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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Same. But, given some other atmospheric features, I did not expect to be crucified in the snow department. 

Yea, neither did I....but the same reason I think forecasting snowfall at a seasonal level is fun, is why most don't bother....its so unpredictable. I think its fun. You just never know....and it evens out, for the most part.

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13 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

32.6/26 Light snow has started.  Big mood flakes.  

The Kurchera clown maps have gone wild for us up here.  Of course they are overdone but still eye candy. Here are the GFS and Euro's including the potential storm early next week.

 

snow.jpg

Likely overdone, but def a solid stretch incoming.  Going to be some good northern greens skiing to start the month

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13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, you have a blocked up Atlantic that forces confluence, a -EPO to get fresh Arctic air, and a strong west-based -NAO. that type of pattern has a high ceiling for the entire NE US

the change is that the trough is centered over the Plains, not the WC. that makes a huge difference

I am not saying it's a bad look, obviously it's not.  It does look quite different than what we have seen but it's also March 8th...gonna be tough unless you're up and in

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2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

I am not saying it's a bad look, obviously it's not.  It does look quite different than what we have seen but it's also March 8th...gonna be tough unless you're up and in

Climo isn't that tough for us on 3/8....its after mid months where it is more uphill.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Climo isn't that tough for us on 3/8....its after mid months where it is more uphill.

mm...  all years combined perhaps. 

Our arena this year and the antecedent/leading indicators wholesale, changes that idea a bit in my mind. These 70+ rolling warm balls through the M/A are may just be a harbinger -

Or not  :)  ...just sayn'

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm...  all years combined perhaps. 

Our arena this year and the antecedent/leading indicators wholesale, changes that idea a bit in my mind. These 70+ rolling warm balls through the M/A are may just be a harbinger -

Or not  :)  ...just sayn'

Well, the pattern is one thing....if the block is fleeting and then we roast, then fine....but when I refer to climo, I am implicating the mean of all years.

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EPS has been hammering NNE the last few cycles....ski areas should be looking great heading into 2nd week of March. We'll see if we can finally cash in here...we haven't seen ensemble runs this snowy all season for SNE, but we obviously have less wiggle room than NNE in this pattern.

 

image.png.e63940b0b6e9d634d9ec137163963c17.png

 

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For those who want a lesson on how a block can successfully work. Loop the 18z gfs and take a look at 500mb anomalies or vorticity from a NAMR point of view. What looks like something that should ram into our fannies is kept under us and redevelops. That high does not retreat but remains entrenched. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

For those who want a lesson on how a block can successfully work. Loop the 18z gfs and take a look at 500mb anomalies or vorticity from a NAMR point of view. What looks like something that should ram into our fannies is kept under us and redevelops. That high does not retreat but remains entrenched. 

yes, exactly. that is the type of response I’d expect. let’s hope that block gets as far W as possible

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

For those who want a lesson on how a block can successfully work. Loop the 18z gfs and take a look at 500mb anomalies or vorticity from a NAMR point of view. What looks like something that should ram into our fannies is kept under us and redevelops. That high does not retreat but remains entrenched. 

Scooter highs of yore…

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

For those who want a lesson on how a block can successfully work. Loop the 18z gfs and take a look at 500mb anomalies or vorticity from a NAMR point of view. What looks like something that should ram into our fannies is kept under us and redevelops. That high does not retreat but remains entrenched. 

Days and days of snow. We can only dream.

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2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, you have a blocked up Atlantic that forces confluence, a -EPO to get fresh Arctic air, and a strong west-based -NAO. that type of pattern has a high ceiling for the entire NE US

the change is that the trough is centered over the Plains, not the WC. that makes a huge difference

That’s a great pattern for the WC, Europe and maybe NNE.  That’s nothing for the coast.  

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

360 hours

Damn. Snowman all grown up is :(. We need at least 1 person who believes in magic.. 

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you guys always might be onto something and then you go right off the deep end. why? 

I'd vote human nature... 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Same. But, given some other atmospheric features, I did not expect to be crucified in the snow department. 

I don’t think anyone forecast this sort of a permanent deep PNA , we would have more wiggle room down to S SNE if this -PNA was more tame in SW (not 4 standard deviation height anomalies for 3 months )

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