powderfreak Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3km is a fire hose tonight. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 NAM continues to be the only model looking like a textbook HECS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Probably best case at this point for CT? I realize you're being sort of CT-centric here ( it's all good ...), but this looks fantastic for everyone really... particularly considering that this thing is just getting situated and will rage for another 9 hours after that... or more - 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Can't ask for better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I realize you're being sort of CT-centric here ( it's all good ...), but this looks fantastic for everyone really... particularly considering that this thing is just getting situated and will rage for another 9 hours after that... or more - Thanks. I am pulling for everyone, even though ATM I am in the worst location in SWCT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Can't ask for better. Not happening James…unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Goes from the cancel up rt 3 to BOS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: NAM continues to be the only model looking like a textbook HECS. You know Brian ...I hate to say ( but secretly enjoy the opportunity ) but the NAM's (32 may be better, too - ironically) superior meshing may be able to "pick" a focal point for a low to "anchor" that latter aspect ( I just posted a popsicle headache that will surely scroll without many noticing) is causing the models et al ( I feel pretty strongly) to spray solution shit all over the wall on this thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3k NAM still has the low hundreds of miles off shore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3K still with the inv look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 It was obvious early on that it was going to get its act together a bit earlier....which is what helps with all the conveyors maturing quicker and giving a monster CCB to a lot of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mj-pvd Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 More worried my basement will flood than any snow. Providence winter of rain continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 NAM with 15" on snow by 10AM tomorrow for me... ummmm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Those 925's are torched for a good part of when the best precip is falling, eek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not happening James…unfortunately. If the NAM is going to score a coup...this would be the setup. Not saying that happens, but I don't think it can be discounted. My reasoning for this is just based on the upper-level dynamics. Everything you'd want to see for a big hit is there. I mean, we've had setups where mid-levels were great before but we will got screwed, but I'll take my luck any day with mid-level dynamics. If this was a scenario where they looked like crap...I'd be going more conservative the the Patriots offense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 3K still with the inv look. Yep way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not happening James…unfortunately. Ya I mean it’s nice to look at but it’s literally like 5% odds that happens. I hope the ct weenies outside of the northern hills enjoyed bc that’s the highlight of the storm right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 This would be an all-time Ray melt 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, dendrite said: This would be an all-time Ray melt We'd have a lot of melting going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Game over here. Good luck to those getting snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Which this next model series will suck, guaranteed ! There will be one model in the bunch that looks just about like a soulmate to the imaginations of the winter enthusiast, while all the others are varying degrees of angst and dither. The reason for this plaguing lack of consensus has become pretty clear - to me. This is for sake of discussion ... a perfect 500 mb evolution taking place over a hugely flawed low level environment. ...and by "flawed," we mean lacking a coherent baroclinic boundary/ ...thermodynamic intersection. It's rather amorphous, don't you think ? when there isn't a whole helluva lot of substantive difference between the sounding at BTV vs ACK. That circumstance is causing all kinds of problems with 'where to place' the low; that placement is necessary to more than less, "anchor" the total vertical vortex evolution. Without it, the models are quite figuratively if not literally ... spraying solutions by way of where ever the fractals of their complex physics happen to emerge a position in both space and time. This represents certain challenges to determinism for one, but a low will certainly develop out of the morass. It's likely that we are at modeling limit when faced with those challenges and will have to just wait and see... Or, perhaps they will all suddenly coalesce in the 18 ... 12, or 6 hour window There's a pretty nice signature developing on satellite off the 'Linas. Time to keep an eye on that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: North of him Looks great here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Amazing the difference between the 12k and 3 k NAMS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Man, I’m gonna ride the 12k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: This would be an all-time Ray melt Tossed unless Euro does it. NAM has been all over place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Heisy said: Where you located? I’m unable to chase this one, hate chasing elevation dependent events anyway, but still jealous AF! For those depressed this morning farther SE there is a signal around day 8-10! Lol . northern worcester county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: If the NAM is going to score a coup...this would be the setup. Not saying that happens, but I don't think it can be discounted. My reasoning for this is just based on the upper-level dynamics. Everything you'd want to see for a big hit is there. I mean, we've had setups where mid-levels were great before but we will got screwed, but I'll take my luck any day with mid-level dynamics. If this was a scenario where they looked like crap...I'd be going more conservative the the Patriots offense Lol. Your points are valid but 3k disagreeing with its cousin gives even more pause. Outside of the hills, we waste too much on liquid from the awful invt look. Mid level dynamics look to go to town too late, story of my KU life, for those along and SE of 84. I pray I am wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I mean wayyyy different in the LP location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Lol. Your points are valid but 3k disagreeing with its cousin gives even more pause. Outside of the hills, we waste too much on liquid from the awful invt look. Mid level dynamics look to go to town too late, story of my KU life, for those along and SE of 84. I pray I am wrong. nah, 12km NAM is on an island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Game over here. Good luck to those getting snow Yeah didn’t think we had much of a chance here in the coastal plain. It’s been fun to track but in the end a little disappointing. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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