77/DP 74/RH 92%

[SACRUS]

7/8

PHL: 90
New Brnswck: 89
EWR: 88
NYC: 88
TTN: 88
LGA: 87
TEB: 86
ACY: 86
BLM: 86
ISP: 84
JFK: 84

[psv88]

87 today 

[dmillz25]

90 here 

[Snowlover11]

72/70 early this morning, feels like i got smacked with a wet towel.

[gravitylover]

Yep 72/70 here too but with very dense fog. Yuck. 

[steve392]

This afternoon could be a fun one for nj and nyc if the forecast holds together.  

 

71 and overcast. Gross as hell out still.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    82degs.(73/91) or +4.

Month to date is   80.1[+3.3].      Should be  81.1[+3.7] by the 17th.

Reached 83 here yesterday at 2pm.

Today:    81 early, then falling slowly, wind e., cloudy and Rain by 6pm., 73 tomorrow AM.

76*(98%RH) here at 7am{was 75 overnight}.       80* at 10am.      Reached 83* at 5pm.      78* at 6pm.

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

 

I’ll take the under for the island. However I could see this being the real deal form the city west. Also, somewhere north of the lie could get one of those stationary dumpers. I hope this event breaks the trend however. 

[SACRUS]

 

80 / 72 and mostly cloudy.  Steamy day ahead with widespread storms later in the day into the overnight.  Mon (7/10) some lingering storms and clouds.  Tue (7/11) - Thu (7/13) heats back up , humid and more low to mid 90s especially Wed (7/12).  Scattered storms during the period.

Fri (7/14) and beyond overall warm to humid with western atlantic ridge along the coast keeping a warm southwest flow with pieces f the stronger heat moving up near or into the area at times.  Trough into the GL nearby will keep storms nearby s warm humid and wetter continues.  Overnight guidance kept the strongest heat just south till next weekend before skirting the area by the next mon (7/17).

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 104 (1993)
NYC: 106 (1936)
LGA: 98 (1993)


Lows:

 

EWR: 56 (1963)
NYC: 54 (1963)
LGA: 57 (1963)

Historical:

 

 

1860 - A hot blast of air in the middle of a sweltering summer pushed the mercury up to 115 degrees at Fort Scott and Lawrence, KS. (David Ludlum)

1882 - Ice formed on the streets of Cheyenne, WY, during a rare summer freeze. (David Ludlum)

1936 - The temperature hit an all-time record high of 106 degrees at the Central Park Observatory in New York City, a record which lasted until LaGuardia Airport hit 107 degrees on July 3rd in 1966. (The Weather Channel)

1968 - Columbus, MS received 15.68 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a record for the state. (The Weather Channel)

 

1979: Hurricane Bob was born in the Gulf of Mexico, becoming the first Atlantic Hurricane to be given a male name.

1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Michigan. A tornado near Munising, MI, destroyed part of a commercial dog kennel, and one of the missing dogs was later found unharmed in a tree top half a mile away. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Twenty-three cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Alpena, MI, and Buffalo, NY, suffered through their sixth straight day of record heat. The percentage of total area in the country in the grips of severe to extreme drought reached 43 percent, the fourth highest total of record. The record of 61 percent occurred during the summer of 1934. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Morning thunderstorms produced very heavy rain in southern Lower Michigan and northern Indiana. Up to 5.6 inches of rain was reported in Berrien County, MI. Sioux Falls SD reported a record high of 108 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[TWCCraig]

15 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’ll take the under for the island. However I could see this being the real deal form the city west. Also, somewhere north of the lie could get one of those stationary dumpers. I hope this event breaks the trend however. 

Hi-res models have some rain coming in overnight tonight into early tomorrow morning, looks like that will be the main event out here if it unfolds. I don't think we see much during the day today or tomorrow afternoon other than isolated showers

[tdp146]

Islip buoy water temp went above 80 for a few hours yesterday. 
 

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44025

[jm1220]

32 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

Islip buoy water temp went above 80 for a few hours yesterday. 
 

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44025

The constant S wind is good for driving up the water temp. Offshore winds promote upwelling. Also why our dewpoints are going so much higher and the seabreeze doesn't deliver relief anymore-just more humidity.

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

80 / 72 and mostly cloudy.  Steamy day ahead with widespread storms later in the day into the overnight.  Mon (7/10) some lingering storms and clouds.  Tue (7/11) - Thu (7/13) heats back up , humid and more low to mid 90s especially Wed (7/12).  Scattered storms during the period.

Fri (7/14) and beyond overall warm to humid with western atlantic ridge along the coast keeping a warm southwest flow with pieces f the stronger heat moving up near or into the area at times.  Trough into the GL nearby will keep storms nearby s warm humid and wetter continues.  Overnight guidance kept the strongest heat just south till next weekend before skirting the area by the next mon (7/17).

 

 

I love your posts and usually agree, but I don't agree about tuesday and wednesday. It's gonna be hot tuesday and wednesday for sure, but to me it looks as if we'll get a little break from the high humidity those days with dewpoints falling to the low 60s. We probably won't have storm chances those days either. Humidity and storm chances go back up late week.