StormyClearweather Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That's what I posted above. I mean it isnt a fail proof setup, nothing is. But I would take this anywday vs an amped cutter in Pittsburgh at this range. This is helpful. For mostly ignorant people like me, the lack of digital blue=cave to GFS, even if that's not what's really happening. But if the GFS shows digital blue at 12Z, then I'll immediately become terrified snow won't happen because GFS... even though I'm presently terrified because the GFS is not showing digital blue. Scary part? I'm not even really kidding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: You’re definitely the best on here now at diagnosing this. Wish @showmethesnow would still post his morning briefings. But to summarize why those details are hard to resolve and could take longer than usual to get to the final solutions, there are too many waves involved in this scenario. And the wave breaking from each impacts both the high latitude configuration and the confluence but also the wave spacing under it. It’s asking a lot of guidance to be dead on balls accurate with all these waves in close proximity but that’s what’s necessary in order to get the exact right track correct on our potential storm. I’ve never expected this to be resolved at long leads given the setup. Yes it is definitely 'busy' in the NS, and subtle differences in wave timing/interactions are going to potentially make big differences in the outcome. It is almost always the case that the one result we want requires so much to go right with these wave interactions. As you often say, we need some luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Hey everyone the rain on the ICON isn’t as bad as the rain on the Gfs because the storm tracks on a different trajectory. Win!!!! 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 GFS is going to be diff...maybe a tick S and E at the very least. Changes with the lobe over SE Canada at 84 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That's what I posted above. I mean it isnt a fail proof setup, nothing is. But I would take this anywday vs an amped cutter in Pittsburgh at this range. I get what you’re saying and you’re right the Gfs and icon arrive at their solutions in a different way. But there is a common thread. The thermal boundary is too far NW. That allows the Gfs to amp up and cut and allows the Ivon to get too far NW before getting shunted east. So although I get the point you’re making I think the pessimism is also warranted because we can see how even with a more suppressed solution we can still fail because the thermals aren’t what we need. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 ok, out to 105..heights are slightly lower out in front so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That's what I posted above. I mean it isnt a fail proof setup, nothing is. But I would take this anywday vs an amped cutter in Pittsburgh at this range. If I lived in PA or NY I would take it too. As depicted it’s worse than last two ICON runs for majority here. You know our luck in the MA with miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I get what you’re saying and you’re right the Gfs and icon arrive at their solutions in a different way. But there is a common thread. The thermal boundary is too far NW. That allows the Gfs to amp up and cut and allows the Ivon to get too far NW before getting shunted east. So although I get the point you’re making I think the pessimism is also warranted because we can see how even with a more suppressed solution we can still fail because the thermals aren’t what we need. Agree with ALL of this. Doing my best to keep optimism and morale high while there is still some semblance of a chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: If I lived in PA or NY I would take it too. As depicted it’s worse than last two ICON runs for majority here. You know our luck in the MA with miller B If this goes the way you noted I will start limiting my posts in this sub for obvious reasons...respect being first. But there is still hope for 40S. Don't give up the ship yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Well, so far at 120 looks like more of the same. Hopefully I'm wrong and jumping the gun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Yeah, more of the same on the GFS. Low now over IN/IL border, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, so far at 120 looks like more of the same. Hopefully I'm wrong and jumping the gun Higher heights compared to 0Z Euro at same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Just now, stormtracker said: Well, so far at 120 looks like more of the same. Hopefully I'm wrong and jumping the gun Same or not, (imo) it's too mild out ahead of this system. It would be a cold chasing precip setup...which ain't ideal in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Well, so far at 120 looks like more of the same. Hopefully I'm wrong and jumping the gun Its even warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, more of the same on the GFS. Low now over IN/IL border, lol Yep. After 108 there was less separation between NS and the Southern vort. Went to shit after 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 On to the CMC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 GFS is a negatively tilted bowling ball of a low. Someone is going to get rocked to the northwest of that thing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 We just can’t win. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 we're going to have to find out if the GFS is on crack or not pretty soon. it's just so different from everything else 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Higher heights compared to 0Z Euro at same time. Big difference with the stream separation around Montana. Euro also keeps that vort near Maine helping confluence a tiny bit. Gfs zips it into the 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If this goes the way you noted I will start limiting my posts in this sub for obvious reasons...respect being first. But there is still hope for 40S. Don't give up the ship yet. Ok but it has nothing to do with you. I enjoy your posts. But there are stark differences between your area and mine as you know. Your enthusiasm is appreciated but just not always relevant to many in these set ups. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: we're going to have to find out if the GFS is on crack or not pretty soon. it's just so different from everything else Yeah, the 12z euro will be very interesting to see. I’ve given up on the idea of an all snow event here, but still holding out some hope for a rain to snow scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 It's amazing to me that the GFS was on an island last night with a far north track and now all other globals are trending to it. If it was reversed would the other globals be trending to it? lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Even the Euro has generally ticked north with the H5 low. That trend needs to stop even on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, the 12z euro will be very interesting to see. I’ve given up on the idea of an all snow event here, but still holding out some hope for a rain to snow scenario. I miss the days when we had snow to rain lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 This may mean the Severe Thread needs some attention. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 I know it's shocking but appears the cmc is heading the wrong way also. Higher heights out ahead at 90 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 The GFS is vying to be the new DR. NO and King! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 CMC standing it's ground thru 120 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Just need to shake this +EPO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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