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March 2023 Obs/Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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52 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Hopefully right into a cool wet summer, I’ve had enough of the past three summer dust bowls 

2020  and 2022 yes, but 2021 was wet (especially down in SNE but even up north).

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Checking the snowfall at Pinkham Notch on xmACIS which has data back to 1930 (thanks, Joe). Data isn't perfect but is pretty good. Their highest year was 1968-1969 with 323" which may never be touched including 160" from Feb 4 to March 5. 

This year was BN through January, on Jan 21 it was at 52" (9" BN). Since then, ~150" has brought it to 8th overall, and 4th highest for this day. If the models are to be believed, it will be third overall within the next couple of weeks, trailing only '69 an '58. You wouldn't know it 100 miles south, but they're having a snowy winter up there even if it's warm. Tucks might ski well into May this year!

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still dealing with a lack of cold in the lower troposphere ... I bias playing out like an unrelenting theme, all year long and now into early spring ... I don't seen that as having changed.

we're not even seeing terrible 500 (ml) mb evolutions for the journey, either. but when the troughs clear the Appalachia cordillera, and 'trigger' coastal redevelopment ...all Miller B's are trying to close off new sfc lows really inside warm sectors. It's hard to get ptype situated the way the snow mongers want for one, but for another.... you don't get very strong deepening within the lower troposphere, when cold is modest and the b-c walls are missing --> which then keeps the hyrdostatic heights elevated for the loss of dynamics --> less feed-backs and that's the ball games.

What is interesting ( for those not pissed off first ..heh) is that we keep seeing this result as a correction from extended and mid range <-- to shorter range.   The longer terms synopsis are almost always colder ... whereby the models are correcting milder and/or we are verifying routinely milder than outlooks. 

these gigs in coming ... kind of reminds me of the Dec twins of '96 ( the 2nd of which was the Cantore thundersnow)... Those were moderate potency total wave spacers that over-achieved ... and brought something like 15 to 20" across a 36 hour span to the interior.  Dec 6-9th that year. Not so much as analog, but just the short duration in a fast -like flow.  This time?  same pop-pop, however... cold is putrid.  Yeah...it's spring so what do we expect and all that... but it's been that same "putrocity" since last autumn.

We have a subtle index -related signal through the period.   The actuals/dailies of the charts look more interesting, however. It appears the blocking influence is sneaking in between the index domain in where they are positioning geographically... so the PNA is showing a modest rise, and the NAO a modest descent... Yet the whole side of the hemisphere is modeled with an unusually suppressed polar jet.  It's like 'hiding' the potential there.   A potential that may be realized as cold rain if these same plaguing oddities are integrating into the setups.

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

6-7” puts me right on 100”. 

Same here.  I'm around 92".   A couple of interesting tidbits.  I have not yet hit 50F this year!  I thought we might do it today but at 1:45pm I seem stuck at around 47F. Hard to believe with so much warm air just south of here. I attached my Davis weather station graph.  A few 49s but no 50F.  CAD really helps, and great snow retention too.  I have  had near total snow cover since our Dec storm that gave me 19".  We had errands down your way Brian and there is a huge difference in snow cover in just the 20 mile drive south.  Finally, we had our first grass to appear on our South slopes yesterday.  The deer were right on it last evening.

deer2.jpg

temperature.jpg

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

N Maine looks primed for more crushage. 

I mean you only need to look at any model from last 3 days and these late developers favor Maine . They all bury N Maine . N Maine Especially over next week then down into foothills 28’th . On Thursday they are basically only place that is Snow .

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