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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But wait a minute...Remember last month when the GFS was totally on it's own showing a favorable solution for literally DAYS before finally folding? That's why I'm not sure how much to trust it right now, lol

If true of what you said, we have truly turned a page in this horrid winter.  I do have hope right now.

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17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But wait a minute...Remember last month when the GFS was totally on it's own showing a favorable solution for literally DAYS before finally folding? That's why I'm not sure how much to trust it right now, lol

Corrections to the North and West seem typical. Corrections to the south and east are pretty rare. I am pessimistic and hope I am wrong. 

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8 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Corrections to the North and West seem typical. Corrections to the south and east are pretty rare. I am pessimistic and hope I am wrong. 

Oh yeah I hear ya. Not saying it def is wrong...just that the track record of it vs. the world hasn't been great this winter. But then again we can't trust anything to be good this winter...so there is that, lol

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6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Corrections to the North and West seem typical. Corrections to the south and east are pretty rare. I am pessimistic and hope I am wrong. 

Iirc from past experience, S and E corrections tend to occur more often when developing blocking up top is either being modeled too weak or incorrectly wrt timing (too slow developing on guidance vs reality). I think this could be one of those times where S and E corrections have increased possibility. Now during Archambault events where blocking is waning or the NAO is relaxing, we tend to see the N and W corrections more frequently. Again, my thinking may be wrong but this is how I remember it from my experiences.

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That high is what's kicking the low north. Low needs to be in front or at the same time.

Chicken vs egg. With a better Atlantic, maybe it wouldn’t nudge the system as far north. The pattern issues (for snow) are shown by how much we warmed up today after the wintry weather yesterday and how mild it’s been (and will be this week). The cold/blocking up top has just been too transient all season long, but maybe we can get this storm to at least include a changeover instead of a wall to wall rainer.
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46 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But wait a minute...Remember last month when the GFS was totally on its own showing a favorable solution for literally DAYS before finally folding? That's why I'm not sure how much to trust it right now, lol

There is some validity to this but keep in mind an outlier solution has a way better chance of scoring a coup when it’s on the side of typical climo then when it’s showing the more anomalous scenario. 

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