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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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48 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You've been preparing ppl since October tho with your essays and journal notes. Nobody is surprised.

And how often has it snowed?  There are some others who are saying nothing but positive things every model run all winter no matter how bad it actually looks. They haven’t seen a long range prog they haven’t said was hopeful yet.  I haven’t complained about that ridiculousness. That’s fine.  But if there is room for that then there should be room for realism also imo. 
 

I do think we have a legit chance to get some snow in March, been saying that for a month now, and it wouldn’t shock me if this threat managed some snow in the northern portions of this sub, but it’s still a long shot.  When a higher probability threat shows up I’ll be optimistic.  I haven’t identified a discreet one yet beyond just a general window I expect for something to pop up. You know from the past I’m not a deb when I actually think it’s going to snow. I’m just not a smoke blower when I don’t. 

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I think this looks good. 50/50 low backbuilds. Timing is right as that piece of energy in the west moves to the east coast as the -NAO lifts out. 

f228.thumb.gif.8ebc5632ac80b0e05544e5aeea98aee9.gif

Remember, -PNA by itself is more wetter than warmer(net temps/precip in March favors -PNA vs +PNA). So a north-oriented -PNA veering into -EPO does good. We just don't need that Aleutian high to completely trend south: which happens sometimes after on models you mix warmer air in the northern latitude levels (trend). 

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49 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean for me I was never fully invested and it did concern me a bit how rock steady the GFS was with it's solution. I was out once the 18z eps ticked north yesterday...and given the pattern ya kinda knew it would be tough after that.

You’ve been grounded with this imo. I wasn’t criticizing you.  For me the red flag wasn’t any one model run. Which model was showing what is irrelevant. It’s that the temps were so marginal and the mean boundary location is still to our NW during the period in question meaning we need a lot of factors to all go perfectly. There is just way more fail scenarios than win in that background state.  

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

At least we had yesterday.  I haven’t been in that good a mood in a while looking at the models even though we knew what was to come.  9 months until Nov…it’s practically here!

And at least we have the severe wx season to keep us busy until we cross the spring predictability barrier for next year’s enso state. 

And if by then we don’t like what we see for next year, then plan a winter vacation elsewhere.

it’s what I’d do. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

And how often has it snowed?  There are some others who are saying nothing but positive things every model run all winter no matter how bad it actually looks. They haven’t seen a long range prog they haven’t said was hopeful yet.  I haven’t complained about that ridiculousness. That’s fine.  But if there is room for that then there should be room for realism also imo. 
 

I do think we have a legit chance to get some snow in March, been saying that for a month now, and it wouldn’t shock me if this threat managed some snow in the northern portions of this sub, but it’s still a long shot.  When a higher probability threat shows up I’ll be optimistic.  I haven’t identified a discreet one yet behind a general window I expect for something to pop up. You know from the past I’m not a deb when I actually think it’s going to snow. I’m just not a smoke blower when I don’t. 

Very true...and I know you typically aren't a deb, though at times quite snarky this winter.  Which I totally get, given how utterly frustrating it has been.  I don't think anyone with any sense of reason expected a "great" winter this year by any means.  But I really don't think anyone, even the most pessimistic, thought it would be this devoid of anything.  Like essentially wall-to-wall.  The anti 2013-14 so to speak!  We've had one 0.5" snow early morning on February 1 (where I'm at, anyhow) that was gone before noon...well, OK, there was like 15 min. of some flurries at the start of that Arctic blast over Christmas weekend and a bit of snow TV yesterday.  And it's not just the paucity of snow, it's also just how extremely warm it's been (other than most of December being a bit below normal, enhanced by Christmas weekend).  When you have a +7 temperature departure for January and February (just looking at DCA for reference, but pretty much the same most everywhere here), you're really hard pressed to get anything.  Not like we've been cold and dry or anything like that.

So assuming we don't really get anything the rest of this season, offhand, what would you rank this winter in terms of futility or near-shutout?  Say, compared to 2001-02, 2011-12, or 2019-20 for instance?  In terms of warmth and lack of snow?

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“Remember when the gfs caved but was right that one time but it was 84 hours but it was on an island but it was 4 days but it’s not Dr. No but maybe it caved because it was on an island and I’ve noticed gfs caves when euro caves to gem and when it’s overamped it caves right where we want it south, but I noticed that’s only when the euro caves and the gem caves and when it’s 118 hours out and the NW trend caves but if it’s anything like the last storm where it caves on it’s own then maybe it caves less but maybe I jinxed it and it is caving because euro caved but only when unmet caves and…”

I love you all, but can you please stop posting different versions of this? 

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1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Very true...and I know you typically aren't a deb, though at times quite snarky this winter.  Which I totally get, given how utterly frustrating it has been.  I don't think anyone with any sense of reason expected a "great" winter this year by any means.  But I really don't think anyone, even the most pessimistic, thought it would be this devoid of anything.  Like essentially wall-to-wall.  The anti 2013-14 so to speak!  We've had one 0.5" snow early morning on February 1 (where I'm at, anyhow) that was gone before noon...well, OK, there was like 15 min. of some flurries at the start of that Arctic blast over Christmas weekend and a bit of snow TV yesterday.  And it's not just the paucity of snow, it's also just how extremely warm it's been (other than most of December being a bit below normal, enhanced by Christmas weekend).  When you have a +7 temperature departure for January and February (just looking at DCA for reference, but pretty much the same most everywhere here), you're really hard pressed to get anything.  Not like we've been cold and dry or anything like that.

So assuming we don't really get anything the rest of this season, offhand, what would you rank this winter in terms of futility or near-shutout?  Say, compared to 2001-02, 2011-12, or 2019-20 for instance?  In terms of warmth and lack of snow?

Futility thread is there for a reason lol

eta:  Not completely giving up on this storm, but I do agree the writing is on the wall most likely.  Let’s see if CAPE’s/Stormchaser Chuck’s/PSU’s mid month period works out.  That combo of people is like the Euro/Icon/GFS all agreeing on a snow threat, so it is probably our best chance to salvage this craphole of a winter!

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1 minute ago, mdhokie said:

Doug K nailed this winter. Everyone was bashing him too.

That's fair, to a point.  Sure, looks like he nailed how little snow and all that we got.  But let's be realistic.  Even knowing it was looking like a dud year, it's a bit much to go to the far extreme in a winter forecast made back late last fall.  So an element of ribbing or "bashing" wasn't that out of line at the time, especially in an area where just one moderate event can make the winter.  That would be like people saying we're in for record snow and lots of HECS events before 2009-10 began.  Even knowing that looked like a pretty big winter going in, nobody was going to go to the high end extreme in that case.

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19 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

“Remember when the gfs caved but was right that one time but it was 84 hours but it was on an island but it was 4 days but it’s not Dr. No but maybe it caved because it was on an island and I’ve noticed gfs caves when euro caves to gem and when it’s overamped it caves right where we want it south, but I noticed that’s only when the euro caves and the gem caves and when it’s 118 hours out and the NW trend caves but if it’s anything like the last storm where it caves on it’s own then maybe it caves less but maybe I jinxed it and it is caving because euro caved but only when unmet caves and…”

I love you all, but can you please stop posting different versions of this? 

Lots of caves there...we ought to be spelunking!!!

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26 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Futility thread is there for a reason lol

eta:  Not completely giving up on this storm, but I do agree the writing is on the wall most likely.  Let’s see if CAPE’s/Stormchaser Chuck’s/PSU’s mid month period works out.  That combo of people  is like the Euro/Icon/GFS all agreeing on a snow threat, so it is probably our best chance to salvage this craphole of a winter!

I know...and I'm really not giving up on things completely either just yet, at least through about mid-March.  BTW...I copied my previous reply to you to the Banter thread, but I'm sorry if I misconstrued your comment to me about the futility thread as somehow telling me to stop complaining (which I wasn't trying to do, but anyhow).

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

The SE ridge has corrected to be stronger than progged in the medium range ALL winter. There’s no reason to expect that to change. And it’s happening again for Friday. 

Persistence in this case has been ongoing for the last several years. The majority of storms have been either coastal huggers,  inland runners or simply cutters. 

The Atlantic is not our friend , neither is the Pac.  Warm SSTs and feedback has reinforced the SE ridge. It will take an anomalous well timed event to achieve snowfall in our region. HM had mentioned that the progression of this block is similiar to 2018, however, in 2018 the airmass in the North America's source region was colder. I imagine we get one last chance mid month.     

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ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-epo-box-7412800.thumb.png.11a5f07d2110b27507624f8bf93e5cea.png

The 4th instance of a massive EPO tank so far this cold season. 1st was mid November, 2nd was mid December, 3rd was late January, and the 4th is now taking place in early March, so a return period of 30-45 days or so. Interestingly, these events have had less of a correlation w/ persistent cold in the East as the winter has gone on. Highlights the importance of the PNA, these events don't matter all too much if the west coast trough wants to dig into Baja. 

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23 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS….good news is we don’t have to throw in the towel until next winter just yet….hopefully a discreet threat will appear by the end of next weekend

Every single snow map projection this year and last year, have been totally useless. They have almost zero value based on what has fallen. Most times they simply show  climo snowfall and the other times they are grossly incorrect. 

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7 minutes ago, frd said:

Persistence in this case has been ongoing for the last several years. The majority of storms have been either coastal huggers,  inland runners or simply cutters. 

The Atlantic is not our friend , neither is the Pac.  Warm SSTs and feedback has reinforced the SE ridge. It will take an anomalous well timed event to achieve snowfall in our region. HM had mentioned that the progression of this block is similiar to 2018, however, in 2018 the airmass in the North America's source region was colder. I imagine we get one last chance mid month.     

There was one significant threat in March 2018 around the 15th that got suppressed before the storm we got around the 20th. Maybe that is the one that would hit this time. I think we get opportunities. We will still need some luck. Just less than what we were facing all winter until now imo. 

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Let me soften the low there is no Next.  The 90s have returned to Florida under the SER and the SER will only get stronger.  The heat building up to our south is pretty impressive both on the land and in the water.  Also, to take note it has not rained down in Florida in weeks. 

 

Onwards to Spring and Summer.  

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6 minutes ago, frd said:

Every single snow map projection this year and last year, have been totally useless. They have almost zero value based on what has fallen. Most times they simply show  climo snowfall and the other times they are grossly incorrect. 

Yeah, we are all missing 30-50” inches vs those ensemble maps verbatim this year

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9 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-epo-box-7412800.thumb.png.11a5f07d2110b27507624f8bf93e5cea.png

The 4th instance of a massive EPO tank so far this cold season. 1st was mid November, 2nd was mid December, 3rd was late January, and the 4th is now taking place in early March, so a return period of 30-45 days or so. Interestingly, these events have had less of a correlation w/ persistent cold in the East as the winter has gone on. Highlights the importance of the PNA, these events don't matter all too much if the west coast trough wants to dig into Baja. 

 

9 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-epo-box-7412800.thumb.png.11a5f07d2110b27507624f8bf93e5cea.png

The 4th instance of a massive EPO tank so far this cold season. 1st was mid November, 2nd was mid December, 3rd was late January, and the 4th is now taking place in early March, so a return period of 30-45 days or so. Interestingly, these events have had less of a correlation w/ persistent cold in the East as the winter has gone on. Highlights the importance of the PNA, these events don't matter all too much if the west coast trough wants to dig into Baja. 

True but this time we also get a strongly negative WPO.  Hopefully that helps.

FAB3ED3C-239D-4CB8-94B5-81333BEECCBE.png

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5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-epo-box-7412800.thumb.png.11a5f07d2110b27507624f8bf93e5cea.png

The 4th instance of a massive EPO tank so far this cold season. 1st was mid November, 2nd was mid December, 3rd was late January, and the 4th is now taking place in early March, so a return period of 30-45 days or so. Interestingly, these events have had less of a correlation w/ persistent cold in the East as the winter has gone on. Highlights the importance of the PNA, these events don't matter all too much if the west coast trough wants to dig into Baja. 

Good post and point. The deepness of that western trough is a real monkeywrench. Hopefully, we can at least get a ridge over top and cut it off.

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35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You have to know how to read them. If there is a mean of 3” over 15 days but the probability of 3” is only 25% that does not mean the ensemble is predicting 3” of snow. 

I know how to read them, but okay, fair point, so multiply them by .25- still missing LOTS of snow.  There have been many, many times this winter I have been in the 80%+ probability zone for more than an inch and the 50% to 90% probability zone for more than 3 inches.  I have 1.5” of snow this winter with another 1-2” of sleet.  They never verify this winter, even when showing high probabilities. They have been egregiously useless this winter wrt snowfall, full stop.

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