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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Kind of sucks to see the NAO trend upward just in time for phase 8.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png

A -NAO trending towards neutral isn’t bad, especially if the numerical trend is because the blocking is retrograding west into Canada which is increasing the NAO in the east region of the NAO domain. That’s not a bad look for us. 

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5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS is at least slightly improved. more confluence and a slightly weaker vort

gfs-ens_z500a_us_fh114_trend.thumb.gif.16928a3b3496929b112d8f3b49db35c7.gif

And I see better separation between the vort and the one behind it. Maybe if this trend continues, ridging over montana can keep this vort pos tilted just a wee bit longer. It’s not much and it’s just one run, but it’s something. 

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12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And I see better separation between the vort and the one behind it. Maybe if this trend continues, ridging over montana can keep this vort pos tilted just a wee bit longer. It’s not much and it’s just one run, but it’s something. 

Agreed. And it's 5 days out so there is actually time. 

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

These are rough times, but I kinda would feel better with the GFS on our side than the Euro. *runs and hides*

But wait a minute...Remember last month when the GFS was totally on it's own showing a favorable solution for literally DAYS before finally folding? That's why I'm not sure how much to trust it right now, lol

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But wait a minute...Remember last month when the GFS was totally on it's own showing a favorable solution for literally DAYS before finally folding? That's why I'm not sure how much to trust it right now, lol

Even if the GFS is right with the track, it's probably at least 10mbs too deep with the pressure. 

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