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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

My no expert take is that the beginning of our window has shifted from the 9th to the 11-12th timeframe.  it would be nice to see that window hold over the next few days and not slip too much further.  We are running out of time…

Yeah, that's the problem. Every shift back a day or two hurts a lot more right now than January or February. We can live with the slight shifts back if we hit immediately, but the problem is it's probably going to take us a few chances to get a hit. We can definitely get a good snowstorm into the third week of March, but I have trouble remembering something that hit after like the 21st. I remember a good, very heavy, wet snow that hit in March of 1999 I believe and I think that one hit pretty late. I think I got like 6-10 or something from that.

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8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

7 day height means.  If we are not tracking something by the end of next work week, our Hail Mary play is in trouble.

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have your doctors tried prescribing different anxiety pills?

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7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah, that's the problem. Every shift back a day or two hurts a lot more right now than January or February. We can live with the slight shifts back if we hit immediately, but the problem is it's probably going to take us a few chances to get a hit. We can definitely get a good snowstorm into the third week of March, but I have trouble remembering something that hit after like the 21st. I remember a good, very heavy, wet snow that hit in March of 1999 I believe and I think that one hit pretty late. I think I got like 6-10 or something from that.

lol there was never a window on March 9. Thats when the pattern change was suppose to start. You are not going to get a snowstorm the same day as a pattern change

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35 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

You’ll still looking for snow huh? lol. I put locks on my shit blinds at this point. 

with due respect, if you're out... then get out of the thread. let others keep tracking if they so choose. 

thanks :) 

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Th good news is that we have a chance.  The teleconnections, MJO, and stratwarm are looking good…but we need some luck. I am being a realist.  Give us a specific threat inside 10 days that is being depicted by the 3 global models and then I will jump full in. Otherwise, in the spirit of Lent, call me the Doubting Thomas.

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29 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol there was never a window on March 9. Thats when the pattern change was suppose to start. You are not going to get a snowstorm the same day as a pattern change

Yep, what usually happens with a pattern change going into our favor is a storm that cuts and draws cold air in, and the -nao and 50/50 locks it in long enough for a few attempts at a hit. 

Biggest failure risk imo is not suppression, it’s that the SER/W Trough tries to run the clock out on us. 

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Look at it from the perspective that most of us stayed engaged all winter despite being in a warm shutout post December. We still followed the low probability thread the needle threats that ultimately had little to no chance of succeeding. Now we actually might get the chessboard with the pieces where we want them, why not finish the game? Best look since December, sure it doesn’t guarantee anything, but at least the probabilities of a favorable outcome are increased again for the last time this season.

Hoping for one solid east coast hit here, and would be thrilled to see the DC area score. You guys are certainly due. 

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1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

hey, based on what I’ve seen, the EPS/GEPS are on the right track and the GEFS is slowly caving. the GEFS made a bigggg move last night towards them

 Foot on the pedal, never ever false metal
Engine running hotter than a boiling kettle
My job ain't a job, it's a damn good time
City to city, I'm running my rhymes!

No sleep till! 
 

Brooklyn—you got me all the hell in now. Reel it in!! :lol:

 

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30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

hey, based on what I’ve seen, the EPS/GEPS are on the right track and the GEFS is slowly caving. the GEFS made a bigggg move last night towards them

 The trend toward a stronger and longer -AO period during the first half of this month (likely due to the lagged effects of a very weak and displaced SPV) continues with today's 0Z update:

0Z GEFS based AO forecasts for March 6th:

2/26 run: -0.1

2/27 run: -0.5

2/28 run: -1.3

3/1 run: -1.5

3/2 run: -1.9

 

 For March 10th:

2/28 run: 0.0

3/1 run: -0.9

3/2 run: -2.0

 Also, the EPS has continued its downward trend of the AO since its 0Z 2/27 run.

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