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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

I salute those who are legitimately taking this all seriously still and very closely tracking whatever it is that you are tracking. The true definition of insanity. True gluttons for punishment. It's truly impressive.

hey, some people are interested in the weather. I've taken most of the negative emotions out of the whole thing. only positivity

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18 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Personally I don't mind it TOO much--it's the atmospheric trolling (that is, getting a look then we couldn't get all winter) that is rather annoying, haha

But why assume that would work anyways. We got the same pattern for our coldest snowiest climo period just 2 years ago and it was mostly a fail anyways.
81DF4EE3-5898-486E-85D1-6753D573F778.gif.fdfb5ef24de09296315823e9c7c431c2.gif

The cities got one fairly minor mixed event and a few perfect track rainstorms.  

18 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

The lower heights over the Aleutians is my guess as to what saved us? Brings the source air directly from the Arctic. You are far more educated about this stuff than I am. But that is just my guess. 

Yes that definitely helped. But there are some other examples of snowy periods during that period without any Pacific help.  This is the h5 from 6 snowy winters during the last -pdo. 
364E0DC5-178C-4333-9C65-E399F73F7143.jpeg.dd9328d5a686f0c20b44bfe0c0efe8f3.jpeg

note the Aleutian ridge on the means. That was just a feature we had to overcome during the last -pdo.  It’s going to be there most of the time the next 30 years if the last -pdo was any indication.  If the only time we get above avg snow in the next 3 decades is on the extremely rare times we get a moderate modoki Nino we’re in for a rough ride! 

16 hours ago, 87storms said:

@psuhoffmanRegarding tropical weather, maybe what we need is an active Atlantic hurricane season to stir up the SSTs in preparation for what could be a better ENSO/base state next season.

Others are way more qualified to speculate on this. I would listen to @WxWatcher007 

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15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not gonna lie, there are indications that the AK ridging and a PNA moving towards neutral along with the decaying block that makes that 7-15th window interesting

but I know everyone is exhausted lmao so no need to elaborate as of now

I'm seeing this too and was pretty serious with my post. Patience folks.

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29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But why assume that would work anyways. We got the same pattern for our coldest snowiest climo period just 2 years ago and it was mostly a fail anyways.
81DF4EE3-5898-486E-85D1-6753D573F778.gif.fdfb5ef24de09296315823e9c7c431c2.gif

The cities got one fairly minor mixed event and a few perfect track rainstorms.  

Yeah I didn't really mean that literally. Now tbh, I'm still learning about longwave maps and such, so I saw blue over us and orange north of us and thought "hey a better look!" But I was speaking more in general though--2018 was more of what I had in mind. When we had all that blocking 3 weeks too late!

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This window might be conducive for a wave ejecting out of the SW to track further southeastward towards the east coast as the Aleutian ridge becomes flatter and stretched- allowing for the trough to shift eastward some instead of being dug in along the west coast. The NA look is favorable. The op run went there, but only a weak signal on the mean at this point. 

1677844800-ZU5QVNJftE4.png

 

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@CAPE something interesting to consider as we head into a March where the NAO looks to be cooperative... during the last -PDO cycle from the 1940s through the 1970s we averaged a LOT more snow in March than recently.  The avg during that period at BWI was 5" but more importantly was the frequency of absolute monster months and storms being in March.  There were definitely more total shutout March months than Jan/Feb even back then...but 7 times BWI had a double digit March month during that last -PDO cycle.  And several more times got close with 7-9" March months.  There were even two 20" March months...which is something we rarely even get in January or February frankly.  

Bringing this up because there are a lot of people that seem to want to toss December and March now.  Problem is...the same thing I just said about March applies to December...during that last PDO cycle we had quite a few monster Decembers also... if you start acting like we can't get Dec or March snow and tossing those months...well you are tossing what was a big portion of our snow climo during the last -PDO cycle.  If we do get blocking, even in March, we need to be able to take advantage of it.  We used to be able to.  March 1941, 1942, 1943, 1952, 1956, 1958, 1960, 1962, 1964, 1969, 1976 and 1980 were the snowiest months of the whole winter in many places in our region.  Those winter's wouldn't have been nearly the same if we just tossed March.  March can, and has to be, a very snowy month sometimes if we want to maintain anything close to our "normal" snow climo in this -PDO cycle.  

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE something interesting to consider as we head into a March where the NAO looks to be cooperative... during the last -PDO cycle from the 1940s through the 1970s we averaged a LOT more snow in March than recently.  The avg during that period at BWI was 5" but more importantly was the frequency of absolute monster months and storms being in March.  There were definitely more total shutout March months than Jan/Feb even back then...but 7 times BWI had a double digit March month during that last -PDO cycle.  And several more times got close with 7-9" March months.  There were even two 20" March months...which is something we rarely even get in January or February frankly.  

Bringing this up because there are a lot of people that seem to want to toss December and March now.  Problem is...the same thing I just said about March applies to December...during that last PDO cycle we had quite a few monster Decembers also... if you start acting like we can't get Dec or March snow and tossing those months...well you are tossing what was a big portion of our snow climo during the last -PDO cycle.  If we do get blocking, even in March, we need to be able to take advantage of it.  We used to be able to.  March 1941, 1942, 1943, 1952, 1956, 1958, 1960, 1962, 1964, 1969, 1976 and 1980 were the snowiest months of the whole winter in many places in our region.  Those winter's wouldn't have been nearly the same if we just tossed March.  March can, and has to be, a very snowy month sometimes if we want to maintain anything close to our "normal" snow climo in this -PDO cycle.  

We cant afford to toss anything lol. March snow counts, and it is often a better month than December. People hate the quick melting I guess. We can do that efficiently in any month.

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