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March 2023 Obs/Disco


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14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Right.   But It’s off hour folly anyway….that isn’t happening. 

It would be more elevation dependent but honestly, whenever the models have signaled these super wet and cold long range patterns in NNE, someone has gotten smoked this season.

Is it 40”? No. But it’s like day 3 now of these long range models showing snow event potential going forward as moisture increases into marginally cold air.

Its not a tulip pattern, that’s for sure.

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14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It would be more elevation dependent but honestly, whenever the models have signaled these super wet and cold long range patterns in NNE, someone has gotten smoked this season.

Is it 40”? No. But it’s like day 3 now of these long range models showing snow event potential going forward as moisture increases into marginally cold air.

Its not a tulip pattern, that’s for sure.

Base building well into early April.  The locals will be in heaven when you close that third week of April.   It’s going to take a lot of torches to melt that out.  Looking forward to jet laps in May.

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4 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Base building well into early April.  The locals will be in heaven when you close that third week of April.   It’s going to take a lot of torches to melt that out.  Looking forward to jet laps in May.

Ha yeah people already from other mountains keep asking if we close the 3rd Sunday in April so they can come skin the playground.  As usual, probably close with deepest Mansfield stake depths of season.

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25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It would be more elevation dependent but honestly, whenever the models have signaled these super wet and cold long range patterns in NNE, someone has gotten smoked this season.

Is it 40”? No. But it’s like day 3 now of these long range models showing snow event potential going forward as moisture increases into marginally cold air.

Its not a tulip pattern, that’s for sure.

NNE elevations are getting smoked and probably CNE as well thou the elevation needed will most likely be higher than what the seasonal gradient has been

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9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

NNE elevations are getting smoked and probably CNE as well thou the elevation needed will most likely be higher than what the seasonal gradient has been

Winter season starts at elevation and ends there too, Pretty typical.

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Winter season starts at elevation and ends there too, Pretty typical.

Yeah, it's climo.  First day of spring here.  Grabbed this shot just after 7pm (sunset now after 7!) on our way to get groceries at Shaws.

Would be very fun if the Mansfield Stake tops 100" of depth after worries in beginning of February that winter may have peaked or been done.  Not going to lie, it was looking bleak there. Been a fun stretch to be honest.  If it continues for another few weeks somehow, this would be a great comeback winter.

One more large QPF rich snow event would do it.  Not a gloat; we know not many actually care on the forum.  Don't blame anyone either, all we can do is just give observations of our own local areas.

Might be some potential coming up.  Maybe not, but it seems CNE/NNE is in the game.  Maybe it lucks out underneath and SNE gets some wound up blue bomb instead.  It is cut-off season.

337134103_1456418124890496_6032403180011

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, it's climo.  First day of spring here.  Grabbed this shot just after 7pm (sunset now after 7!) on our way to get groceries at Shaws.

Would be very fun if the Mansfield Stake tops 100" after worries in beginning of February that winter may have peaked or been done.  Not going to lie, it was looking bleak there. Been a fun stretch to be honest.  If it continues for another few weeks somehow, this would be a great comeback winter.  One more large QPF rich snow event would do it.

Might be some potential coming up.  Maybe not, but it seems CNE/NNE is in the game.  Who knows, maybe it lucks out and SNE gets some wound up blue bomb instead.  It is cut-off season.

337134103_1456418124890496_6032403180011

Looks like the game is still on for some, I think your area should get it done as well as the other elevations in the Northeast, Been some great stretches where all the snow has fallen, Been feast or famine actually, Odd winter, This one is going to go down as a back loaded winter one for sure after looking quite bleak as you mention, Even here in the coastal plain, We will finish above normal even if no other flakes fall.

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Saturday into early Sunday...

This will be our next opportunity for potentially impactful wintry
weather. A trough will lift from the Southern Plains late on Friday
into the central/eastern Great Lakes by late Saturday. The trough
lifts through northern New England by late Sunday. A primary low
lifts into the central/eastern Great Lakes Saturday afternoon while
a secondary low develops over the south coast before lifting into
the Gulf Maine early on Sunday.

Main change to the forecast at this point was to bring down temps,
especially across the interior. Ensemble and deterministic guidance
featuring a cold air damming signal setting up as a blocking high
will be in place over Quebec. Given we are talking Day 5+ have
leaned more heavily on ensemble guidance at this point. Signals
showing up in the EPS/GEFS and GEPS with modest probabilities (40-80
percent) of 10:1 SLR 24 hr snowfall AOA 3 inches and even some low
probabilities (10-30 percent) of 24 hr snow AOA 6 inches. At this
point risk appears highest across the Berkshires/Worcester Hills and
a cold rain elsewhere. There could even be some wintry mix in there
as warmer air surges in late aloft, but for now have kept the
forecast rain/snow. Other potential crux in the forecast is how
quickly a dry slot pushes into our region especially with the mid
level low being to the NW of our area. Stay tuned especially if
you`ve got travel plans.
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9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, it's climo.  First day of spring here.  Grabbed this shot just after 7pm (sunset now after 7!) on our way to get groceries at Shaws.

Would be very fun if the Mansfield Stake tops 100" of depth after worries in beginning of February that winter may have peaked or been done.  Not going to lie, it was looking bleak there. Been a fun stretch to be honest.  If it continues for another few weeks somehow, this would be a great comeback winter.

One more large QPF rich snow event would do it.  Not a gloat; we know not many actually care on the forum.  Don't blame anyone either, all we can do is just give observations of our own local areas.

Might be some potential coming up.  Maybe not, but it seems CNE/NNE is in the game.  Maybe it lucks out underneath and SNE gets some wound up blue bomb instead.  It is cut-off season.

337134103_1456418124890496_6032403180011

Honest post.

Great pic.

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I learned that a winter of 32.5-33.5 F snow And putrid 925’s doesn’t accumulate well on the CP the majority of times , even if every clown map shows it inside 48 hours . Most times it doesn’t work out , sure there are exceptions . Just I wont forecast counting on them  , even when the weenie hoopla reaches a fever pitch as the clown maps roll in one after another and everyone cries when you forecast lower .

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Remember to always take the over in spring on sunny days and no vegetation 

What about Uconn players livin' it up too much in Vegas prior to game time this week? 
Number of Uconn starters puking all night after an evening of debauchery at the Crazy Horse ...Over/ Under = 3 

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