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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That's what I posted above. I mean it isnt a fail proof setup, nothing is. But I would take this anywday vs an amped cutter in Pittsburgh at this range.

I get what you’re saying and you’re right the Gfs and icon arrive at their solutions in a different way. But there is a common thread. The thermal boundary is too far NW.   That allows the Gfs to amp up and cut and allows the Ivon to get too far NW before getting shunted east.  So although I get the point you’re making I think the pessimism is also warranted because we can see how even with a more suppressed solution we can still fail because the thermals aren’t what we need. 

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9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That's what I posted above. I mean it isnt a fail proof setup, nothing is. But I would take this anywday vs an amped cutter in Pittsburgh at this range.

If I lived in PA or NY I would take it too.  As depicted it’s worse than last two ICON runs for majority here.  You know our luck in the MA with miller B

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I get what you’re saying and you’re right the Gfs and icon arrive at their solutions in a different way. But there is a common thread. The thermal boundary is too far NW.   That allows the Gfs to amp up and cut and allows the Ivon to get too far NW before getting shunted east.  So although I get the point you’re making I think the pessimism is also warranted because we can see how even with a more suppressed solution we can still fail because the thermals aren’t what we need. 

Agree with ALL of this. Doing my best to keep optimism and morale high while there is still some semblance of a chance. 

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

If I lived in PA or NY I would take it too.  As depicted it’s worse than last two ICON runs for majority here.  You know our luck in the MA with miller B

If this goes the way you noted I will start limiting my posts in this sub for obvious reasons...respect being first. But there is still hope for 40S. Don't give up the ship yet.

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If this goes the way you noted I will start limiting my posts in this sub for obvious reasons...respect being first. But there is still hope for 40S. Don't give up the ship yet.

Ok but it has nothing to do with you.  I enjoy your posts.  But there are stark differences between your area and mine as you know.  Your enthusiasm is appreciated but just not always relevant to many in these set ups.  

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Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

we're going to have to find out if the GFS is on crack or not pretty soon. it's just so different from everything else

Yeah, the 12z euro will be very interesting to see. I’ve given up on the idea of an all snow event here, but still holding out some hope for a rain to snow scenario.

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