July 2023

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Ranking tables normally account for ties and the case mentioned would be 11th warmest, after five tied at 6th warmest. It would not or at least should not be ranked seventh warmest. Some tables including CET differentiate by second decimals not visible in the table. The apparently tied months are marginally separated by these unprinted second decimals. In some ranking tables, it is up to you to establish ties, the table may be printed without ties identified. Most commonly, that kind of table will have the tied years listed in chronological order. 

But with everyone tweeting their own versions of climate stats, it is wise to find out whether they respect conventional ranking protocols or not. Also a top ten from a record of thirty years is obviously a bit easier to establish than a top ten from 155 years like NYC or 183 like Toronto. 

Another source of minor confusion in at least one prominent set of ranks (CET) is the practice of leaving the warmest rank blank until it happens, for example, this is what you see if you click on monthly ranks for CET ... at the bottom of the rankings where they place the warmest months, you find 1st (ranks on right, the ranks on left are in the sense of coldest of 355 in their records) blank for July to December ... further up the table you need to remember that what appears to be 40th warmest August is actually 39th warmest August. 

(EXCERPT of CET monthly rankings)

 

   355     6.5  1686     6.9  1961     8.0  2022    10.2  1796    13.5  1868    16.4  1818    18.4  1808    18.0  1990    15.6  1780    12.5  1968     8.9  1881     7.3  1857    10.6  1990    11
   356     6.6  1898     6.9  2019     8.1  1734    10.2  1944    13.5  1919    16.6  1775    18.4  2013    18.1  1955    15.6  1999    12.6  1959     9.1  1817     7.3  1988    10.6  1999    10
   357     6.7  2008     6.9  2022     8.2  1750    10.3  1987    13.5  1947    16.8  1858    18.5  1995    18.2  1911    15.7  1760    12.7  1831     9.2  2022     7.4  1843    10.6  2017     9
   358     6.7  1983     7.0  2002     8.2  1961    10.3  1893    13.5  1784    16.9  1798    18.5  1921    18.3  1747    16.0  1795    12.7  1995     9.2  1730     7.4  1828    10.6  1949     8
   359     6.8  1975     7.1  1903     8.3  1990    10.3  2014    13.6  1992    16.9  1976    18.6  1976    18.3  2003    16.0  2021    12.8  1921     9.3  1743     7.5  1710    10.7  2018     7
   360     6.9  1733     7.1  1945     8.3  1948    10.3  1798    13.6  1727    16.9  1762    18.7  1852    18.6  1947    16.1  2016    12.8  2022     9.4  1938     7.6  1733    10.7  2011     6
   361     7.0  2007     7.2  1794     8.4  2012    10.5  1943    13.7  1808    17.0  2023    18.8  1783    18.6  1975    16.3  1949    12.9  2006     9.4  2015     7.7  1852    10.8  2020     5
   362     7.1  1834     7.2  1998     8.4  1997    10.5  2020    13.8  1788    17.1  1822    19.2  2018    18.7  2022    16.3  1865    13.0  2005     9.5  1818     7.9  1974    10.9  2006     4
   363     7.3  1796     7.3  1990     8.8  2017    10.6  1865    13.8  1758    17.3  1826    19.4  1983    19.0  1997    16.6  1729    13.1  1969     9.5  2011     8.1  1934    11.0  2014     3
   364     7.3  1921     7.5  1869     9.1  1938    11.3  2007    13.9  1848    18.0  1676    19.8  2006    19.1  1995    16.9  2006    13.2  2001     9.9  1994     9.6  2015    11.1  2022     2
   365     7.6  1916     7.9  1779     9.2  1957    11.9  2011    15.1  1833    18.2  1846     ---  2023     ---  2023     ---  2023     ---  2023     ---  2023     ---  2023     ---  2023     1

 

 

That’s why dense rank sorting for temperature records gives a much better perspective.

https://www.voltactivedata.com/blog/2016/12/rank-dense-rank/

1. What if there are 5 contestants whose score is 100? How will we decide among them? One plausible way, in the absence of other deciding factors, would be to list all 5 as number one, awarding 5 first place prizes.
2. If the first two scores are both 100, and the next is 99 is the contestant with score 99 the second or the third? In a baseball league the contestant with 99 would be third. In a contest where we care about scores more than contestants who achieve the scores, the 99 would be the second score. This might happen if we were looking at high temperatures in cities, and we care about the temperature numbers more than the cities that attained them. For shorthand in this note, call the first ranking the baseball ranking, and the second the temperature ranking

The NWS is New York uses dense rank sorting for top 10 temperature records. So there can be more than 10 years attaining a top 10 for warmest or coldest. But they haven’t updated for the numerous top 10 warmest months since they last updated in 2021.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf

 

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldyearsmonths.pdf

[uofmiami]

58 in Syosset & 57 in Muttontown this morning. Seems outside UHI areas it was 50s for everyone. 

[TWCCraig]

1 hour ago, bkviking said:

In Smithtown I had a low of 56°. It has to be years since it was this cool in midsummer around here. 

It was 56 degrees at ISP on this day just 2 years ago in 2021

50's in July aren't that abnormal. Used to have as many sub 60 degree nights as 90 degree days 

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

It was 56 degrees at ISP on this day just 2 years ago in 2021

50's in July aren't that abnormal. Used to have as many sub 60 degree nights as 90 degree days 

Yeah 50s were commonplace in July not that long ago even in the city but they're an increasingly rare occurrence now. 

[TWCCraig]

4th longest streak of 80+ days came to an end yesterday. It's been more uncomfortably humid this past July than most

 

[psv88]

58 this morning.

50s in July happen, nothing unusual. 
 

[MJO812]

Lovely weather 

[SACRUS]

78 / 54 off a low of 56..  Another gorgeous dry day.  Low - mid 80s hot spots could sneak in an 87 or so but just a really nice out with partly sunny skies by the pm.  The western ridge is staked in between PHX and Dallas Trough into the northeast with strong N/NW flow. More of the same to open the month Tuesday dry and low humidity  near to below normal.  By Thu (8/3) the flow is turning more southerly and so up goes the humidity.  Fri (8/4) - the coming weekend is warm , humid and back comes storms chances.  More towards a tropical transition.  Where and when the sun is out it is quite warm with a hot airmass nearby and moving up on the sw flow by Mon 7th - 9th with next 90s potential.

 

Beyond there the Western Atlantic Ridge builds west forces trough to back into the GL with humid , warm and stormy flow long the east cost.  Towards the end of next week heights and ridging into the east could heat it up more.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 103 (1954)
NYC: 102 (1933)
LGA: 97 (1954)


Lows:

 

EWR: 56 (1932)
NYC: 57 (1914)
LGA: 62 (1956)

 

Historical:

1715: Spanish treasure ships, returning from the New World to Spain, encountered a hurricane during the early morning hours on this day. Eleven of the twelve ships were lost near present-day Vero Beach, Florida. 

 

1949: Lightning struck a baseball field at Baker, Florida during a game. The shortstop and third baseman were killed instantly.

1976 - A stationary thunderstorm produced more than ten inches of rain which funneled into the narrow Thompson River Canyon of northeastern Colorado. A wall of water six to eight feet high wreaked a twenty-five mile path of destruction from Estes Park to Loveland killing 156 persons. The flash flood caught campers, and caused extensive structural and highway damage. Ten miles of U.S. Highway 34 were totally destroyed as the river was twenty feet higher than normal at times. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1986 - The temperature at Little Rock, AR, soared to 112 degrees to establish an all-time record high for that location. Morrilton, AR, hit 115 degrees, and daily highs for the month at that location averaged 102 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - The deadliest tornado in 75 years struck Edmonton, Alberta, killing 26 persons and injuring 200 others. The twister caused more than 75 million dollars damage along its nineteen mile path, leaving 400 families homeless. At the Evergreen Mobile Home Park, up to 200 of the 720 homes were flattened by the tornado. (The National Severe Storms Forecast Center)

1987 - Afternoon highs of 106 degrees at Aberdeen, SD, and 102 degrees at Ottumwa, IA, and Rapid City, SD, established records for the date. It marked the seventh straight day of 100 degree heat for Rapid City. Baltimore, MD, reported a record twenty-two days of 90 degree weather in July. Evening thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail at Lemmon, SD, and wind gusts to 80 mph at Beulah, ND. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Twenty-one cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Sioux City, IA, with a reading of 107 degrees. The reading of 105 degrees at Minneapolis, MN, was their hottest since 1936. Pierre and Chamberlain, SD, with highs of 108 degrees, were just one degree shy of the hot spot in the nation, Palm Springs, CA. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Overnight thunderstorms soaked eastern Kansas and western Missouri with heavy rain. Four and a half inches of rain was reported at Nevada, MO. Evening thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Covington. Six cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Williston, ND, with a reading of 105 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

 

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, TWCCraig said:

It was 56 degrees at ISP on this day just 2 years ago in 2021

50's in July aren't that abnormal. Used to have as many sub 60 degree nights as 90 degree days 

 

14 of LGA;s record lows in July are in the 60s., 1 at EWR and 0 at NYC all 50s. 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

14 of LGA;s record lows in July are in the 60s., 1 at EWR and 0 at NYC all 50s. 

LGA shorter record period 

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, bluewave said:

Probably due to the higher pressure east of New England turning the flow more onshore since 2015.  Newark has had 3 top 5 years for 90s since then. JFK hasn’t had any top 5 years since then. JFK needs westerly flow for a high number of 90° days. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	54	0
2	2022	49	0
-	1993	49	0
3	1988	43	0
4	2021	41	0
-	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
5	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	32	0
2	1983	26	0
3	2002	21	0
4	1971	18	0
-	1949	18	0
5	2005	17	0
-	1991	17	0

This matches up with my experience too, nothing even close to 1983, 2002 and 2010!

I take it neither NYC nor LGA has had any top 5 90+ days since then either, Chris?

 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, psv88 said:

58 this morning.

50s in July happen, nothing unusual. 
 

Yep, in July in August.  Did we all forget that it was in the 40s in June? Now that was unusual.

I remember mornings in August when it was close to getting into the 40s (low of 50) when I was outside viewing the Perseids, the skies were very clear, no haze, felt like early fall.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, TWCCraig said:

4th longest streak of 80+ days came to an end yesterday. It's been more uncomfortably humid this past July than most

 

July is supposed to be hot and dry, August is usually the month when it gets really humid.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, TWCCraig said:

4th longest streak of 80+ days came to an end yesterday. It's been more uncomfortably humid this past July than most

 

1966 and 2010 fit the pattern of the hot and dry July and they had MUCH more extreme heat than anything we have had recently.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s why dense rank sorting for temperature records gives a much better perspective.

https://www.voltactivedata.com/blog/2016/12/rank-dense-rank/

1. What if there are 5 contestants whose score is 100? How will we decide among them? One plausible way, in the absence of other deciding factors, would be to list all 5 as number one, awarding 5 first place prizes.
2. If the first two scores are both 100, and the next is 99 is the contestant with score 99 the second or the third? In a baseball league the contestant with 99 would be third. In a contest where we care about scores more than contestants who achieve the scores, the 99 would be the second score. This might happen if we were looking at high temperatures in cities, and we care about the temperature numbers more than the cities that attained them. For shorthand in this note, call the first ranking the baseball ranking, and the second the temperature ranking

The NWS is New York uses dense rank sorting for top 10 temperature records. So there can be more than 10 years attaining a top 10 for warmest or coldest. But they haven’t updated for the numerous top 10 warmest months since they last updated in 2021.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf

 

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldyearsmonths.pdf

IMO, dense ranking makes little sense for most climatological data. The important takeaway in climate ranking isn't how many times an specific, unique value has been achieved, it's how a given year compares to prior years. If there were seven warmer years, then the next highest should be in 8th - regardless of whether there were only 5 unique values higher.

But anyways, the implication from the original response that led to this thread isn't correct either. Rankings that are tied are denoted with an asterisk on the map. If there are three years in fifth place, then it will show 5* for the ranking. The next highest on those SERCC maps would be 8th place, as they use traditional ranking. It's not really that important, however, as there typically aren't that many ties as you get into the extreme values in the dataset. There's generally more extremes/outliers at the tails. Obviously, occasionally there will be 2 or 3 years tied. But it's much more frequent to have many years with the same value near the means and median of the dataset. Sometimes in the longer datasets, there might be 5 or 6 tied years near the middle. Not really relevant when talking about top 5 values. Even though, it's common to say normal isn't relevant and it's always either hot or cold. That isn't actually true. The reality is the highest percentage of years are typically around the mean/median (even though that's less true today in a warming climate).

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

IMO, dense ranking makes little sense for most climatological data. The important takeaway in climate ranking isn't how many times an specific, unique value has been achieved, it's how a given year compares to prior years. If there were seven warmer years, then the next highest should be in 8th - regardless of whether there were only 5 unique values higher.

But anyways, the implication from the original response that led to this thread isn't correct either. Rankings that are tied are denoted with an asterisk on the map. If there are three years in fifth place, then it will show 5* for the ranking. The next highest on those SERCC maps would be 8th place, as they use traditional ranking. It's not really that important, however, as there typically aren't that many ties as you get into the extreme values in the dataset. There's generally more extremes/outliers at the tails. Obviously, occasionally there will be 2 or 3 years tied. But it's much more frequent to have many years with the same value near the means and median of the dataset. Sometimes in the longer datasets, there might be 5 or 6 tied years near the middle. Not really relevant when talking about top 5 values. Even though, it's common to say normal isn't relevant and it's always either hot or cold. That isn't actually true. The reality is the highest percentage of years are typically around the mean/median (even though that's less true today in a warming climate).

Yes, please get rid of "averages" etc, I would much rather see a range of normal values within 1 SD be used for that rather than a single number.

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

IMO, dense ranking makes little sense for most climatological data.

Not sure why you say that. It gives you the 10 highest temperatures for the month which is all that we really are concerned with in compiling a temperature record for a given location.  The first table below is ranked by year. The 2nd table is dense rank and shows the 10 highest temperatures and the months.

Rank for ten warmest years

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1999	78.5	1
2	2013	77.0	0
-	2010	77.0	0
4	2020	76.9	0
5	2022	76.8	0
-	2019	76.8	0
7	1966	76.7	0
-	1955	76.7	2
9	2011	76.6	1
10	2023	76.4	2
-	2012	76.4	0

Dense Rank 10 warmest temperatures 

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1999	78.5	1
2	2013	77.0	0
2	2010	77.0	0
3	2020	76.9	0
4	2022	76.8	0
4	2019	76.8	0
5	1966	76.7	0
5	1955	76.7	2
6	2011	76.6	1
7	2023	76.4	2
7	2012	76.4	0
8	2016	76.3	0
8	1983	76.3	1
9	1952	76.2	0
9	1949	76.2	0
10	1995	76.0	6

 

[SACRUS]

 

Made it to 80 now more clouds and 78 /55.  Great day.  

 

  

 

 

[lee59]

Looks like Central Park will end up at 79 for July average. Today being 85-66.  This actually gives the Park a July temperature of 79.048, so I assume they round it off to 79.

[lee59]

My low this morning was 59.9

[doncat]

July here will finish tied for 7th warmest in 46 years....Rainfall was 6.69".

[bluewave]

West Point finishes with the most extreme rainfall around the region.

 

Time Series Summary for WEST POINT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2023	18.12	3
2	1897	13.05	0
3	2016	11.02	0
4	1945	10.21	0
5	1960	9.64	0
6	2018	9.27	0
7	1996	9.00	0
8	1984	8.65	0
9	1975	7.91	0
10	1994	7.72	0
-	1938	7.72	0

[lee59]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

West Point finishes with the most extreme rainfall around the region.

 

Time Series Summary for WEST POINT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2023	18.12	3
2	1897	13.05	0
3	2016	11.02	0
4	1945	10.21	0
5	1960	9.64	0
6	2018	9.27	0
7	1996	9.00	0
8	1984	8.65	0
9	1975	7.91	0
10	1994	7.72	0
-	1938	7.72	0

West Point got twice as much in July as I got in May, June and July combined.

[donsutherland1]

Under bright sunshine, New York City saw the temperature top out at 85°. As a result, July finished with a mean temperature of 79.1°, which was 1.6° above normal.

Fair and pleasant days coupled with low humidity will continue through at least midweek. No significant hot weather appears likely through the first week of August.

As has often occurred in areas witnessing prolonged sieges of heat in recent years, extreme heat will likely rebuild later in the week in the U.S. Southwest.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around July 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.05°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was +5.35 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.060 today.

On July 29 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.472 (RMM). The July 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.303 (RMM).

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

7/31

 

EWR: 87
New Brnswck: 85
LGA: 85
TEB: 85
NYC: 85
PHL: 85
BLM: 83
JFK: 83
ISP: 83
TTN: 83
ACY: 82

[WestBabylonWeather]

Where did summer go?! Not liking this. Going to the Catskills Saturday. A high of 73?! September vibes.


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