40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Same. But, given some other atmospheric features, I did not expect to be crucified in the snow department. Yea, neither did I....but the same reason I think forecasting snowfall at a seasonal level is fun, is why most don't bother....its so unpredictable. I think its fun. You just never know....and it evens out, for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 13 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 32.6/26 Light snow has started. Big mood flakes. The Kurchera clown maps have gone wild for us up here. Of course they are overdone but still eye candy. Here are the GFS and Euro's including the potential storm early next week. Likely overdone, but def a solid stretch incoming. Going to be some good northern greens skiing to start the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i mean, you have a blocked up Atlantic that forces confluence, a -EPO to get fresh Arctic air, and a strong west-based -NAO. that type of pattern has a high ceiling for the entire NE US the change is that the trough is centered over the Plains, not the WC. that makes a huge difference I am not saying it's a bad look, obviously it's not. It does look quite different than what we have seen but it's also March 8th...gonna be tough unless you're up and in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: I am not saying it's a bad look, obviously it's not. It does look quite different than what we have seen but it's also March 8th...gonna be tough unless you're up and in Climo isn't that tough for us on 3/8....its after mid months where it is more uphill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Climo isn't that tough for us on 3/8....its after mid months where it is more uphill. mm... all years combined perhaps. Our arena this year and the antecedent/leading indicators wholesale, changes that idea a bit in my mind. These 70+ rolling warm balls through the M/A are may just be a harbinger - Or not ...just sayn' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Climo isn't that tough for us on 3/8....its after mid months where it is more uphill. Yeah I don't fear climo until after mid March usually. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: mm... all years combined perhaps. Our arena this year and the antecedent/leading indicators wholesale, changes that idea a bit in my mind. These 70+ rolling warm balls through the M/A are may just be a harbinger - Or not ...just sayn' Well, the pattern is one thing....if the block is fleeting and then we roast, then fine....but when I refer to climo, I am implicating the mean of all years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Nice tornado warning in NJ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Best looking storm we'll see all summer Was pretty intrigued yesterday for some strong thunderstorm potential today. Was shocked there wasn't even a general thunderstorm line yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: we pray. this would be amazing 360 hours 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 360 hours And we're still barely BN if at all At this rate we're going to see our 2nd tornado before we see an inch of snow down in Jersey Slightly below works further north though especially C/NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: And we're still barely BN if at all At this rate we're going to see our 2nd tornado before we see an inch of snow down in Jersey Slightly below works further north though especially C/NNE you guys always might be onto something and then you go right off the deep end. why? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 34 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 360 hours That's why he's praying lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 EPS has been hammering NNE the last few cycles....ski areas should be looking great heading into 2nd week of March. We'll see if we can finally cash in here...we haven't seen ensemble runs this snowy all season for SNE, but we obviously have less wiggle room than NNE in this pattern. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 We hope for the "He's cut!" moment before it's too late. Otherwise, it's going to be more like 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, FXWX said: Nice tornado warning in NJ! Some pretty solid damage pics showing up in the NY sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 4 hours ago, Chris12WX said: And unfortunately a likely accurate depiction. One of our very best friends was put in Indian school as a kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 this is intriguing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 For those who want a lesson on how a block can successfully work. Loop the 18z gfs and take a look at 500mb anomalies or vorticity from a NAMR point of view. What looks like something that should ram into our fannies is kept under us and redevelops. That high does not retreat but remains entrenched. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: For those who want a lesson on how a block can successfully work. Loop the 18z gfs and take a look at 500mb anomalies or vorticity from a NAMR point of view. What looks like something that should ram into our fannies is kept under us and redevelops. That high does not retreat but remains entrenched. yes, exactly. that is the type of response I’d expect. let’s hope that block gets as far W as possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: For those who want a lesson on how a block can successfully work. Loop the 18z gfs and take a look at 500mb anomalies or vorticity from a NAMR point of view. What looks like something that should ram into our fannies is kept under us and redevelops. That high does not retreat but remains entrenched. Scooter highs of yore… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: For those who want a lesson on how a block can successfully work. Loop the 18z gfs and take a look at 500mb anomalies or vorticity from a NAMR point of view. What looks like something that should ram into our fannies is kept under us and redevelops. That high does not retreat but remains entrenched. Days and days of snow. We can only dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: i mean, you have a blocked up Atlantic that forces confluence, a -EPO to get fresh Arctic air, and a strong west-based -NAO. that type of pattern has a high ceiling for the entire NE US the change is that the trough is centered over the Plains, not the WC. that makes a huge difference That’s a great pattern for the WC, Europe and maybe NNE. That’s nothing for the coast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Yeah 18z is absolutely bonkers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: 360 hours Damn. Snowman all grown up is . We need at least 1 person who believes in magic.. 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: you guys always might be onto something and then you go right off the deep end. why? I'd vote human nature... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 36° and pouring at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Same. But, given some other atmospheric features, I did not expect to be crucified in the snow department. I don’t think anyone forecast this sort of a permanent deep PNA , we would have more wiggle room down to S SNE if this -PNA was more tame in SW (not 4 standard deviation height anomalies for 3 months ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Futility back on the table?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 nice trend over the last few runs over the E US as the block ticks stronger 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Futility back on the table?? I don’t think the server ever actually cleared the dishes. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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